Changsha has the highest growth rate in 5 years, with 32 primary school students in 32 cities. Big data shows that Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu rank in the top three cities | City | Chengdu

In recent years, with the accelerated development of central cities and the concentration of population towards them, the number of primary school students in many central cities has shown a rapid growth trend.

The first financial reporter sorted out the changes in the number of primary school students in 32 key cities over the past five years and found that overall, strong provincial capital cities have experienced rapid growth; The growth rate of primary school students in Changsha, Xi'an, Wuhan, Nanjing, and Guiyang ranks among the top. The 32 key cities include municipalities directly under the central government, cities specifically designated in the national plan, provincial capitals with a population of over 30 million, and some major economic cities. However, some cities have not yet been included in the statistics due to the fact that data from compulsory education stage has not been released or published.

It should be noted that some cities have made adjustments to their administrative divisions since 2017, for example, in early 2019, the prefecture level city of Laiwu was merged into Jinan. Therefore, when calculating the changes in the number of primary school students, the comparison is made with the 2017 data under the current administrative division, and the caliber is kept consistent.

The first increase in the number of primary school students in Changsha over the past five years

In terms of total quantity, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu currently have the top three primary school students. Chongqing is the only city with over 2 million people, reaching 2031900; Guangzhou ranks second with 1.2044 million people; Chengdu ranks third with 1.181 million people.

Overall, the number of urban primary school students is related to multiple factors such as birth rate, population structure, and educational system. For example, cities with high birth rates and a high proportion of children tend to have relatively high birth rates. From the changes in the past five years, the number of primary school students in China has increased by 6.3%. In 2022, China's primary school enrollment reached 17.0139 million, with 107.32 million students enrolled; In 2017, the national enrollment of ordinary primary schools was 17.666 million, with 100.937 million students enrolled. Among the 32 cities counted by First Financial, 28 cities have seen a growth rate in the number of primary school students exceeding the national average in the past five years.

According to statistics from First Financial News, out of 32 cities, 18 have seen a growth rate of 20% or more in the number of primary school students. Among them, there are 6 cities with a growth rate of over 30%, namely Changsha, Xi'an, Wuhan, Nanjing, Guiyang, and Xiamen. Among the 32 cities, 9 out of the top 10 are provincial capitals.

Changsha, the capital of the central province, ranked first with 41.9%, which is 35.6 percentage points higher than the national growth rate during the same period. In 2017, there were 574200 students enrolled in ordinary primary schools in Changsha. In 2022, this number reached 815000, an increase of 240800. In recent years, the permanent population of Changsha has maintained a rapid growth trend. Changsha ranked first in the country with a population growth of 181300 in 2022. As the capital of Hunan, a populous province in central China, Changsha has a great attraction to cities throughout the province.

From an industrial perspective, Changsha's equipment manufacturing, culture, medicine, and other industries are very prominent. Taking the equipment manufacturing industry as an example, in recent years, Changsha has seen the emergence of star equipment manufacturing enterprises such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Shanhe Intelligence, and China Railway Construction Heavy Industry, known as the "Capital of Mechanical Engineering in the World". In terms of cultural industry, Changsha has emerged as a popular city on the internet, and the cultural and entertainment industry is very prosperous. Combining Changsha's own good educational, medical, and cultural resources, it has also attracted a large influx of population from surrounding areas.

Xi'an and Wuhan rank second and third in terms of growth rate. Wuhan and Xi'an have a large number of universities, research institutes, hospitals, and other institutions, which have accumulated abundant scientific and technological innovation resources. The urban scale is also relatively large, and the proportion of urban GDP in the province exceeds one-third, making it highly attractive to people in surrounding areas and cities.

Ding Changfa, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics at Xiamen University, analyzed that for most central and western provinces, provincial capital cities are often the unipolar core cities of their respective provinces, concentrating the best industries, funds, science, education, culture, and health resources in the province. In recent years, these cities have significantly narrowed the gap with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. In the process of urbanization development in the central and western regions, a large number of people from other cities, prefectures, and even surrounding provinces in the province have flowed into the provincial capital cities.

Professor Jiang Quanbao from the Population and Development Research Institute of Xi'an Jiaotong University analyzed that in recent years, cities such as Xi'an, Wuhan, and Changsha have introduced many policies in attracting talents, such as household registration thresholds and preferential measures. Among them, many people from surrounding areas took advantage of the relaxation of the household registration threshold and moved their household registration to the provincial capital, where their children went to study.

Among the 32 cities, Xiamen is the only non provincial capital city among the top ten cities in terms of growth. Ding Changfa said that Xiamen has good educational resources, is livable, and has a relatively good industrial chain. Its per capita income ranks first in Fujian, attracting a large number of young people from surrounding areas to flow in.

Among the 32 cities, 6 have seen a growth rate of less than 10% in the number of primary school students in the past five years, namely Harbin, Chongqing, Wenzhou, Nanchang, Shijiazhuang, and Dongguan.

Among them, the number of primary school students in Harbin has decreased by 12.2% in the past five years, which is related to factors such as low birth rates and continuous decline in permanent residents in the region. At the end of 2022, the total permanent population of Heilongjiang was 30.99 million, a decrease of 260000 from the previous year and a decrease of 7.32 million from the sixth national population census in 2010.

The number of primary school students in Chongqing has decreased by 3.2% in the past five years. However, in 2022, Chongqing, a municipality directly under the central government, had a permanent population of 32.1334 million and an area of 82400 square kilometers, equivalent to a medium-sized province. Among them, a large number of people are distributed in the subordinate districts and counties, especially in the southeast and northeast regions of Chongqing. Due to the underdeveloped economy in these areas, a large number of people are flowing out to the southeast coastal areas, and there is also a large flow of population to the main urban area of Chongqing. In recent years, the population in the main urban area of Chongqing has also shown a sustained growth trend.

Many regions are experiencing a peak in enrollment this year

The changes in population spatial distribution, combined with the comprehensive second child effect, have led to a peak in primary school enrollment in many parts of the country this year, with many regions experiencing degree warnings.

For example, 2023 will be the most challenging year for first-year elementary school students in Hangzhou in recent years, with an estimated enrollment of around 150000 people. According to a report by Hangzhou Daily on April 11th, the Education Bureau of Hangzhou City has issued a warning for the enrollment of compulsory education public schools throughout the city. Hangzhou has provided parents with access information queries for each school. "Red alert" will be given to students of school age with registered residence registration in the school district who reach or exceed 100% of the number of normal enrollment plans for primary schools in the school district. "Yellow alert" will be given to students of school age with registered residence registration in the school district who are between 90% and 100% of the number of normal enrollment plans for primary schools in the school district.

Qingdao media reported that the number of first grade primary school students in Qingdao has also reached its peak this year, with a total of 168000 children enrolled, an increase of 43000 from last year.

In addition, Beijing, Guangzhou, Jinan, Chengdu, Nanchang and other places have also issued degree warnings.

However, although many primary schools have issued degree warnings, kindergartens in many areas have encountered difficulties in enrollment this year, and many kindergartens are facing closure. From the changes in the birth population over the years, after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, the number of births exceeded 17 million in 2016 and 2017, especially reaching 18.83 million in 2016. But in 2018, the second child effect weakened, with a birth rate of 15.23 million people that year; In 2019, there were 14.65 million people; In 2020, there were 12 million people.

Therefore, in three years, many primary schools will also face difficulties in enrollment. In this situation, even in cities where the number of primary school students is growing rapidly, there is a possibility that the growth rate of primary school enrollment will slow down or even decline.

Meng Jiuer, Deputy Director and Associate Researcher of the Institute of Education Finance at the Chinese Academy of Educational Sciences, wrote an article analyzing that while actively responding to the current peak in enrollment, it is also necessary to fully consider the potential decline in enrollment in the coming years, and increase the supply of degrees through "tapping the potential" and "expanding capacity" to reduce the large-scale construction of new schools.