Economic recovery requires maintaining strategic composure
The economy of a major country will inevitably attract attention. Faced with excessive concerns from the outside world due to downward pressure and exaggerated speculation on some phased issues, the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China made a heavy tone - "Economic recovery is a process of wave like development and tortuous progress. China's economy has enormous development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.". This judgment faces the difficulties and challenges in China's current economic recovery, and also reflects the strategic determination to achieve established goals in complex and severe situations.
Data can best depict "development" and "progress", "waves" and "twists and turns". In the first half of this year, the GDP grew 5.5% year on year, 1 percentage point faster than that in the first quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 8.2% year on year, 2.4 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter, fixed assets investment grew 3.8% year on year, and the total import and export value of goods trade denominated in RMB grew 2.1% year on year... The trend of economic improvement is obvious. However, it should also be noted that issues such as insufficient domestic demand, operational difficulties for some enterprises, and high risks and hidden dangers in key areas cannot be ignored. Taking consumption data as an example, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 2.5% year-on-year in July, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, which is lower than market expectations.
To correctly assess macroeconomics, it is necessary to observe the situation and grasp the essence through phenomena. After a stable transition in epidemic prevention and control, China's economy is gradually returning to a normal track of operation. The fluctuations and fluctuations that occur at this time are closely related to the resonance of internal and external shocks, and the scar effect of the epidemic. The recovery of the economic aggregate and structural adjustment require time; The production, distribution, circulation, and consumption of the national economy are a circular system, and their smooth recovery also requires a process. More importantly, the high-quality development we are promoting is an overall requirement for all aspects of economic and social development. The challenges of economic work are unprecedented, and cyclical structural contradictions are intertwined and overlapping, resulting in a non-linear evolution of economic operation. It is necessary to distinguish between inertia factors in short-term fluctuations and continuously accumulating new kinetic energy, and respond effectively according to the situation.
To solve a series of prominent problems, the most important thing is still to "do one's own thing well", and the specific response process emphasizes specificity and precision. In just one month, a package of policies such as "Measures for Restoring and Expanding Consumption", "Notice on Implementing Several Recent Measures to Promote the Development of Private Economy", "Notice on Improving the Government's Integrity Performance Mechanism and Optimizing the Development Environment of Private Economy", and "Opinions on Further Optimizing the Environment for Foreign Investment and Increasing the Attraction of Foreign Investment" have been intensively introduced. The relevant departments are studying and implementing financial support for the development of the real economy and preventing and resolving financial risks, adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in various regions, and activating the capital market with multiple arrows... This has released positive signals and responded to market concerns.
It will take time for the policy to take effect from its implementation. Given that the foundation for sustained economic recovery is still unstable and the development confidence of business entities urgently needs to be boosted, it is even more important to implement, refine, and maintain it regularly. Anchoring the direction of high-quality development, economically developed provinces should bravely take on major challenges, provinces with conditions should strive to make more contributions, and areas where conditions are temporarily unavailable should also avoid drinking poison to quench thirst. We must not follow the old path of low-level redundant construction and simple quantity expansion. Only by winning with quality and continuously shaping new competitive advantages can we support the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.
China's comprehensive economic advantages remain prominent. As the world's second largest economy, second largest consumer market, largest manufacturing country, largest goods trade country, second largest service trade country, and largest foreign exchange reserve country, our position continues to consolidate, laying a solid foundation for us to resist various risks and challenges and leap to a higher level of development. In the face of an external environment full of uncertainty and the possibility of greater downward pressure, we also need to strengthen our confidence, make good use of policy space, strengthen plan reserves, find the right direction for action, improve policy combination and coordination, and put more effort into expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence, and preventing risks. We must truly focus on practical work, strive for practical results, make each policy direction have its own focus, targeted, and promote joint efforts to achieve qualitative and effective economic growth and reasonable quantity growth, and achieve new results in promoting high-quality development with new weather and new measures.
