But China still has a huge population advantage. President of the Chinese Population Society: India's total population exceeds that of China

At the recent "the Belt and Road" Population and Development Seminar and New Book Press Conference held in Beijing, Zhai Zhenwu, President of the Chinese Population Society, made a speech on "India's population development and its comparison with China". He said that although India's total population exceeded China's, China's population is still significantly higher than India's in terms of labor participation level, population quality and labor productivity, which will enable China's economic development to have a huge demographic advantage in the long term. One major advantage of India's population compared to China is its English proficiency, which will contribute to the development of India's service industry and service trade.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in January this year, the total population of China at the end of 2022 was 1.412 billion, a decrease of 850000 compared to the previous year. This is the first time in 61 years that China's population has experienced negative growth. Meanwhile, according to United Nations estimates, India's population surpassed China in April this year, making it the world's most populous country.

Population is the most important variable and element in the development process, and changes in population will have a profound impact on economic and social development. Zhai Zhenwu stated that it is reasonable for India's population to exceed that of China to attract high attention. According to research, the birth rate of India's population will be higher than that of China for a long time, entering a negative growth stage about 40 years later than China's. At the three time points of 2035, 2050, and 2100, the population of China is expected to be less than that of India by 168 million, 358 million, and over 700 million, respectively.

"To observe the impact of India's population surpassing China on economic growth, we need to look at it from several other deeper perspectives. From the perspective of economic growth, capital, labor force, and technological level are the three basic elements." Zhai Zhenwu pointed out that the most core element of economic growth is labor force, not the working age population. The huge size of the working age population does not necessarily mean a huge labor force.

The working age population in China was 980 million in 2021, and 950 million in India, but the labor force was 748 million and 488 million respectively. The labor participation rate in China is 75%, while in India it is 51%, with a difference of 24 percentage points.

Why is India's labor participation rate low? Zhai Zhenwu pointed out that the labor participation rate of Indian men is 76%, equivalent to the average level of men and women in China, while the labor participation rate of Indian women is only 24%, which is the main reason for lowering the labor participation rate in India. China has over 700 million people involved in production, while India only has over 400 million people involved in production. Although India has a larger population than China, from the perspective of the impact of population on economic development, India has no advantage compared to China and the gap is significant.

Population includes two aspects: quantity and quality. Population quality, also known as population quality or human capital, is mainly composed of health and education level. Zhai Zhenwu pointed out that China's population quality is significantly higher than that of India, and its human capital is also larger than that of India. He listed that only 12% of the working age population in India have received higher education, while 27% have education below primary school. The proportion of China's population with higher education is 22%, nearly twice that of India, and the population with less than primary education is only 1.5%. The life expectancy of the Chinese population is also much higher than that of India.

Another advantage of China's population compared to India is labor productivity, which is the gross domestic product generated by each labor force. Calculated in 2015 constant US dollars, China's labor productivity in 1991 was $1746 and India's was $1680. But currently, China's labor productivity is $21000, India's is $6000, and China is more than three times that of India. The growth rate of China's labor force is slowing down and may decrease in the future, but due to the high level of labor productivity, the total value produced by China's labor force will be much higher than that of India.

"However, India also has a significant advantage over China in terms of population characteristics, which is its ability to speak English," said Zhai Zhenwu. English is one of India's official languages and also a national language. The international evaluation shows that Indian people have a moderate level of English proficiency, while Chinese people have a low level of proficiency. Zhai Zhenwu pointed out that language also has an impact on economic development and industrial structure. As English is the main lingua franca in the world today, English proficiency has become an important and significant advantage for the Indian population. India's service trade is relatively strong, with a surplus, while China has a deficit, which is influenced by its English proficiency.

Zhai Zhenwu summarized that compared to India, China has a higher level of labor participation and a larger labor force, and will continue to maintain its position as the "largest labor force" for a long time in the future. China's labor force has higher quality, higher labor productivity, and more abundant driving force for economic development. But in terms of universal language, China's population is at a disadvantage compared to India. Therefore, if India's total population exceeds that of China, it does not mean that its economic development potential exceeds that of China - for a long period of time in the future, China's economic development will still have a huge population advantage compared to India.