Economic operation maintains a recovery and development trend (Rui Finance) index | Manufacturing industry | Situation

Shouning County, Ningde City, Fujian Province continues to optimize the tax and business environment, increase the introduction of technical talents, promote the optimization and upgrading of the automotive air conditioning parts industry, and improve the quality and efficiency of enterprises. The picture shows workers working in the production workshop of a car air conditioning parts company in Shouning County recently.

Photo by Wang Wangwang

On June 30th, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In June, the Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing industry was 49.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are 53.2% and 52.3%, respectively, continuing to be in the expansion range. The Chinese economy maintains a recovery and development trend.

Manufacturing PMI slightly rebounds

In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. "Among the 21 industries surveyed, 12 showed a month on month increase, an increase of 4 compared to the previous month. The overall level of manufacturing industry prosperity has improved," said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics.

The production and demand indices have all rebounded. The production index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range, and the production activities of manufacturing enterprises have accelerated; The new order index was 48.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, industries such as automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery equipment, and computer communication electronic equipment are both in the expansion range, with a relatively fast release of production and demand.

The price index is higher than last month. Recently, some commodity prices have continued to decline, and the manufacturing market prices have generally fallen, but the magnitude has narrowed. The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are 45.0% and 43.9%, respectively, up 4.2 and 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. The proportion of enterprises with high raw material and logistics costs reflected in the survey has been declining for four consecutive months, and the cost pressure on enterprises has been alleviated.

Large enterprise PMI returns to expansion range. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Especially, the production index and new order index have been above the critical point for two consecutive months, and production and demand have continued to grow, which has a significant driving effect on the manufacturing PMI this month.

Some key industries continue to expand. The PMI of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries were 50.9% and 51.2%, respectively, an increase of 0.5 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, both of which have rebounded for two consecutive months, and the expansion of the industry has increased; The PMI of the consumer goods industry is 50.7%, indicating stable industry operation.

Moderate and rapid growth in non manufacturing industries

In June, the non manufacturing business activity index was 53.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point. The non manufacturing industry has maintained an expansion trend since the beginning of this year.

The service industry continues to recover. The business activity index of the service industry is 52.8%, continuing to maintain a trend of recovery and development. From an industry perspective, the business activity index of aviation transportation, postal express delivery, telecommunications, broadcasting and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries are all in the high prosperity range of 60.0% or above, and the total business volume is growing rapidly. From market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 60.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an increase in confidence among service industry enterprises. Among them, the expected index of business activities in industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, catering, telecommunications, broadcasting and television, and satellite transmission services is all higher than 67.0%, indicating that the industry's development prospects continue to improve.

The construction industry is expanding rapidly. The business activity index of the construction industry was 55.7%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, and it is still in a relatively prosperous range. The production of the construction industry has maintained rapid growth. Among them, the business activity index and new order index of the civil engineering and construction industry were 64.3% and 53.9%, respectively, an increase of 2.6 and 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The expansion of production and demand in the civil engineering and construction industry has accelerated. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 60.3%, which has been consistently in the high prosperity range of over 60.0% since the beginning of this year. Construction industry enterprises have strong confidence in the development of the industry.

Cai Jin, Vice President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that although the indicators of non manufacturing business activities have fallen, they still maintain a level of over 53%, indicating that the non manufacturing industry is still maintaining a moderate and rapid growth trend. Stabilizing expectations and cultivating new demand growth points are still important directions for the stable and orderly development of the Chinese economy.

The overall trend of production and operation continues to expand

In June, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be in the expansion range.

The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index in the PMI indicator system that reflects the changes in industry output during the current period. In June, the manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, were 50.3% and 53.2%, respectively. "The comprehensive PMI output index indicates that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continue to expand," said Zhao Qinghe.

However, at the same time, the pressure on market demand remains prominent.

"Enterprises still have a strong feeling of insufficient market demand, especially the continuous contraction of foreign demand, which is a problem that the current economy needs to pay attention to." According to Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, a survey of enterprises showed that 61.1% of enterprises reported insufficient market demand in June, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, once again breaking a historical record. The new export order index was 46.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline, indicating a sustained contraction in exports, which is an important factor leading to insufficient demand.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that it is necessary to further improve the comprehensive effect of expanding domestic demand, focus on enhancing the driving role of government investment in overall social investment, effectively boost the confidence of enterprises in production and investment, and drive the continuous improvement of the employment situation. We need to rely on the recovery of the large-scale domestic market, drive the continuous recovery of enterprise production and operation activities, and promote economic recovery and improvement.

Follow official account: People's Daily Finance

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