Another war is about to break out, and I have a very ominous premonition about the Western Community | France | premonition

I have a very ominous premonition that another war is about to break out.

In distant Africa, in troubled Africa, in turbulent Africa. It's really a case of a leaking house encountering continuous rain at night, a broken ship encountering headwinds.

After the coup in Niger, the Economic Community of West African States issued an ultimatum to restore the position of Niger's President Bazum within 7 days, or armed intervention.

Now, 7 days have passed and the conflict is on the verge of breaking out.

It is necessary to introduce the Western Community here.

This is the largest regional economic cooperation organization in Africa, founded in 1975, with a total of 15 member countries and a population of 385 million, accounting for nearly one-third of the total population of Africa.

The degree of integration of the Western Community is relatively high.

The two most memorable points are, firstly, the 15 member states of the Western European Community unanimously agreed to issue a unified currency in 2027. This is learning from the EU, but a unified currency is really not fun.

Secondly, there is a high level of military intervention in member countries. In the past few decades, the Western Community has dispatched troops to intervene in internal conflicts or coups in West African countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, C ô te d'Ivoire, Mali, and the Gambia.

Among these 15 countries, Nigeria has a population of 220 million, making it a leading country and also a leader of the Western Community. In fact, the headquarters of the Western European Community is located in the capital of Nigeria, Abuja.

There is a lot of military intervention, and behind it lies the biggest problem of the Western Community, which is the excessive number of coups. Among the 15 countries, there have been coups in three countries: Mali in 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in 2023.

But for the West, the Niger coup is almost fatal.

Simply put, politically speaking, the Bazum government in Niger is the only remaining ally of the West in the Sahel region of Africa; Militarily speaking, both France and the United States are stationed in Niger, with a military base of 1400 French soldiers; Economically speaking, Niger is rich in uranium ore, which is the lifeline of France, a nuclear power powerhouse.

So, regarding the decision of the Western Community, France supported it with both hands, claiming that France "strongly supports" the efforts made by the Western Community to "thwart the Niger coup.".

Will the coup be quelled if the Western Community sends troops and the French and American armies support it?

It definitely won't be that simple, because the situation is very complex.

Firstly, public opinion is very hostile towards France.

Niger was once a French colony, and France also worked hard to manage it. But an undeniable fact is that many people strongly dislike Western colonizers. After the coup, many people even stormed the French embassy, shouting "France get out". For the ultimatum issued by the Western Community, Niger accuses it of being instigated by the West.

Secondly, there are also sympathizers for the coup.

Niger's neighboring countries Mali and Burkina Faso have both warned that any military intervention in Niger is equivalent to declaring war on Mali and Burkina Faso. These three countries are all councilors who come to power and dislike the intervention of the Western Community. Once the war breaks out, it is likely to get out of control.

Thirdly, the influence of Russia cannot be ignored.

Interestingly, after the coup in Niger, many people opposed France while shouting slogans in support of Russia. This is not to say that Russia planned a coup, but it is the public opinion in West Africa. Subsequently, the Niger coup leaders also made contact with Wagner to seek military support from him.

Fourthly, the coup plotters still have chips in their hands.

Firstly, they have the urgently needed uranium ore from the West, and secondly, they have public opinion and sympathy from neighboring countries. President Bazum, who has been overthrown again, is also in control. The Niger military publicly declared that if the armed forces of the Western Community intervened, Bazum would be executed.

With the tense situation, countries such as France, Italy, and Spain have been urgently evacuating overseas Chinese recently, while Nigerians are demonstrating. According to foreign reports, many Nigerians, many of whom are still children, waving the Russian flag and shouting the slogan "Down with France", are marching towards French military bases

That's the way things are. The situation is still rapidly changing, but overall it is very pessimistic.

Finally, let me express my personal feelings.

1. If you come out to mess around, you always have to pay it back.

Africa is in turmoil and has its own deep-rooted problems. But it cannot be denied that without the barbarism and plunder of Western colonizers back then, would Africa have such a pattern? Will Africans be so poor and turbulent? Will Niger people be so averse to the West?

Don't forget, Niger is an important friend of the United States and France, and the two countries provide huge aid to the Nigerian military, but what about the results? The military has staged a coup!

Also, if it weren't for Niger having mines and uranium mines, would the West be so concerned? In this world, a person is innocent and harbors a deep sense of guilt.

2. Send chips to Putin's doorstep.

The West is very afraid that Russia may take advantage of public opinion to expand its influence in Africa; If Wagner intervenes directly, it would pose a greater threat to the French and American military.

There is still a problem of public opinion shift here. Despite being a colony of the West and France, they have an inexplicable fondness for Russia, even holding the Russian flag and shouting slogans such as "Down with France" and calling for Wagner's intervention.

This is a big game of chess. But shouldn't the West reflect on this change in public opinion?

3. The importance of a peaceful and stable environment.

The final outcome of Niger cannot be ruled out as a melee, with countless people lying in a pool of blood. From this perspective, what we are accustomed to is what many countries envy the most.

Africa is very poor, development is the absolute principle; But Africa is very chaotic, and development is always full of difficulties.

Poor Africa, poor Niger.

Moreover, in recent years, the Chinese People's Congress has stepped out of the country and in many African countries, including Niger, there are many of our compatriots who work hard and strive for their dreams. But the environment is dangerous, these fellow travelers must pay attention to safety.

After all, life only comes once, this terrible world!

Personal opinion does not represent any organization