Do you really want to take a detour?, This armed conflict area | Armenia | Armed

On May 25th, Armenian Prime Minister Pashnian attended the expanded meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Commission in Moscow, Russia, stating that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to recognize each other's territorial integrity. Based on this, it can be said that we have made good progress in coordinating bilateral relations. Pashniyan also mentioned the issue of ensuring the rights and security of residents in the Nagorno Karabakh region within the framework of international mechanisms.

Azerbaijani President Aliyev also stated that the Albanian side has no territorial claims against Armenia. Considering that Armenia officially recognizes the Naka region as a part of Azerbaijan, it is possible to reach a peace agreement between the two countries, which is an important prerequisite for achieving normalization of bilateral relations on the basis of recognizing each other's territorial integrity.

On that day, Pashniyan and Aliyev held trilateral talks with Russian President Putin.

For a while, the resurgence of the Aya armed conflict in August last year seems to have turned the tide, and the resolution of the Naqa issue is expected to usher in a new opportunity.

On May 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashniyan held talks in the Russian capital Moscow, Xinhua News Agency / American Union

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Three major reasons contribute to a new turning point

The Naqa conflict has a long history and has lasted for over 30 years since its outbreak in the late 1980s. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the controversy over the ownership of Naka escalated from ethnic conflict to national conflict. After 1992, Azerbaijan and Armenia engaged in a prolonged war, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties and millions becoming refugees. In 1994, with the mediation of Russia, the two countries achieved a prolonged ceasefire. But the Naqa issue has not been fundamentally resolved, and the relationship between the two neighboring countries has always been hostile, with intermittent conflicts.

The conflict between the two countries escalated sharply in September 2020. On November 9 of the same year, a ceasefire agreement was signed with the mediation of Russia, but the agreement was not well respected. After the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, the situation in Naqa has once again become tense. The Armenian side has taken the lead in making substantial compromises and concessions, bringing new hope to the resolution of the conflict.

But Armenia's compromise is not unconditional. Pashnian emphasized that "the rights and security issues of the people in the Naka region should be discussed between Stepanakert and Baku", and stated that if Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, the Albanian side should also recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia. Nevertheless, all parties still believe that the Naqa conflict has ushered in a new turning point.

One is the reversal of the conflict situation. In the mid-1990s, the ceasefire was finally achieved because of the civil unrest in Azerbaijan, when the pro Türkiye regime of Erich Bey was overthrown. After returning from Moscow, Gaidar Aliyev wanted to stabilize the domestic situation, create conditions for the development of energy in the Caspian Sea, and accept the political reality of losing Naka and its surrounding areas at that time. After the escalation of the conflict in 2020, Azerbaijan regained its overall advantage on the battlefield with the help of Türkiye. In this situation, the situation forces Armenia to change its stance.

Secondly, there has been a change in the stance of major powers. Against the backdrop of the escalating crisis in Ukraine, there have been significant changes in the international landscape. Russia and the West are in a comprehensive confrontation and are unwilling to see another prolonged conflict near the Black Sea. They both hope that both sides can exercise restraint and prevent armed conflicts from escalating again.

Thirdly, there is a significant widening gap in economic strength between the two countries. In recent years, Azerbaijan has relied on oil production and exports, not only quickly recovering its vitality, but also accounting for over 60% of its gross domestic product in the three countries of the South Caucasus. Its economic strength has significantly increased, and military construction has been fully guaranteed. However, Armenia, which is poor in resources, inland and has a small population, has to rely on Russia economically because of the traffic blockade of Azerbaijan and its ally Türkiye, and its GDP is only 1/4 of that of Azerbaijan. Against the backdrop of escalating Western sanctions against Russia, the Armenian economy has made matters worse and is unable to sustain a fierce armed conflict.

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Current unresolved challenges

The causes of the Naqa conflict are very complex and long-lasting. To come up with a solution that is acceptable to all parties and truly solve the problem, it requires a difficult and complex process. Although the two sides have determined the general direction and principles after the trilateral talks in Moscow, which have made crucial progress in the negotiations, there are still some very specific issues involved, especially regarding the legal status and security issues of the Naka region, which need to be finally determined through subsequent negotiations. Therefore, there may still be significant obstacles that are difficult to overcome.

On November 20, 2020, local people buried soldiers killed in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at a cemetery in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia.

The Naka region was once an autonomous prefecture of Azerbaijan during the Soviet era, but Armenians made up the majority of the local population. In 1988, local residents held demonstrations demanding the correction of "historical injustice" and declared independence from Azerbaijan. This was supported by the Armenian side, and the region has since been in a state of separation. Both sides went from expelling residents of each other's ethnic groups to engaging in a major conflict. In 1992, the OSCE also established a Minsk group consisting of 12 countries, with Russia, France, and the United States serving as co chairs, to mediate the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, but no results were achieved.

After the outbreak of a new round of Naqa conflict in 2020, Russia intervened and signed an agreement between the two sides. Russia also sent nearly 2000 peacekeeping troops to the Naqa region to separate the two sides and ensure the implementation of the agreement. However, the conflict erupted again in less than a year.

In addition, Naka has its own independent political institution, but it has not received international recognition. This institution has always claimed that Naka is an independent "republic", and this time the People's Assembly of Naka has publicly stated that it does not recognize the unilateral decision made by the Armenian Prime Minister and refuses to return to Azerbaijan's control. If the Naqa regime does not accept the decision of the Asian side, it may lead to more complex consequences.

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The prospects are still not optimistic

The consensus formed through trilateral negotiations can be said to be the biggest breakthrough achieved in the Naca issue negotiations over the past 30 years. Armenia's ability to make principled changes on the issue of Naqa ownership is clearly beneficial for the future resolution of conflicts through negotiation rather than war, and it is also a prospect that the international community hopes to see.

On November 23, 2022, Prime Minister Pashniyan of Armenia presided over the meeting of the Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization held in Yerevan by Xinhua News Agency.

From the statement of Azerbaijani President Aliyev, it is possible to reach a peace agreement between the two countries, and the relations between Aya and Armenia and Türkiye are likely to be fundamentally improved. Pashniyan congratulated President Erdogan of Türkiye on his victory in the general election on May 28, and expressed his "urgent" desire to promote the normalization of bilateral relations. Asia, Afghanistan, and Russia have also decided to continue holding vice prime ministerial level talks in Moscow after a one week gap between the trilateral leadership talks, to discuss the specific details of signing the agreement, such as lifting traffic blockades and restoring border order.

However, based on comprehensive analysis, the future prospects are still not optimistic.

First of all, the game of great powers in Eurasia continues to escalate, and the power pattern is still undergoing dramatic changes. In the past, Armenia relied on the support of Russia, while behind Azerbaijan was Türkiye, a member of NATO. In the context of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia and Türkiye have more coordination at the regional level, and the development of Russia Arab relations is relatively smooth, which seems to be beneficial to the normalization of bilateral relations between Asia and Afghanistan, but the involvement of the United States and NATO will make the situation more complicated. Pashniyan is considered to hold a pro Western stance, and the United States also believes that it can take this opportunity to make Russia lose Armenia, a steadfast ally, and completely reject Russia's influence in the South Caucasus region. This may trigger a new round of geopolitical confrontation, and Asia, as parties, may be trapped in a vortex and find it difficult to extricate itself.

Secondly, there are still many uncertain factors in the mainstream public opinion of both countries. The rising nationalist sentiment may cause significant disruptions to the next negotiation process, especially since the defeat in 2020 when the domestic situation in Armenia has been unstable. The opposition frequently creates various political crises and wants to seize power, which may trigger large-scale unrest in Armenia and also cast a shadow over the resolution of the Naqa conflict. The nationalist sentiment within Azerbaijan has also resulted in the government having little room for compromise in negotiations with Armenia.

The third possibility is that the relationship between Armenia and Russia may further become strained, with unpredictable results. Pashniyan announced at a press conference on May 22 that if the Collective Security Treaty Organization is deemed "incompetent," Armenia will withdraw from the organization. Due to the special situation, Russia places greater emphasis on cooperation with Azerbaijan. It is not ruled out that the Armenian government will decide to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization after the signing of the peace agreement, blaming Russia's "inaction" for the failure of Naka and instead seeking to join the European Union or even NATO, just like Georgia and Moldova. From then on, Russia may find it difficult to tolerate this and the conflict between Asia and Russia will intensify.