Expert: This El Ni ñ o event marks a return to the phenomenon of "southern flooding and northern drought" in China's precipitation. | Intensity | Zhou Bing | Precipitation | Climate | Appearance | El Ni ñ o | El Ni ñ o event
On June 8th local time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States issued an El Ni ñ o warning, announcing that this climate phenomenon has occurred and is expected to reach moderate to strong levels by autumn and winter.
When an El Ni ñ o event occurs, it has a significant impact on the Yangtze River Basin in China. From the perspective of temperature and precipitation, what specific impacts may it bring? On June 13th, Zhou Bing, Chief Climate Service Officer of the China Meteorological Administration, stated in response to a question from Pengpai News that in the past three years, especially in 2021 and 2022, China's precipitation has relatively experienced "drought in the south and flooding in the north". The appearance of this El Ni ñ o event marks the return of China's precipitation to the traditional meaning of "flood in the south and drought in the north".
Zhou Bing pointed out that the background of the 1998 Yangtze River catastrophic flood was a super strong El Ni ñ o event. "Currently, the prediction for this El Ni ñ o event is a moderately strong event, and we will closely monitor its development dynamics and changes in intensity."
El Ni ñ o is a climate phenomenon caused by abnormally high water temperatures in the central eastern Pacific equator. In the context of global warming, extreme abnormal weather and climate events have stronger intensity, longer duration, and more significant impacts. The emergence of this round of El Ni ñ o will continue to affect regional or global climate anomalies.
In terms of its impact on China, according to historical data from the National Climate Center, during the summer of the El Ni ñ o development year, the temperature in southern North China, central and northern China, central and eastern East China, and eastern Northwest China is prone to be higher. The number of hot days in the southwest of North China, the central part of Jiangnan, the northeast of South China, and the northern part of Xinjiang has exceeded 30 days.
El Ni ñ o will also bring extreme drought to some areas of our country. For example, the El Ni ñ o events that occurred from June 2009 to April 2010 brought significant heatwaves, and from late June to July 2009, the high temperatures affected 17 provinces in China. Meanwhile, eastern Inner Mongolia, western Jilin, and western Liaoning are experiencing severe meteorological droughts. Furthermore, it is worth noting that from autumn 2009 to spring 2010, the southwestern region of China experienced the most severe consecutive drought in autumn, winter, and spring since meteorological records began.
"Although no two El Ni ñ o events have been the same, there was a moderate intensity El Ni ñ o event from June 2009 to April 2010, which was very similar in both starting time and intensity to this year's El Ni ñ o event." Zhou Bing reminded us to pay close attention to the similarity between this El Ni ñ o event and the 2009/2010 El Ni ñ o event.
