Falling from 7.05 million to 4.1 million! Shenzhen Internet Celebrity Shenpan plummets by 40% in the market | Shenzhen | Shenzhen Internet Celebrity Shenpan
On July 15, 2020, Shenzhen introduced the "7.15 Real Estate Market Policy", which opened up comprehensive and strict control measures such as purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and loan restrictions to block loopholes. It is known by the market as the "strictest" real estate market regulation in Shenzhen's history. Three years have passed, and the real estate market in Shenzhen has undergone significant changes. In the eyes of industry insiders, what is the room for adjustment in the current real estate market regulation?
Second hand internet celebrity divine disk: dropped from 7.05 million to 4.1 million
In the past three years, the real estate market in Shenzhen has gone from peak to trough. The transaction volume of the new housing market has not changed significantly. According to data from Shenzhen Real Estate Information Network, 16200 new residential properties were sold in Shenzhen in the first half of 2023, compared to 16700 in the first half of 2020. However, the supply has increased significantly, and the number of "daily CDs" in the market has also decreased significantly. The turnover rate of many new houses is not ideal.
The transaction volume of the second-hand housing market has changed more significantly. According to data from the Leyoujia Research Center, the monthly transfer volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen exceeded 10000 units from July to August 2020, leading to the introduction of the "July 15th Property Market Policy". Subsequently, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen quickly entered a downward trend. The guidance price policy introduced in February 2021 has once again intensified the market, and the monthly transfer volume has entered a long-term low of 2000-3000 units.
In terms of housing prices, data from Leyoujia Research Center shows that in the past three years, the prices of second-hand houses in hot areas of Shenzhen have shown varying degrees of decline, with some areas experiencing a decline of over 15%. Taking the guidance price of second-hand houses as an example, before the launch of the "7.15 real estate market policy", in July 2020, 60% of the transaction prices of houses in Shenzhen had a deviation value of more than 10% from the guidance price, and the proportion of houses with a deviation value of more than 20% reached 27%. It was not until late 2022 that the market transaction price significantly approached the guidance price. In June 2023, nearly 50% of the properties in the Shenzhen market were sold at prices below the guidance price. The market is declining, and it is becoming more difficult for homeowners to sell their homes. The average transaction cycle has been extended from 113 days in the second half of 2020 to the current 168 days.
"Compared to the peak in 2020, housing prices in various areas of Shenzhen have all declined. Taking the Bagualing area in Futian, where I am located, as an example, the decline in housing prices generally exceeds 20%," said senior real estate agent Manager Zhang. Three years ago, some second-hand housing communities in Shenzhen were hyped up by investors, causing prices to rapidly rise and even being referred to as internet celebrity masterpieces in the market. However, currently, housing prices have significantly declined. Taking Longyueju Phase IV in Longhua District as an example, the transaction price of approximately 62 square meters of housing was speculated to around 7.05 million yuan at its peak. Currently, real estate agents are pushing for a price of around 4.1 million yuan for the same type of housing, which is nearly 1.2 million yuan lower than the guide price.
It is worth noting that in the past six months, homebuyers in Shenzhen have chosen to actively deleverage. According to data from Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, the proportion of fully paid second-hand residential purchases in Shenzhen increased to 32% in the first half of 2023. In the view of industry insiders, the number of Shenzhen homebuyers who tend to purchase houses in full has increased; If taking out a loan, be willing to pay an additional down payment and reduce the proportion of bank loans.
The expectation of "housing prices only rising but not falling" has been shattered
On July 15, 2020, Shenzhen issued a notice on further promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in our city. The core content of the notice includes that only those who have been in Shenzhen for at least 3 years and have completed social security for at least 3 years are eligible to purchase a house; Divorce between husband and wife, with a 3-year retroactive qualification for purchasing a house to calculate the number of units; In terms of down payment ratio, if there is no house or loan record, the down payment for ordinary residential properties is 50%, and for non ordinary residential properties is 60%; The transfer of value-added tax exemption period has been changed to 5 years; The luxury residential line has added restrictions such as a total price of 7.5 million yuan.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, Shenzhen's real estate market has also seen favorable policies, including adjustments to mortgage interest rates; The new regulations on housing provident fund have been introduced, increasing the support for provident fund loans for purchasing first homes, purchasing homes for families with multiple children, and purchasing green building housing; The adjustment of guidance prices for second-hand houses, among other benefits, has limited boosting effects on the market.
Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, pointed out that the environment of relaxing the guidance price for second-hand houses now is completely different from when the guidance price was launched at that time. Currently, residents are not very optimistic about their future income, work, and expectations for housing prices, so the motivation to buy a house with leverage is naturally relatively low. After the policy was lifted, there were actually more properties sold below the guidance price than before, indicating that housing prices are still continuing to decline.
For the upcoming market performance, Meilian Property believes that developers may introduce more home purchase discounts in the second half of the year, and the transaction volume of first-hand residential properties is expected to increase. If there is no favorable stimulus, the second-hand housing market may maintain its current level, and it is not ruled out that transaction volume will further decline.
Li Yujia believes that the relaxation of regulatory policies will have relatively weak support for the Shenzhen real estate market in the second half of the year. Even if the purchase restrictions are lifted, a portion of the population restricted from buying houses may be released, but overall the effect is not significant. Currently, the most fundamental issue is the huge mismatch between high housing prices and residents' income and job expectations. In addition, regarding the current real estate market as a whole, the housing supply in Shenzhen is significantly increasing, and the structure is adjusting towards public housing. The expectation of "only rising but not falling housing prices" has been broken, and "housing is for living, not for speculation" has begun to take root in people's hearts. So, the most important thing now is to stabilize the income expectations of residents and gradually improve their expectations for the market.
