Focus on multiple variables in the second half of the year, China's semi annual economic report is released globally | China | Economy
On the 17th, China's semi annual economic report was officially disclosed: preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year increased by 5.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage point compared to the first quarter. From a quarterly perspective, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter and 6.3% in the second quarter.
On the same day, China News Agency held the "National Forum: Analysis of the 2023 China Economic Situation". Several experts at the meeting believed that the Chinese economy maintained an overall recovery trend in the first half of the year, and it is expected to achieve the 5% economic growth target this year. There are several key variables that need to be paid attention to in the second half of the year.
The overall recovery trend of the Chinese economy is maintained
"Despite internal and external pressures, the overall Chinese economy has maintained a recovery trend." Wang Yuanhong, Deputy Director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, stated at the meeting that data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's economic growth rate has recovered in the first half of this year amidst fluctuations.
When it comes to the highlights of China's economy in the first half of the year, Wang Yun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Foreign Economics at the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that based on relevant data, the overall recovery trend of China's consumption is relatively stable and in line with expectations. The fundamental role of consumption in economic development has significantly increased. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in society maintained a rapid growth, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth has basically returned to pre epidemic levels. The steady recovery of consumption has provided strong support for the effective improvement of economic quality and the reasonable growth of quantity.
Zhao Xijun, Co Dean of the China Capital Market Research Institute at Renmin University of China, pointed out that the growth rate of fiscal and financial data is faster than that of macroeconomic growth. Fiscal revenue, tax revenue, and financial data mostly exceed or approach double-digit growth, leading the single digit growth rate of the macroeconomy. Fiscal, monetary and other economic policies played an important role in boosting confidence, stabilizing expectations, and supporting economic recovery in the first half of the year.
Zhang Jianping, Vice Chairman of the China Society for Socioeconomic System Analysis and Research, stated that China's foreign trade showed a good growth trend in the first half of the year. In the first half of this year, although the demand in the European and American markets significantly contracted and the downward pressure on foreign trade increased, overall, China's foreign trade maintained a good growth trend in the first half of the year. This is mainly due to the joint efforts of policies and the support of systematic policy combinations, as well as the initiative of key foreign trade provinces and foreign trade enterprises to seize orders.
Key variables for the second half of the year: industry, real estate, and foreign trade
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Wang Yuanhong believes that China's economic growth is expected to recover to around 5% in the second half of the year, and it is expected to achieve the expected target for the whole year.
In the view of the Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, industry will be the most important marginal variable of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year. From the perspective of inventory and prices, in the past, China's economic structure was generally stronger in the industrial sector than in the service sector. However, this year, the recovery of the service sector is stronger than in the industrial sector, and the growth rate of the tertiary industry is the fastest. Based on indicators such as the actual inventory cycle trend, the inventory of industrial enterprise departments is still relatively high at present. However, the current low inventory is still structural and does not necessarily mean a reversal of the entire industrial inventory cycle. The turning point of the inventory cycle will depend on the relative strength of policy push up and external demand and real estate pull down.
Zhao Xiuchi, Dean of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Real Estate Research Institute at Capital University of Economics and Trade, stated that the real estate industry remains an important pillar industry of China's economy. In the first half of the year, the Chinese real estate market first rose and then fell. Although the sales volume of commercial housing decreased, the sales volume increased, and personal mortgage loans increased. In the future, patience and confidence are still needed to provide support to the real estate market through policy guidance. In the medium to long term, the real estate industry still has good development opportunities.
According to Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities, the world economic situation in the second half of the year is complex and China may face three major external challenges: firstly, the monetary tightening effect of developed economies will further manifest, and there is great uncertainty in the future operation of the global economy, especially in developed economies. China's stable economic growth should respond to the challenge of weak external demand; Secondly, stabilizing China's export market share may require arduous efforts; The third is to be prepared for the reshaping of global industrial and supply chains. In recent years, some Western countries have resorted to "small courtyards and high walls" and "decoupling and chain breaking", coupled with the international division of labor adjustment brought about by the epidemic, which will have a certain impact on China's pattern in global trade.
Guan Tao stated that China should firmly promote high-level opening up, facilitate trade and investment, participate in the global industrial and supply chain reshaping process with a more positive attitude, and shape China's new international competitive advantages; Maintain strategic composure, firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, especially by deepening supply side structural reform and enhancing the adaptability of supply to demand.
