As a result, Jin Yinan became indecisive and complacent. Poland sought to deploy US nuclear weapons, but was ignored by nuclear weapons | Poland | United States

Polish Prime Minister Morawitzki recently expressed at a press conference after the EU summit that he hopes to deploy US nuclear weapons in Poland, and he also called on the entire NATO to participate in the nuclear weapon sharing program. In response, Kirby, the Strategic Communications Coordinator of the US National Security Council, stated that the United States is temporarily not discussing the deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland. So, what is Poland's intention to insist on joining NATO's "nuclear sharing" program? Will the current US attitude towards nuclear weapons change with the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Stay tuned for the Southern Military Forum on National Defense Time and Space.

Image: Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky

Li Yue:

Poland's public statement at this time that it hopes to join NATO's "nuclear sharing" program is a direct response to Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. But in fact, this idea from Poland is not the first time it has been proposed, as there have been similar statements before. Last September, Polish President Duda revealed in an interview that Poland had already held talks with the United States regarding the possibility of joining the "nuclear sharing" program. Last October, the Polish military also participated in NATO's "firm noon" nuclear deterrence exercise as an auxiliary role. Therefore, some media comments suggest that Poland's pursuit of joining the "nuclear sharing" program is not directly related to Russia's decision to deploy nuclear weapons, and this is just an excuse for Poland. Professor Yinan, why do you think Poland should actively seek to deploy nuclear weapons in its own country?

Jin Yinan: Firstly, countries like Poland that require other countries to deploy nuclear weapons on their own territory are very rare in the world. I think such demands are not only a shame for a sovereign country, but also pose great challenges to its national security.

Secondly, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Poland has been actively and continuously providing weapons to Ukraine, playing the role of "anti Russian vanguard". Poland and Russia have centuries of historical enmity. Now Poland wants to use the Russia-Ukraine conflict to destroy Russia, but this is unrealistic.

Third, after the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and NATO have set up important bases for assistance to Ukraine in Poland, used Polish territory to provide assistance to Ukraine with weapons, and set up a quasi war center in Poland, which makes Poland feel that its status has been improved unprecedentedly and a little complacent. A while ago, Poland even offered Germany a high price, demanding that Germany compensate for the losses caused to Poland during World War II, which angered Germany and Russia again. It can be said that Poland's various words and actions have led to the current dilemma.

Fourthly, Poland is now calling on all NATO member states to participate in the "nuclear sharing" program, hoping that the United States will deploy nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe, mainly for member states that joined NATO after 1997 or 1999. In Poland's view, the old European countries, such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Türkiye, have joined the "nuclear sharing" program, while the new European countries have not, and those in Eastern Europe have not yet joined the "nuclear sharing" program. Poland is willing to take the lead.

Li Yue:

"Nuclear sharing" is a concept in NATO's nuclear deterrence policy. Once joined, it allows NATO member states that do not have nuclear weapons and are not prepared to develop them to use nuclear weapons. However, the United States ultimately determines whether these non nuclear member states can use nuclear weapons. Therefore, while actively inviting the United States to deploy nuclear weapons within its borders, Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky also publicly stated that the final decision on this issue lies with the United States. In response, the White House spokesperson did not comment at the press conference, while the National Security Council's strategic communication coordinator, Kirby, told the media that "there is nothing to say" and that the United States "does not discuss the deployment of nuclear weapons in principle.". Professor Yinan, why does the United States take such a low-key stance on this issue, even feeling like it's deliberately avoiding it?

Jin Yinan: Because this is not the first time Poland has made this request, it was proposed last year to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland. At that time, the US spokesperson made it very clear that the US would not deploy nuclear weapons on the territories of member countries that joined NATO after 1997. That is to say, the United States will not deploy nuclear weapons on the land of "New Europe," which is Eastern Europe. This year, Poland once again made this request, and the United States quickly responded by not commenting on it and avoiding the deployment of nuclear weapons. Why is this happening? Because for the United States, the tactical nuclear weapons currently deployed in Europe are completely sufficient, and there is no need to increase deployment. Especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, considering the sensitivity of the big power game, after Russia deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus, if the United States deployed them in the front, it would certainly lead to warming up the situation. So the United States is unwilling to overly stimulate Russia and is unwilling to let the situation develop towards a nuclear war. The United States is well aware that the nuclear weapons deployment agreement reached between Russia and Belarus is entirely due to the continuous Western aid of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. Therefore, Russia's move has a strong defensive and deterrent nature. So, I believe that Poland's desire to join the "nuclear sharing" program is destined to fall through.

Data chart: US B61 nuclear bomb

Li Yue:

According to US media reports, as of October last year, the United States had deployed approximately 100 B61 nuclear bombs at six bases in five European countries. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to evolve, it is reported that the US military is seeking to speed up the deployment of the latest B61-12 nuclear bomb of the B61 series in Europe. According to NATO's nuclear weapons sharing program, once a crisis erupts and is approved by the United States, these nuclear bombs will be loaded onto fighter jets of participating countries in the "nuclear sharing" program to carry out strike missions. And just last month, Russian President Putin announced that the first batch of Russian tactical nuclear warheads had arrived in Belarus. Professor Yinan, based on the current security situation, do you think the nuclear safety risks in Europe are intensifying?

Jin Yinan: In fact, this risk has been clearly presented to all humanity. In the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO is taking out its guard weapons to confront Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine, trying to drag Russia down through Ukraine. From providing tanks to fighter jets, the posture of the United States and Western countries escalating conflicts is obvious, but what is the end of this upgrade? The Vice Chairman of the Russian National Security Council, Medvedev, has already said that if the Third World War breaks out, it will never start with tanks and fighter jets. His intention is very clear that if the Third World War breaks out, nuclear war is inevitable. I think in such a situation, all parties must calm down and not unnecessarily escalate the war.

We see that NATO is still constantly provoking and provoking, and has established a coalition of fighter jets to aid Ukraine. What will happen in the future? Will there be a ballistic missile alliance? Currently, Ukraine has requested assistance from the United States for ballistic missiles, and this phenomenon is very dangerous! If we don't establish a nuclear barrier, don't stop at the cliff, and let one side gradually escalate the situation, will it create an irreversible situation? From the current perspective, there is such a trend. So we believe that it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of such a situation. We must be highly vigilant now, stirring up fire on the Russia Ukraine issue and provoking those forces to duel with Russia. Because a huge danger is emerging, if not handled properly, it is very likely to come in the future.