American media asks, striving for "fourth place" in four years? Are South Korea Ready to Become a Key Weapon Exporter
On July 13th, the website of American diplomats published an article titled "Is South Korea Ready to Become a Global Key Arms Exporter?" by Chris H. Park, a master's student in international relations at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. The full text is excerpted as follows:
South Korea has established its position as a daunting participant in the international arms market. In 2022, the country's weapons sales exceeded $17 billion, more than twice the record breaking $7.25 billion from the previous year. The recent series of weapon sales has become the climax of the South Korean government's efforts over the past 20 years to build a defense industry with export competitiveness.
Under the leadership of the government of Yoon Seok yeol, South Korea has set a lofty goal of becoming the world's fourth largest exporter of weapons by 2027. Setting aside the export competitiveness and technological capabilities required to achieve this achievement, whether South Korea is ready to face the challenges that it will face as a global arms exporting power remains an unanswered question.
With weapons being transported to NATO countries and - albeit indirectly - Ukraine, the conflict in Ukraine has led South Korea to face geopolitical consequences that it has never encountered before. The Yin Xiyue government is increasingly using arms sales as a core tool in its value based foreign policy agenda. This will raise questions about the adaptability of exporting weapons, especially to countries with human rights and other governance issues, as well as South Korea's commitment to the values of freedom and democracy.
▲ Data image: K9 self-propelled howitzer
In order to achieve its goal of becoming a "global hub country" by meeting the global demand for its weapons, South Korea will need to establish a unique set of capabilities that are vastly different from the diplomatic and political capabilities carefully honed over the past 20 years, in order to boost its arms export business.
Due to extensive defense cooperation with the United States, particularly through licensed production, and conscious design, South Korea's weapons have high interoperability with American systems. For example, the K2 assault rifle can use standard M16 magazines and other NATO compliant bullets, while the K9 Thunderbolt self-propelled howitzer can load and fire American ammunition.
The prices of these interoperable weapons are competitive. The range and warhead power of the AT-1K Lebott missile are similar to those of the US light javelin, but the estimated price is only one-third of the latter. The progressiveness of K9 howitzer is comparable to that of German PzH 2000 howitzer, but the unit price is lower.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's 2022 global arms sales statistics show a significant increase in arms imports in countries facing increasingly strong geopolitical tensions. As expected, these countries have also entered the list of recent buyers of South Korean weapons.
Poland and Finland, both facing strong security threats after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, bought South Korean weapons in 2022. The Philippines, Vietnam, and other ASEAN countries have recently turned to South Korea to seek supplies of aircraft and warships. So, South Korean weapons are flowing towards NATO and the South China Sea front, towards more and more countries that are dealing with deteriorating security prospects. This situation will trigger strong reactions from its powerful neighboring countries, especially Russia and China.
South Korea will also face the thorny issue familiar to the United States: what to do when weapons are sold to partners with governance issues. Previously, when Türkiye may have used the Korean K9 howitzer in its offensive against the Syrian Kurdish controlled area in 2009, people raised similar questions.
So far, South Korean public opinion has firmly supported arms sales. However, some small civil society groups have previously protested against arms sales citing human rights concerns. Some members of the main opposition party have also proposed amending the Foreign Trade Law, which stipulates that foreign arms sales must be approved by Congress. Such measures will bring more complexity and limitations to the South Korean President's arms sales diplomacy and his ability to use arms sales as a foreign policy tool.
The report states that at a more macro level, South Korea will have to consider whether its model of seeking superpower status - the "global hub nation" vision outlined by the Yoon Seok yeol administration - is consistent with becoming a global arms sales powerhouse. As a relatively newcomer to the international arms market, these issues will pose daunting political challenges as South Korea strives to consolidate its success.
