Chinese container ships shuttle through the Arctic shipping route, and the Arctic Ocean is so hot that there is almost no ice transportation | shipping route | Arctic

"It's too hot, autumn pants didn't come in handy. Taking a boat to see the floating ice turned into ice debris," photographer Xiao Nan, who just checked in on the world's northernmost dog farm, Green Dog, told First Financial about the impression of the Arctic. "The dogs in the Arctic also feel dizzy from the heat."

Polar climate is often an amplifier of global warming. When the northern hemisphere once again "boils" this summer, the widespread melting of global sea ice has once again drawn attention to a waterway that is mostly covered by ice and snow throughout the year.

Under the unprecedented high temperature warning, coupled with the continuous optimization of geological exploration conditions, the abundant natural resources and potential as a maritime trade channel of the Arctic have been continuously paid attention to and explored.

In early July, a container ship named "New New Polar Bear" successfully made its maiden voyage from St. Petersburg, Russia. According to the plan, it will pass through a specific route in the Arctic, and according to the ice conditions, it is planned to dock in Shanghai, China in mid August.

The northern waterway welcomes container ships from China and Russia

In the existing maritime transportation pattern, the economic and time costs of routes from East Asia to Western Europe, the east coast of North America, or from Europe to the west coast of North America are high. For example, maritime transportation from East Asia to Western Europe, using the Suez Canal, has a range of 18000 to 20000 kilometers. All countries are seeking a shortcut.

With climate change, the reduction of ice caps and the accelerated melting of glaciers, taking the Arctic route is no longer just a matter of paper. Public information shows that the Arctic navigation system mainly includes the Northwest Navigation System, the Northeast Navigation System, and the Central Navigation System that crosses the North Pole. Among the three waterways, the northern waterway located in the offshore waters of the Arctic Ocean off the northern coast of Russia is currently the most concerned by all parties, which is also the shortest maritime distance between Europe and Asia.

Yuan Jing, the person in charge of Xinxin Shipping, told First Financial that the current international situation, transportation capacity costs, and climate conditions are the original intention of the company to consider opening a new northern shipping route.

In his view, economically speaking, the northern waterway has significant advantages due to its short range, low cost, reduced energy consumption and emissions. According to calculations, this waterway is one-third shorter than the 45-50 days required for transportation through the Suez Canal. Even with another northern route departing from Arkhangelsk, Russia, the journey takes about 15 days.

Nenets and reindeer living along the Arctic Northeast Passage in Russia. Information from Xinhua News Agency

"In addition, the advantage of northern shipping routes lies in their low dependence on traditional shipping routes and minimal impact from channel congestion, as well as their high influence on international shipping strategies.".

The newly launched "New New Polar Bear" can accommodate 1600 standard containers, carrying paper, cardboard, chemicals, fertilizers, and other goods exported from Russia to China.

During the journey, Yuan Jing also stated that sea ice is the most uncertain factor in the northern waterway. According to First Financial News, the North Sea Route Administration, affiliated with the State Atomic Energy Corporation of Russia, provides regular information and navigation support for container transportation services passing through the newly opened northern waterway, as well as nuclear powered icebreakers.

In addition, to ensure smooth navigation, Xinxin Shipping Company has made full preparations for communication with the Russian side. In addition to being escorted by the Russian nuclear powered icebreaker, the liner can also receive relevant navigation notices in a timely manner, equipped with senior crew members with Arctic navigation experience, Russian pilots, and guidance from Arctic route experts.

Regarding the follow-up planning of the liner, Yuan Jing stated that "under the conditions of weather and other factors, the container liner operation on the Arctic route will continue from July to the end of October; it will be issued every 10-15 days to ensure regular shipments." Currently, the navigation period of the Arctic route, especially in the eastern region, is limited to summer, which is less than 5 months from mid June to November.

Yang Jie, Senior Coordinator of International Affairs at the International Train Consultation Service Center of the China Association of Transportation and Communications, told First Financial that according to his understanding, the Arctic shipping route mainly transports oil from outside the Kamchatka Peninsula, and there are "very few" commercial containers at sea. "From a technical perspective, the Arctic shipping route still has certain requirements, such as the opening of an icebreaker, and this technical condition is not currently possessed by container ships."

Arctic "Ice free Summer" May Advance to 2030

In fact, the transit transportation capacity of northern waterways has attracted great interest from many Asian and Middle Eastern enterprises in recent years. They all believe that container transit transportation through northern waters is another environmentally sustainable and stable route.

This is a view taken on July 25th from the bridge of the "Snow Dragon 2" polar research icebreaker. Xinhua News Agency

According to publicly available data from the Russian side, as of the end of 2020, approximately 1.3 million tons of goods were transported through the northern waterway, with a total of 61 ships passing through the northern waterway. In 2021, the total weight of freight passing through the northern waterway increased to 2 million tons. The number of ships passed in 2021 is 86, of which 75 are foreign ships.

COSCO Shipping Special Transportation Co., Ltd. is currently the only enterprise in China with experience in Arctic and Antarctic shipping routes. Last year, it conducted 14 voyages in the northern waterway. A relevant person from COSCO Shipping told First Financial that the navigation capacity of the Arctic Navigation Channel has indeed increased in recent years. He gave an example that since the summer of 2020, Russia has increased the sea ice forecast area of the Arctic Northeast Passage from 7 zones divided by geographical longitude to 28 zones that are more in line with ship navigation habits, providing more reasonable autonomous navigation and route selection for ships planning to navigate through the Arctic Northeast Passage.

According to Russian media reports, Vladimir Panov, the Special Representative for Arctic Development of the State Atomic Energy Corporation of Russia, stated at the launch ceremony of the "New Polar Bear": "The new route will operate during the summer and autumn shipping season, connecting northern Russian ports with Chinese ports. During the summer and autumn shipping season, ships on the northern route can navigate open and thin ice waters with little or no ice, but these voyages are crucial for opening up container cargo export routes. These voyages are innovative and experimental."

He stated that Russia's next task is to conduct regular year-round shipping in the eastern direction of the Arctic Passage. In fact, this ambition on the Russian side is not unfounded.

A study published in the journal Nature on June 6th suggests that the Arctic may experience an "ice free summer" by 2030, and it may be too late to save summer sea ice in the Arctic region. The Northern Hemisphere needs to prepare for more frequent extreme weather.

September is the month when the Atlantic Gulf Stream has the strongest impact on the Arctic Ocean, and the Gulf Stream promotes the melting of ice and snow in the Arctic Ocean. According to American media, the Arctic sea ice level will reach its lowest point in late summer in September. Data shows that since satellite records began in 1979, the Arctic summer ice layer has decreased by 13% every 10 years. In 2022, the Arctic sea ice area reached a record low of only 3.4 million square kilometers, and the sea ice area was also at a historical low in 2020 and 2019.

Research has shown that if greenhouse gas emissions slow down or continue to rise in the future, the Arctic may have no sea ice by 2030, which is at least about 10 years ahead of expectations. According to previous predictions from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States, "summer ice in the Arctic Ocean may completely disappear by September 2040." The study also suggests that even if greenhouse gas emissions significantly decrease in the future, the Arctic may experience "ice free summers" in the coming decades.

Not only in the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has also recorded its lowest level since satellite records began in 1979 for most of this year.

According to European satellite monitoring data, on June 28, the sea ice area in Antarctica was only 11.7 million square kilometers, which is about 2.6 million square kilometers less than the average from 1981 to 2010 and about 1.2 million square kilometers less than the record low set on June 27, 2022.

The sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that global warming has been occurring at an unprecedented rate in the past 50 years, with extreme weather such as heatwaves, high temperatures, droughts, and hurricanes expected to become more common in the future.

Looking ahead to the future, in Yang Jie's view, the commercialization prospects of the Arctic waterway not only depend on technological breakthroughs, but also on subsequent commercial operations and the required supporting infrastructure, such as supporting dock facilities, connecting docks and railways to the final destination.

Yuan Jing told First Financial that the company will develop the Arctic container liner route into a boutique route between China and Russia, contributing to the joint construction of the "Ice Silk Road" between the two countries and bringing new cooperation opportunities for enterprises in China and Russia, further enhancing the scale of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. He believes that the development prospects of the Arctic route will gradually improve in the coming years, which will to some extent change the original transportation pattern of the ocean and drive the economic development along the route, presenting a new pattern of global economic trade.