Backfire! US executives are concerned about the "unintended consequences" of technology containment plans in China | US | Technology
Starting from August 1st, China officially implemented export controls on two strategic mineral resources. According to US media reports, due to the dual-use properties of these two metals, the US Department of Defense has had to take "unconventional measures" to respond.
China's export controls have been officially implemented
Response to "Rare Measures" in the United States
China officially implements export controls on two types of metal related items
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According to previous announcements issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs of China, China's export controls on gallium and germanium related items will be officially implemented from August 1st.
Host of Singapore Asia News Channel
Do you have a mobile phone? Your phone may contain gallium and germanium. From television to cars, from solar panels to night vision goggles, the applications of gallium and germanium are ubiquitous. On the periodic table, these two soft silver metals are located between zinc and arsenic.
Gallium and germanium have extensive military applications and dual-use properties
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Gallium and germanium have a wide range of applications in high-tech industries. Gallium has high conductivity, moderate thermal conductivity, and low liquid toxicity. Downstream products mainly include semiconductor materials, semiconductor light-emitting devices, and transistors; Gallium nitride is one of the most representative third-generation semiconductor materials.
Germanium also has important applications in fields such as semiconductors, aerospace, and solar cells. Experts say that from the downstream application fields of gallium and germanium, related items not only serve economic and social development, but also have a wide range of military uses and typical dual-use properties.
US media: The Pentagon will use the Defense Production Act to recycle gallium
According to Bloomberg, due to the lack of a strategic reserve system for gallium, the US Department of Defense plans to use the Defense Production Act to sign a contract with US or Canadian companies to recover gallium resources before the end of this year. The 1950 Defense Production Act can authorize the US administrative department to require private companies to prioritize the production of products related to national security.
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US Think Tank: Gallium Used for US Navy Shipborne Radar and Ground Air Defense Radar
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, pointed out in a report released in July that gallium is widely used in active radar systems of the US military, including the AN/SPY-6 radar produced by Raytheon. This type of radar is mainly carried by the Arleigh Burke class Aegis destroyer and can perform both air defense and anti missile missions, detecting incoming cruise missiles, aircraft, and ballistic missiles. In March 2022, the US Navy signed a $650 million contract with Raytheon Corporation to install this type of radar on all newly built surface vessels, including the Ford class aircraft carrier.
Gallium is also used in the AN/TPS-80 radar equipped by the US ground forces - a mobile multitasking radar with real-time, 360 ° situational awareness capabilities that can detect and track multiple targets including manned aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and shells. The new generation AN/TPS-80 radar uses gallium nitride antennas, which can enable the radar transmitter to achieve greater transmission power and reduce costs with less electricity usage.
US Department of Defense: Recycling is Faster than Mining and Processing
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US media emphasized that the US military has never previously allocated funds for metal recycling under the Defense Production Act.
According to reports, gallium can be obtained from waste generated during semiconductor wafer manufacturing and some second-hand products. A Pentagon spokesperson stated that recycling is a faster way to obtain gallium compared to mining and processing.
Australian resource analyst David Lennox
At present, there are no other alternative options outside of China. We have seen some plans to dismantle military vehicles and weapons, and recover metals from them, especially for the United States, which has a large number of military vehicles and electronic devices, and recycling may be their main source of acquisition.
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Chinese Ministry of Commerce: The purpose of implementing export controls is to maintain national security
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce previously stated that the Chinese government implements export controls on gallium and germanium related items in accordance with the law to ensure their lawful use, with the aim of maintaining national security and better fulfilling international obligations. Experts also point out that rare metals such as gallium and germanium are not only considered as strategic reserve minerals by China, but have also been listed in strategic or key mineral catalogs by developed economies such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan.
The restrictive measures against China are gradually escalating
US executives are concerned about "unintended consequences"
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US media: Biden plans to sign investment restrictions on China in mid August
According to US media reports, US President Biden plans to sign an investment restriction order against China in mid August. Sources have revealed that the restrictions will focus on the fields of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, and existing investment projects will not be affected. After the issuance of the restriction order, opinions from relevant parties will be solicited, and the official implementation will not take effect until 2024.
Barron Weekly pointed out that in the past, the United States provided technology and products to China through strict export controls, but there was almost no regulation on the flow of funds to China.
Bloomberg TV host
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If concerns about "national security" are really so important, why did the Biden administration take so long when Sullivan proposed to restrict investment in China two years ago?
US Treasury Secretary Yellen
We are indeed very cautious in considering setting restrictions on outward investment, which will complement existing export control policies. We hope to ensure that once this policy is introduced, it will be implemented in the right way, and we have been improving the relevant details.
US Secretary of Commerce: Attention Needed to China's Large Scale Investment in Mature Process Chips
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So far, the restrictions imposed by the United States on China's chip industry have mainly focused on advanced processes of 14 nanometers and below, which has forced Chinese companies to shift towards mature processes with fewer restrictions. US Commerce Secretary Raymond recently publicly stated that China's significant investment in mature process chips needs to be taken seriously by the US and its allies.
US Secretary of Commerce Raymond
This issue requires us to seriously consider and cooperate with allies and make advance arrangements.
Although mature process chips are not as fast and energy-efficient as advanced processes, they are widely used in automotive and electronic products, as well as weapons and equipment such as missiles and radars. The International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Organization predicts that from 2022 to 2026, the total number of new 8 inch and 12 inch wafer factories in Chinese Mainland will reach 26, far more than any other countries and regions; By 2026, the 12 inch wafer production capacity of Chinese Mainland will surpass that of South Korea, ranking first in the world.
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"De Sinicization" of strategic industrial supply chain? American media: Difficult!
US Treasury Secretary Visits Vietnamese Electric Vehicle Companies to Promote "Friendly Outsourcing"
In August 2022, the Chip and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act were successively passed in the US Congress and signed into effect by Biden. These two laws aimed at promoting the return of production capacity in strategic industries such as semiconductors and new energy constitute the core content of the so-called "Biden economics".
According to the website of The Politburo, several high-ranking officials from the Biden administration, including the President, Vice President, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Energy, and Secretary of Transportation, will travel to various parts of the United States in August to promote the role of these two laws in enhancing the country's economic and technological competitiveness.
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In conjunction with a series of policies to stimulate industrial backflow, the US government has also vigorously promoted the concept of "friendly outsourcing" since 2022, attempting to disperse production capacity to so-called "friendly countries". On July 20th, during his visit to Vietnam, US Treasury Secretary Yellen specifically visited a local electric vehicle startup.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen
We are actively working to make the supply chain more resilient, which does not mean that the United States is self-sufficient in all aspects, nor does it mean interrupting our trade with China. But we do cooperate with more countries, and the US sees Vietnam as a great partner.
Chinese battery material companies increasing investment in South Korea
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However, in the process of promoting the concept of "friendly outsourcing", there has also been a phenomenon that surprised the US government: Reuters reported on July 31 that South Korea is accepting more investment from Chinese battery material companies; Since entering 2023, Chinese companies have announced investments of over 4.4 billion US dollars in the field of battery materials in South Korea, and there are also battery companies under groups such as LG and SK that cooperate with China.
According to the Inflation Reduction Act, American consumers who purchase electric vehicles can enjoy a maximum tax subsidy of $7500, provided that the car assembly process is completed in North America. At the same time, a certain proportion of automotive battery components and raw materials must also be produced in the United States or countries with which the United States has signed free trade agreements.
Bloomberg reporter
The reason they do this is that South Korea is one of the few Asian countries to have signed a free trade agreement with the United States.
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US media: It's not easy to exclude China from the electric vehicle supply chain
American media believe that although the Biden administration is attempting to exclude China from the electric vehicle industry chain through "anti China clauses," the fact that Chinese companies can "bypass" South Korea highlights China's dominant position in this field. Data shows that, except for refined nickel sulfate, China's share in all other links of the electric vehicle supply chain exceeds 60%.
Bloomberg reporter
The key is that China currently occupies a dominant position in the supply chain of electric vehicles at all levels, not only in batteries, but also in mining, smelting, and the processing of chemicals required for batteries. Therefore, it is not easy to exclude China from the electric vehicle supply chain. If the United States really wants to do so, they may have to shrink their ambition for green transformation.
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