Bloomberg Survey: Most Investors Worried about US Economic Recession Survey Results | Investors | US
The latest survey results released by Bloomberg News on August 6th show that most investors expect the US economy to enter a recession by the end of 2024.
The survey conducted by Bloomberg's research agency "Market Dynamics Pulse" from July 31 to August 4 received responses from 410 investors. About two-thirds of investors expect the US economy to decline by the end of next year, and about 20% of investors even believe that the US economy will decline this year.
Despite current data showing that the US economy is resilient, these investors expect the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes over the past year to further cause destructive fallout.
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Bloomberg reported that the survey results are consistent with traders' expectations reflected in the pricing of federal fund futures, that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times next year, by more than one percentage point, to cope with the gradual economic weakness.
In anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, investors began to be bullish on long-term US treasury bond bonds. Nearly 60% of investors believe that this is a good time to start treasury bond for more than 7 years. However, most investors gave this feedback before the international rating agency Fitch downgraded the US credit rating on August 1st.
In the US stock market, 47% of investors believe that there is a foam in the current bull market. More than two-thirds of investors believe that the S&P 500 index is still mired in earnings recession, and this trend will continue for a longer time.
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In addition, nearly three-quarters of investors expect that as one of the indicators reflecting the level of inflation in the United States, the personal consumption expenditure index will remain above 3% for the next 12 months, or rebound to above 3% after a brief downturn. At present, the personal consumption expenditure index in the United States is 4.1%, the lowest since 2021.