Economic Daily: How to View the "Population Signal" of First tier Cities Economic and Social | City | Population

The spatial structure of China's economic development is undergoing profound changes, and the characteristic of population growth and decline between cities may become more apparent in the future. We need to understand, adapt to, and lead the new normal of population development, better coordinate the relationship between population, economy, society, resources, and environment, and form a positive interaction between population development and economic and social development.

The 2022 statistical bulletins have been released in various regions recently, and the permanent population of the four major first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has all shown negative growth, which has attracted widespread attention and discussion.

Data shows that at the end of 2022, the permanent residents of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou were 21.843 million, 24.7589 million, and 18.7341 million, respectively, a decrease of 43000, 135400, and 76500 compared to the previous year. The permanent population of Shenzhen is 17.6618 million, a decrease of 19800 compared to 2021. This is also the first time since the establishment of Shenzhen that there has been negative growth in the permanent population.

As a first tier city, population changes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have always been of great concern. However, the changes in population are not simple arithmetic problems, but complex equations containing numerous variables. Although the permanent population of the four major cities has decreased simultaneously, the underlying reasons should not be generalized and require specific analysis. Guangdong Province, where Guangzhou and Shenzhen are located, has the largest total floating population in the country. In 2022, due to factors such as frequent outbreaks of the epidemic, the number of floating population outside the province decreased by 692000. Among them, Guangzhou has suffered a particularly severe epidemic, coupled with the influence of the Spring Festival, a large number of migrant workers have chosen to leave Guangzhou to observe and return home early. The partial return of migrant population in a short period of time has led to a phased contraction in the size of the permanent population. The situation in Shenzhen is similar, and some analysts believe that the adjustment of Shenzhen's household registration policy has also had a certain impact. The Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics predicts that with the development of the economy and society, the long-term stable growth trend of Guangdong's permanent population will not change. It is expected that the permanent population of Guangdong will gradually return to stable growth in 2023.

The decrease in the permanent population of Beijing and Shanghai is mainly due to their active and reasonable control of population size as mega cities based on resource conditions and functional positioning. Beijing regards the evacuation of non capital functions as a breakthrough point to solve the "big city disease" and optimize and enhance the functions of the capital. In recent years, the permanent population has shown a dual decline trend in growth rate, and has achieved the goal of reducing the permanent population of the six urban areas by 15% compared to 2014, becoming the first mega city in China to achieve reduced development. The Shanghai Urban Master Plan proposes to strictly control the size of the permanent population and set a scale of around 25 million people as the target for permanent population regulation by 2035. In fact, there has been a simultaneous decline in the permanent resident population in Beijing and Shanghai in 2017.

Expanding our horizons, we can see that in contrast to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, many provincial capitals and new first tier cities in the central and western regions have become "winners of competition". In 2022, 17 out of 24 cities with a GDP of trillions of yuan achieved positive growth in permanent population, ranked by increment as Changsha, Hangzhou, Hefei, Xi'an, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Jinan, Chengdu, Ningbo, Nanjing, Suzhou, Quanzhou, Fuzhou, Wuxi, Nantong, and Chongqing. Among them, the permanent population growth of Changsha, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Xi'an is all over 100000 people, with 181300 people, 172000 people, 169000 people, and 122900 people respectively. Among the top five cities, four are provincial capitals in the central and western regions. In addition, the two central and western provincial capitals of Guiyang and Nanchang have also achieved an increase of 118100 and 100600 people respectively.

Currently, the spatial structure of China's economic development is undergoing profound changes, with central cities and urban agglomerations becoming the main spatial forms that carry development elements. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, new progress has been made in regional coordinated development, the development level in the central and western regions has continued to improve, the accessibility of infrastructure has become more balanced, the gap between urban and rural areas and regions has been continuously narrowing, and industrial development has provided more employment opportunities. For example, in recent years, Changsha has vigorously implemented the "strong provincial capital" strategy, improving its economic, spatial, and talent levels. Industries such as equipment manufacturing, biopharmaceuticals, and cultural entertainment have flourished, with obvious advantages in education, medical care, and cultural tourism resources. It has been named the most fortunate city in China for 15 consecutive years. These are the passwords for talent retention in this "internet celebrity city".

Under the background of the peak of the national population and the active regional mobility, and under the influence of multiple factors such as the concept of urban governance, the adjustment of industrial structure, the change of fertility concept, the registered residence policy, and the cost of living, the characteristics of population growth between cities may become more obvious in the future. The negative population growth in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen needs to be taken seriously but should not be overly anxious. In the long run, the demographic dividend of a country or city depends not only on the total quantity but also on the quality; It depends not only on population, but also on talent. We need to understand, adapt to, and lead the new normal of population development, better balance the relationship between population, economy, society, resources, and environment, optimize regional economic layout and land spatial system, accelerate the shaping of modern human resources with excellent quality, abundant total quantity, optimized structure, and reasonable distribution, and form a positive interaction between human development and economic and social development.