Front page article of Learning Times: Resolutely blocking the cycle of economic weakness and expected weakening

During the analysis and research of the current economic situation and the deployment of economic work for the second half of the year, the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to do a good job in the economic work for the second half of the year, continuously promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous power, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of risks and hidden dangers, and promote the effective improvement of quality and the reasonable growth of quantity in the economy. Economic expectations are a comprehensive assessment of the future economic situation by various sectors of society, and this assessment will in turn affect the current economic situation. This mutually influencing circular relationship is an important variable that determines the stability of economic development. Currently, influenced by changes in the domestic and international economic development situation, China's economic growth is facing significant pressure, and its economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges. Expectations for future economic trends are also gradually weakening. Given that optimistic economic expectations are the fundamental prerequisite for sustained economic growth, we should attach great importance to the phenomenon of weakened economic expectations, scientifically analyze the various reasons that lead to weakened expectations, and take effective measures to firmly block the cycle of economic weakness and weakened expectations.

From a general perspective, changes in economic development stages are often the main cause of changes in economic expectations. In the past few decades, China has maintained a high economic growth rate and achieved remarkable economic achievements that have attracted worldwide attention. With the continuous improvement of development level, China's industrial competitiveness and scientific and technological research and development capabilities have gradually approached the international first-class level. The difficulty of maintaining high-speed growth is increasing day by day. The transformation of economic growth mode and speed shift, as well as the resulting changes in economic expectations, are inevitable normal phenomena. However, it should also be noted that the important factors leading to the gradual weakening of current economic expectations are closely related to abnormal changes in the external development environment. Under the influence of the "anti globalization" trend, a series of abnormal phenomena, including "trade protection" and "decoupling of industrial chains", have emerged in the international trade and industrial pattern, which are not conducive to the smooth operation of the global economy. In particular, some countries have taken extreme suppression and containment measures against China's high-tech industry, greatly impacting the stability of the evolution of China's economic development stage, significantly increasing the volatility of various economic indicators, and also bringing huge interference to the smooth formation of good economic expectations. In this context, to block the cycle of economic weakness and weakened expectations, it is necessary to adhere to a problem oriented approach, and implement precise measures against long-term and short-term challenges that constrain high-quality economic development in China. In the process of solving various development problems, continuously guide and improve expectations, and ultimately form favorable expectations that contribute to the improvement of the current and future economic situation.

Adapting to the normal evolution of China's economic development stage, and addressing the problems encountered during the development stage, starting from top-level design, a systematic and scientific response plan is formulated to gradually enhance the stability and endogenous capacity of the economic system. At the macro level, we should adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, solidly promote high-quality economic development, organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply side structural reform, exert the combined force of active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and point out the direction for the formation of good economic expectations. At the meso level, we will promote the deep integration of the digital economy with advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, accelerate the construction of modern industrial systems, cultivate and strengthen strategic emerging industries, and create more pillar industries, providing solid support for the formation of good economic expectations. At the micro level, establish and improve a regular communication and exchange mechanism with enterprises, encourage them to dare to venture, invest, and take risks, and actively create markets; Timely respond to the concerns and interests of the private economy, effectively solve practical difficulties, and continuously optimize a stable, fair, transparent, and predictable development environment; Increase policy support for the private economy, fully stimulate the vitality of the private economy, and provide sufficient impetus for the formation of good economic expectations.

In response to the impact of changes in the international industrial, trade, and technological landscape, more powerful and effective policy measures will be taken to enhance the resilience and risk resistance of the economic system. In terms of industrial structure, we attach great importance to the scale advantage of China's complete industrial system, accelerate the formation of a regional economic pattern with complementary advantages through in-depth implementation of regional coordinated development strategies, and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the continuous cultivation of new industries; In terms of trade pattern, we support conditional free trade pilot zones and free trade ports to connect with international high standard economic and trade rules, promote reform and opening up as a pilot, and further improve China's level of opening up to the outside world; In terms of technological landscape, we will strengthen original and leading technological breakthroughs, resolutely win the battle for key core technologies, and ensure the security of China's economic and industrial development.

From the perspective of development trends, short-term economic fluctuations can certainly affect and interfere with economic expectations, but due to the enormous development resilience and potential of China's economy, as well as the long-term positive fundamentals, as long as we always understand the development laws, enhance development capabilities, improve development strategies, and solve development problems in accordance with the requirements of high-quality development, we can definitely block the negative cycle of economic weakness and expected weakening, and transform into a positive cycle of expected strength and economic strength.