Economic semi annual report released! Can China achieve its annual target? Will deflation come? What is the employment situation for young people? Employment | Economy | Full Year
On the 17th, China's economic performance report for the first half of the year was released: GDP grew by 5.5% year-on-year. From a quarterly perspective, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter and 6.3% in the second quarter.
In the first half of the year, the national consumer price index increased by 0.7% year-on-year.
The overall employment situation is stable. In the first half of the year, the average national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter. At the end of the second quarter, the total number of rural migrant workers was 187.05 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.
Can we achieve the expected annual economic development goals
🔹 Spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, Fu Linghui, Reporter Chen Suo photographed
What is the outlook for China's economic growth in the second half of the year? Can we achieve the expected annual target? In response, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated that in the first half of this year, with the comprehensive restoration of normal economic and social operations, the overall improvement of major indicators has laid a solid foundation for achieving the expected goals of economic and social development for the whole year.
"From the next stage of the situation, although the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and domestic economic development is also facing pressure, the long-term fundamentals of China's economy have not changed." Fu Linghui said that with the accumulation of positive factors promoting development, the economy is expected to continue to recover and improve.
One is that the driving force of consumption continues to strengthen. Since the beginning of this year, the consumption potential has gradually been released, and the contribution rate of the final consumption expenditure growth to economic growth in the first half of the year has reached 77.2%, which is significantly higher than the contribution rate of the entire year last year. In the next stage, the employment situation will continue to improve, and the income of residents will continue to increase, which is conducive to driving the improvement of their consumption ability and willingness. At the same time, promoting effective consumption policies is conducive to expanding consumption and promoting economic recovery.
The second is the positive development of the service industry. With the comprehensive restoration of normal economic and social operations, the growth of the service industry has significantly accelerated. The contribution rate of service industry growth to economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded 60%. In the next stage, the demand for service-oriented consumption such as cultural tourism and fitness and sports among residents will accelerate, while the demand for production such as research and development design and business exhibitions will increase, driving the service industry to maintain rapid growth.
The third is the development and growth of new driving forces. China has deeply implemented the innovation driven development strategy, with modern information technology, artificial intelligence, big data and other technologies widely applied. Innovative achievements continue to emerge, and new industries and products are showing good growth momentum. The continuous enhancement of innovation momentum in the next stage will inject new impetus into economic development.
The fourth is that the results of green transformation are evident. In the first half of the year, the production of new energy products such as new energy vehicles, solar cells, and charging stations increased by 35%, 54.5%, and 53.1%, respectively. In the next stage, there will be abundant momentum for green development, which will not only promote the improvement of economic development quality, but also assist in the transformation of economic growth momentum.
Fu Linghui stated that the Chinese economy is gradually getting rid of the impact of the epidemic and returning to a normal operating track. From the perspective of the whole year, although facing pressure and challenges, with the improvement of employment, increase in resident income, gradual enhancement of domestic demand, optimization and adjustment of supply structure, and growth and growth of new driving forces, the economy will steadily recover and the quality of development will continue to improve. "We have full confidence, conditions, and ability to achieve the expected goals and tasks of economic and social development for the whole year."
Will deflation come?
In June, the consumer price index of Chinese residents remained unchanged year-on-year, while the ex factory price index of industrial producers decreased by 5.4% year-on-year. Fu Linghui responded that overall, there is currently no deflation in the Chinese economy, and there will be no deflation in the next stage.
Price decline is considered one of the measures of deflation. However, Fu Linghui explained at the press conference on the same day that although prices are currently at a low stage, from indicators such as economic growth and money supply, the Chinese economy does not meet the conditions for deflation.
From the perspective of prices themselves, Fu Linghui stated that in the first half of this year, due to the weak global economic recovery, international energy prices fell, driving domestic energy prices lower. At the same time, domestic car companies are offering price reductions and promotions, and pork prices have turned down. In addition, with a relatively high base in the same period last year, the overall increase in consumer prices for Chinese residents has declined in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, consumer prices for residents increased by 0.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the first quarter.
He pointed out that in the first half of the year, the increase in food prices fell and energy prices decreased, but service prices slightly increased, and the core CPI increase remained relatively stable. In the first half of the year, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter.
Fu Linghui said that overall, the low rise of CPI is the result of multiple factors both domestically and internationally, and it is a phased process. Since the beginning of this year, China's economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, market demand has gradually expanded, production and supply have continued to increase, and the economic operation has shown a trend of recovery and improvement.
From the next stage, Fu Linghui pointed out that as the Chinese economy recovers, market demand gradually expands, and economic circulation is smooth, the supply and demand relationship will gradually improve.
From the perspective of food prices, the overall stability of China's grain production is conducive to ensuring the stability of food prices. The seasonal increase in demand for pork consumption in the later stage will also drive the price rebound.
From the perspective of industrial consumer goods prices, the input impact of low international energy prices may continue, but the impact of short-term price reductions and promotions by car companies is expected to gradually disappear.
From the perspective of service prices, the demand for services is steadily expanding, and service prices will steadily rise. In the second quarter, service prices increased by 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter.
Taking into account the above factors, combined with the gradual elimination of high base factors in the same period last year, the price increase will gradually return to a reasonable level.
Graduation season is approaching
What is the employment situation for the youth group in China?
In the first half of the year, the average national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, and the overall employment situation remained stable. At present, it is the graduation season for Chinese college students. What is the employment situation for young people?
Fu Linghui stated that driven by the overall economic recovery, the employment situation in China has improved overall this year. In the first half of the year, 6.78 million new urban jobs were created nationwide, an increase of 240000 compared to the same period last year. The labor participation rate of urban population aged 16 and above has steadily increased. In June, the number of urban employment increased significantly compared to the same period last year, and the employment scale has steadily expanded.
According to statistical data, the average national urban survey unemployment rate in the second quarter was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the national urban survey unemployment rate in June was 5.2%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of the employed population is at a relatively low level.
Fu Linghui stated that in June, the unemployment rate of urban labor force aged 25-59 was 4.1%, which is lower than the level before the epidemic in 2019, and the employment situation remains stable.
When it comes to the reasons for the improvement in employment, Fu Linghui said that in the first half of the year, China's gross domestic product increased by 5.5% year-on-year, which is significantly faster than last year. The expansion of the economic scale will inevitably lead to an increase in market demand, an increase in the demand for enterprise employment, and promote the overall improvement of the employment situation. In addition, the service industry has accelerated growth, and the contact service industries such as transportation, accommodation and catering, and tourism have shown good recovery momentum, which has significantly driven employment expansion. Since the beginning of this year, China has attached great importance to the employment situation, and various regions and departments have implemented the policy of prioritizing employment, which has also created favorable conditions for stable employment.
"It should also be noted that there are still overall pressure and structural problems in employment at present, with the coexistence of" job seeking difficulties "for young people and" recruitment difficulties "in some industries, and sustained efforts are needed to stabilize employment." Fu Linghui said that China attaches great importance to youth employment work, emphasizing the need to promote employment and entrepreneurship for young people, especially college graduates, in a more prominent position. Relevant departments have introduced a series of policies to promote employment for young people such as college graduates.
Fu Linghui stated that in the next stage, as the economy continues to recover and labor demand continues to expand, coupled with the continued effectiveness of employment stabilization policies, the employment situation is expected to remain generally stable. As young graduates gradually enter the workforce during the graduation season, the youth unemployment rate is expected to gradually decrease.
