"Du Suri" triggers the first red alert of the year! Will typhoons heading north cause extreme inland precipitation? Expert Interpretation of Dussuri | Typhoon | Warning

From 10am on July 26th to 6pm on July 27th, the Central Weather Bureau issued a typhoon red warning for five consecutive times. Typhoon Dussuri, the 5th typhoon of this year, is located on the northeast coast of the South China Sea and is expected to move northwest at a speed of 10-15 kilometers per hour. It will make landfall in the southeastern coastal area of China from the morning of the 28th to the morning. What is the latest situation? How should we prevent and respond? "News 1+1" connects Dong Lin, Chief Forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, and Huang Zhigang, Chief Service Expert of the Fujian Provincial Meteorological Bureau, to jointly pay attention to the super typhoon "Dussuri", the first red warning of the year!

Typhoon No. 5, Dussuri, is coming with great force!

It was generated on July 21st and completed a four day jump from a tropical storm to a super typhoon in just two days on July 23rd and 24th, maintaining the super typhoon level for nearly 57 hours at one point. At present, the 5th typhoon of this year, "Dussuri", is moving rapidly and has directly hit the southeastern coastal areas of China. So, what is the impact of "Du Suri"'s strong attack? Click on the video to learn more information.

How to deal with the approaching typhoon "Dussuri"?

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, Typhoon Dussuri, the fifth typhoon of this year, is most likely to make landfall in the southeastern coastal areas of China from the morning of the 28th to the morning. In the past two days, Fujian, Guangdong, and Zhejiang have all been on high alert, implementing preventive measures in advance. According to predictions, the rainfall brought by this typhoon is not limited to the southeast coast. It is expected that on the 28th, "Dussuri" will begin to affect the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. So, what specific preparations are being made in various regions? Learn about poking videos ↓↓

How can short-term approaching forecasts be effective in practical combat?

Huang Zhigang, Chief Service Expert of Fujian Provincial Meteorological Bureau: Short term approaching forecast and early warning information should be refined to townships. After being released to the responsible persons of townships through information technology, they will adopt a series of disaster prevention linkage mechanisms and measures. The meteorological department provides warning information, but after the warning information is produced and released, it is not over. It is crucial for the people and disaster prevention responsible persons at the forefront of receiving information, who are in the most dangerous areas, to know how to take action after receiving the information. So the short-term approaching forecast information is actually a "button" for disaster prevention and reduction.

How is the "Short term Proximity Forecast System" in China undergoing changes and upgrades?

Huang Zhigang, Chief Service Expert of Fujian Provincial Meteorological Bureau: It has been 7 years since Typhoon Moranti, and our technological means are becoming increasingly advanced. For example, back then we used the Fengyun-2 meteorological satellite, but now we have used the Fengyun-4 meteorological satellite. At the same time, we have also upgraded 8 Doppler weather radars in the province, and these monitoring methods and information have been fully integrated into our short-term approaching forecasting system. In 2016, our short-term forecasting system was not yet as advanced and was in the initial stage of exploration. However, seven years later today, we have built a very complete short-term forecasting system, and the mechanism of disaster linkage is also linked to this system. The products produced through the short-term forecast system and the warning information released can directly reach the disaster prevention responsible persons at the township level. After receiving this information, they can quickly take disaster prevention measures.

Will Typhoon Dussuri's northward movement cause extreme inland precipitation? Expert interpretation

A question

What regions have been brought strong winds and rain by "Du Suri"?

At 17:00 on July 27th, the center of "Du Suri" was about 360 kilometers southeast of Xiamen City, Fujian Province, with a maximum wind force of 16 levels near the center. It is expected that "Du Suri" will make landfall along the coast from Dongshan to Putian in Fujian from the morning of the 28th, with an intensity of strong typhoon or super typhoon.

On the afternoon of the 27th, the outer cloud system on the north side of the typhoon had already affected northern Fujian and Zhejiang. Precipitation was generally observed in the coastal cities and counties of northern Fujian and Zhejiang, with Ningde, Wenzhou, and Taizhou receiving larger amounts of precipitation; The typhoon's main cloud system covers the southern part of Taiwan Island, with significant precipitation on the windward slopes of the southern and eastern sides, with a maximum daily precipitation of 999 millimeters; The central coastal areas of Fujian Province have the strongest winds, with multiple stations experiencing strong winds of force 10 or above.

From July 27 to 28, there were torrential rains or torrential rains in Taiwan Island, Fujian, eastern Guangdong, eastern and southern Zhejiang, and eastern Jiangxi, and torrential rains in eastern Taiwan Island.

The second question of the national precipitation forecast map

Will the northward movement of "Dussuri" after landfall lead to extreme precipitation in inland areas?

The "Dusurai" cloud system covers a large area, has strong intensity, and has a long and wide impact. After landing, its residual circulation will maintain for a long time and go northward into the interior, and northern provinces may have large-scale heavy rain to rainstorm. At present, there is still significant uncertainty in the northward path of "Du Suri". After its landing in the coastal areas of Fujian and Guangdong, it may successively affect provinces such as Jiangxi, Anhui, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Hebei, Tianjin, Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Jilin. Under its influence, moderate to heavy rain will successively occur in parts of the eastern part of southwest China, the eastern part of northwest China, the Huanghuai River in north China and northeast China, and rainstorm or heavy rainstorm will occur locally.

It should be noted in the national precipitation forecast map that typhoons penetrating inland may be stagnant on land for a long time due to the influence of circulation situation, and extreme precipitation may occur due to the influence of typhoon inverted trough superimposed terrain. Therefore, the above-mentioned areas need to be extra vigilant and do a good job of typhoon prevention and emergency work in advance.

Three Questions

Apart from Moranti, what other typhoon does Dussuri, which is deep inland, resemble?

From the perspective of its movement path, "Dussuri" and Typhoon "Moranti" in 2016 have similarities in their paths. Both are typhoons with small structures and strong intensity. "Moranti" only observed strong winds of force 10 or above in the near sea 3 hours before landfall, and rapidly strengthened to force 16. However, "Dussuri" currently has better sea surface temperature conditions in its forward area than "Moranti", and special attention should be paid to its sudden strong winds. For densely populated cities like Xiamen, which may be directly affected by typhoons, precautions need to be taken in advance.

Typhoon "Dusuri" is compared with typhoon paths such as Typhoon "Iris" in 1959, Typhoon "Heber" in 1996, Typhoon "Madham" in 2014, and Typhoon "Moranti" in 2016. In addition, "Du Suri" and the 1996 super typhoon "Heber" also have similarities in the weather situation and path. Both the westerly belt system was northerly when they appeared, and both were northward after landfall.

Four Questions

"Du Suri" is one of the typhoons with the most severe impact on the coastal areas of Fujian since the 21st century?

The answer is yes. At present, although the intensity of "Du Su Rui" has weakened compared to the 26th, the environmental conditions in the future are still conducive to maintaining or even strengthening its intensity. From the current forecast, the landfall intensity of 45 to 52 meters per second makes it highly likely to become the most severe typhoon affecting Fujian after Moranti in 2016.

On September 15, 2016, on the streets of Xiamen, Fujian, military officers and soldiers were clearing trees that had been blown off by strong winds. Image/Xinhua News Agency

Five Questions

Will the new typhoon "Embryo" replenish energy for "Dussuri"?

The newly formed tropical depression may strengthen into the 6th typhoon of this year, Kanu, in the next 24 hours, with a distance of approximately 2000 to 2500 kilometers from Dussuri in the future. At present, there may not be a significant double typhoon interaction on the path, but the easterly wind on its north side may provide abundant water vapor for the weakened low-pressure circulation of "Dussuri" in the future, which will help maintain the residual circulation of "Dussuri" and increase precipitation on land.

Six Questions

How to prevent the impact of typhoons and wind and rain?

In the next two days, "Du Suri" will affect the eastern part of South China, with a high risk of wind and flood disasters in agriculture, forestry, and fishery.

Meteorological experts suggest that areas affected by typhoons need to strengthen risk and hazard investigation and disaster prevention, timely transfer people from dangerous areas, and strengthen safety management in transportation, tourism, and urban operations. Ships sailing in the southeastern waters of our country need to return to the port in a timely manner to avoid the wind or the affected area, and maritime operators should evacuate in advance.

In the city, tower cranes should stop working and lower their height; Billboards and other materials should be properly reinforced. Vehicles should be parked at a high place to avoid flooding caused by typhoons and rainfall. Residents can prepare some drinking water and power banks to prevent brief water and power outages.

At the same time, "Du Su Rui" may cause obstruction of early rice harvest and late rice planting, crop lodging, farmland waterlogging, and damage to economic forests, fruits, agriculture, and fisheries. It is recommended to take preventive measures in advance. Due to its impact penetrating inland areas, attention should be paid to preventing secondary disasters that may be caused by local heavy rainfall in the Huanghuai, North China, eastern parts of the Southwest, and eastern parts of the Northwest.