Economic Daily Jin Guanping: Confidence in Economic Recovery and More Patience in Growth | Decline | Economy
In May, the growth rate of major economic indicators in China has slowed down, causing some people to worry about the prospects of economic recovery. From the domestic and international situation, temporary fluctuations in some indicators during the economic recovery process are normal phenomena. At present, the overall economic operation of our country continues to recover, and the foundation for stabilization still needs to be consolidated, but the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. We should not only have firm confidence in doing economic work well, but also be more patient with economic recovery.
Observing economic performance, both year-on-year and month on month comparisons. In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the main indicators of production demand decreased, mainly due to the impact of the increase in the base in the same period last year. Excluding the base factor, the overall economic operation remained stable. From a month on month perspective, the growth rate of the main production demand indicators has improved to varying degrees. For example, in May, the added value of industries above designated size in China increased by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April; The month on month growth rate decreased from the previous month to an increase of 0.63%; The average growth rate over the past two years has increased by 0.8 percentage points compared to April, indicating a marginal improvement in industrial production.
Overall, China's economic operation has maintained a recovery trend, especially in terms of multiple indicators related to structural optimization.
But it should also be noted that the current external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and global trade and investment are slowing down, directly affecting the process of China's economic recovery. The insufficient effective demand remains the main contradiction restricting China's economic growth, and the economic operation presents a structural recovery characteristic of "uneven heating and cooling".
Despite facing pressure and challenges, the long-term positive trend of China's economy has not changed. Since the beginning of this year, macroeconomic policies have been working together to alleviate the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakened expectations. The basic characteristics of China's abundant economic potential, great resilience, strong vitality, ample room for maneuver, and abundant policy tools have not changed, and high-quality development still has a series of significant advantages. Recently, many executives from multinational corporations have sparked a wave of visits to China, fully demonstrating the international community's confidence in the prospects of China's economic development.
A series of positive changes indicate that we need to maintain strategic composure and be more patient in the comprehensive recovery of the economy. We should not misjudge the overall trend and mainstream of the Chinese economy due to short-term fluctuations, nor should we act recklessly under pressure. We should take more precise and effective measures to stabilize expectations, increase momentum, and strengthen confidence in response to changes in the economic situation.
Focusing on leveraging policy effectiveness, stimulating the vitality of business entities, and stabilizing market confidence, recent macroeconomic policies have continuously released positive signals. The State Council executive meeting held on June 16th focused on four aspects: increasing macroeconomic policy regulation, focusing on expanding effective demand, strengthening and optimizing the real economy, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas. A series of policy measures were studied and proposed. I believe that with the continuous manifestation of macroeconomic policy effects, the gradual recovery of market demand, and the continuous adjustment of supply structure, China's economic development momentum will continue to strengthen, the structure will continue to improve, and the situation will continue to improve.