Former Deputy Prime Minister of Poland: "Soft connectivity" under the "the Belt and Road" will blow a breeze for the "New Cold War"
Introduction
Since the implementation of the "the Belt and Road" initiative ten years ago, it has attracted many countries and people to participate in it, especially the investment and construction of the "the Belt and Road" initiative in Central and Eastern Europe, which has improved the quality of hard infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe, and further promoted international relations and cooperation between all parties. Today, the "the Belt and Road" initiative needs to be adjusted to strengthen "soft connectivity" and carry out extensive exchanges and cooperation in the fields of culture and scientific research. Soft connectivity will also bring positive feedback to hard connectivity, promoting higher quality cooperation and development among participating countries.
It is estimated that more than 150 countries have joined the "the Belt and Road" initiative, with the total population of the participating countries accounting for about 75% of the world's total population and GDP accounting for more than half of the world's total. Some countries are actively considering joining the "the Belt and Road" and are likely to formally join it eventually, but there are still very few countries that choose to withdraw from the "the Belt and Road", including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the three eastern European countries. However, these three countries only account for less than 1% of global output and their contribution is negligible, so their exit has little impact.
For the other 14 CEE participating countries, the results of the "the Belt and Road" project are generally satisfactory, but there is still room for improvement. Events such as the COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have had an impact on the construction of the "the Belt and Road", otherwise the initiative will achieve greater results.
Although there are some obstacles and unfavorable international political atmosphere, and the "fear of China" instigated by the United States has increased the risk of the "new cold war", the expansion and deepening of economic cooperation with China has improved the economic and social production level and employment level of Central and Eastern European countries, which is the achievement of the first decade of the implementation of the "the Belt and Road".
From 2012 to 2022, the trade volume between China and Central and Eastern European countries increased from 52.1 billion US dollars to 133.6 billion US dollars, an increase of over 2.5 times. China's direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries increased from $1.5 billion in 2012 to $4.1 billion in 2021. However, there is asymmetry in capital flows, with only 1.74 billion US dollars in direct investment from Central and Eastern European countries in China in 2021.
Over the past 10 years, China has invested over 20 billion US dollars in the Central and Eastern European region, not only improving the quality of necessary "hard" infrastructure for effective economic operation, but also achieving the transfer of technological achievements. For example, recently, large electric vehicle battery factories built by Chinese investors in Hungary and Poland have created hundreds of thousands of job opportunities.
In the next few years, to promote infrastructure investment, relevant EU departments and Chinese leaders responsible for managing the Central and Eastern European part of the "the Belt and Road" need to better coordinate relevant projects. Not long ago, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz visited China, and newly appointed Chinese Premier Li Qiang also visited Germany and France, which will further promote international relations and cooperation among all parties. In addition to the 14 countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the 27 member states of the European Union can also serve as a bridge connecting the East and the West, promoting peaceful competition and fair cooperation, and achieving what China often calls a "win-win situation".
Against this background, now is the right time to make specific adjustments to the "the Belt and Road" initiative, especially to adjust policies towards European countries. We will not only not give up, but also continue to strengthen "hard connectivity", which means investing in infrastructure such as roads, bridges, tunnels, railways, airports, etc., especially in the transformation of green energy. But at the same time, the era of "soft connectivity" has also arrived.
The era of "soft connectivity" means that we need to engage in extensive exchanges and cooperation in cultural and scientific research fields. The exchange and cooperation in the field of scientific research have special significance. We should carry out mutual cooperation between universities, research institutions, and think tanks in non political and military sensitive fields such as engineering, medicine, agriculture, and development economics. However, these cooperation should be open to all branches and disciplines of basic science and applied science.
The haze of the current "new cold war" has led to increasing tension in the international situation. The "soft connectivity" under the "the Belt and Road" initiative may bring a fresh wind.
The Australian Institute for Strategic Policy has recently released a special report titled "Who is the Leader in the Key Technology Track?" which evaluates the 44 most important technologies for economic operation and development, and finds that China is in a leading position in 37 of them, while the United States ranks second; The remaining seven technologies are exactly the opposite, with the United States leading, China closely following, and other countries failing to make it to the top two. It can be seen that China has already taken a leading position in the field of technology in the world. Therefore, establishing and strengthening cooperation with Chinese research institutions and leading high-tech companies is in the interest of Central and Eastern European economies.
Poland, the largest country in Central and Eastern Europe, and other countries in the region are increasingly interested in Chinese culture. However, there are very few people who understand Chinese. Therefore, translating and disseminating Chinese literature achievements to the outside world is of great significance, and Chinese films and music should also go abroad more. The tourism industry was once interrupted by the COVID-19, but now it is booming again, which can improve people's understanding. Multilateral cultural exchanges can most effectively promote people to people communication. It not only has high value in itself, but also an important form of human capital investment.
It is worth emphasizing that in the long run, there is a positive feedback synergy between investment in "soft connectivity" of human capital and investment in "hard connectivity" of infrastructure, where one grows and the other grows accordingly. Therefore, expanding new ways of cooperation to support sustainable economic, social, and ecological development will bring substantial benefits. The "the Belt and Road" initiative will usher in a better and broader prospect and future in the second decade.
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