Expose Poland's ambition?, Lukashenko's deployment of the "Polish surge" map during the meeting with Putin | Map | Poland
According to reports, on July 23rd local time, Belarusian President Lukashenko brought a map during his meeting with Russian President Putin, which showed the deployment of Polish troops near the border of the Russian White Alliance countries.
While strengthening the deployment of border forces, there are reports that Poland also plans to form a military corps with Lithuania and Ukraine to ensure security in western Ukraine.
How will Russia and Belarus respond to Poland's recent actions? What impact will this have on the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
Polish military increase on the Polish White border
On July 23rd, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Russian President Putin shook hands with Belarusian President Lukashenko
According to reports, the Polish government had previously announced that due to concerns about the Wagner Group's presence in neighboring Belarus, Poland plans to shift more troops eastward to the area bordering Belarus.
Military observer Shao Yongling stated that Lukashenko's visit to Russia at this time brought a map of "Polish reinforcements", indicating that Poland's increased military deployment in the border area between Poland and Belarus has caused significant security pressure on Belarus.
Shao Yongling:
Since last year, NATO has significantly increased its troops on the eastern front, and now Poland has added two more brigades in the border area with Belarus.
Belarus cannot cope with such security pressure, therefore, Lukashenko went to Russia to meet with President Putin with the intention of seeking support.
Poland plans new actions in western Ukraine
There are reports that Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine are planning to form a joint army to ensure security in the western region of Ukraine.
In Shao Yongling's view, this move by the Three Kingdoms is aimed at preventing extreme security issues such as the collapse of the Ukrainian front.
Shao Yongling:
Poland and Lithuania strongly support Ukraine and are concerned about its survival. They must also be prepared to face threats to western Ukraine in the event of Ukraine's collapse in the east and south, or Russia's further expansion of military operations against Ukraine.
If Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine form a so-called "joint army", it is unlikely to be truly used for combat, as NATO does not want to directly enter the Ukrainian crisis.
Does Poland have ambitions to occupy western Ukraine?
Data image: Lviv, a city in western Ukraine, was previously attacked
Regarding the plan to form a military corps in Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine, Putin believes that Poland has another plan, mainly to send troops to Ukraine to operate on its own territory in a legitimate manner. Lukashenko also accused Poland of having ambitions for the territory of western Ukraine and stated that the United States and the West support it.
Shao Yongling analyzed this.
Shao Yongling:
The western territories of Ukraine and Belarus were Polish territories between World War I and World War II. After the war, this part of the territory was incorporated into the Soviet Union, and Poland's territory moved 300 kilometers westward, acquiring part of Germany's territory. Therefore, there is historical evidence to suggest that Poland has ambitions over the territory of western Ukraine.
But now, this statement still belongs to a part of the public opinion and psychological warfare between the two sides. I believe that if Poland really annex the western territory of Ukraine, Poland may be "abandoned" by the European Union and NATO.
The border situation is still within controllable range
Data image: Polish army patrolling the border between Poland and Belarus
Military observer Shao Yongling further pointed out that currently, although the situation in the border areas of Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus is relatively chaotic, both Russia and NATO will strictly control the scale of the conflict.
Shao Yongling:
At the border of several countries, it also involves Russia's "enclave" Kaliningrad in the Baltic Sea, which has become the front line of confrontation between NATO and the Russian White Alliance countries. I think neither side has a real intention to attack, but both suspect that the other will make an attack. From this perspective, the likelihood of a major conflict actually occurring is not very high.
Donbass, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are the main focus of competition between Russia and Ukraine, and it is unlikely that major actions will occur in other directions.
Although NATO continues to provide arms assistance to Ukraine, the troops of its member countries are not involved in the conflict, which means that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is difficult to develop into a war between many countries.
