7 big signals!, Central Important Deployment of Real Estate | Economy | Central

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 24th to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year.

The meeting made a scientific judgment on the current economic situation and put forward a series of new measures, releasing at least seven important signals.

How do you see the current economic situation?

-- Economic recovery is a process of wave-like development and tortuous progress.

The meeting pointed out that the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, operational difficulties for some enterprises, multiple risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and a complex and severe external environment. After a smooth transition in epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery is a wave like development and a tortuous progress. China's economy has enormous development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP grew by 5.5 in the first half of the year, 1.0 percentage points faster than in the first quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and 6.3 percent in the second quarter.

Zhao Xijun, co-dean of the China Capital Market Research Institute of Renmin University of China, told China-Singapore Finance that the central government's judgment on the current economic situation is in line with objective reality. China's economic recovery in the first quarter exceeded expectations, but the growth rate in the second quarter was slightly weaker than market expectations, and the degree of recovery in different areas was also somewhat uneven, reflecting the "wave-like development and tortuous progress".

Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, told China-Singapore Finance that this is also guiding expectations, reminding all parties to look at the current situation scientifically, and at the same time strengthening their confidence in development prospects.

What will the economy do in the second half of the year?

Regarding economic work in the second half of the year, the meeting emphasized that "we must adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "promote the economy to achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity", and proposed a series of new measures to release new signals.

-- To activate the capital market and boost investor confidence.

The meeting pointed out that the capital market should be active and investor confidence should be boosted.

Zhao Xijun believes that the stock market is a barometer of the economy. At present, many people in the capital market, especially the stock market, are waiting and waiting. This requires further activation of the capital market, enhancement of investor confidence, and stabilization of investor expectations. Especially in the stock market, which clearly reflects investor confidence, if investor confidence can be stimulated, it will play a guiding role in enhancing the confidence of the entire market.

Zhu Keli, founding dean of the National Research Institute of New Economy and chief researcher of the New Economy Think Tank, told the China-Singapore Finance reporter that this means introducing relevant measures to promote the innovative development of the capital market and improve the market environment.

-- Expanding consumption by increasing residents' income

The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand, give play to the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth, expand consumption by increasing residents' income, drive effective supply through terminal demand, and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reforms.

Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, pointed out at a press conference recently that economic growth has shifted from investment and export-driven last year to consumption and investment-driven this year. In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth exceeded 70%.

Expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year is still the highlight. Xu Hongcai believes that the expansion of consumption to find some specific scenarios and breakthroughs.

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to boost bulk consumption such as automobiles, electronic products, and home furnishings, and promote consumption of sports, leisure, cultural tourism and other services.

China-Singapore Finance noted that recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments issued "Measures on Promoting Automobile Consumption" and "Measures on Promoting Electronic Product Consumption."

-- Encourage enterprises to venture, invest and take risks

The meeting stressed that it is necessary to resolutely crack down on arbitrary charges, fines and apportionments, and solve the problem of government arrears of enterprise accounts. It is necessary to establish and improve a normalized communication mechanism with enterprises, encourage enterprises to dare to venture, dare to invest, dare to take risks, and actively create markets.

Zhao Xijun said that the central government's proposal to encourage enterprises to "three dares" is to embolden private entrepreneurs and play an important role in dispelling doubts and stabilizing confidence.

On July 19, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the Development and Growth of the Private Economy" was announced and put forward a series of major measures.

Zhu Keli pointed out that this will further stimulate the initiative of enterprises as the main body of market operation, further carry forward and give full play to the entrepreneurial spirit, encourage them to actively open up market space, dare to innovate and invest, and fight against the wind and waves without fear of risks, so as to continuously inject new impetus into economic growth.

-- Timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policy

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of my country's real estate market, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox according to urban policies to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. Promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, told China Singapore financial reporters that this means that the real estate policy is expected to be relaxed and upgraded again. The draft of the meeting did not mention "housing does not speculate", but does not mean that the policy of the overall shift, "housing does not speculate" is still the bottom line of the local city policy.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, believes that in the new stage of development, this meeting emphasizes "timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies, and use the policy toolbox according to the city". The optimization of real estate policies will still be promoted in the way of city-specific policies., The overall intensity is expected to increase. In the past year or so, the restrictive policies of real estate in ordinary second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities have been basically liberalized. At present, the policy space of core first-and second-tier cities is still large. In the short term, the real estate policies of these cities are expected to be further optimized. Optimizing housing credit policies, relaxing suburban purchase restrictions, and reducing transaction taxes and fees are still policy directions.

-- Develop and implement a debt package.

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks and formulate and implement a debt package.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Guangdong Development Securities and director of the Research Institute, told China New Finance that the meeting attached great importance to local debt risks, not only from the perspective of increment and stock, but also put more emphasis on a package of debt solutions. this is a systematic and comprehensive solution based on the complexity of the problem and the intertwined characteristics of debt and financial risks.

Luo Zhiheng believes that the reasons for the formation of local debt are complex, and the solution can not be completed overnight, especially the current local debt risk, financial risk and social risk intertwined, need to pay attention to the intensity and pace of disposal. Effective control of debt ratios requires dealing with several pairs of relationships: stock and incremental, explicit and implicit debt, and so on.

-- Raise stable employment to a strategic height for overall consideration.

The meeting stressed that it is necessary to strengthen the protection of people's livelihood, raise the stability of employment to a strategic height, and make sure the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grass-roots level, and expand the middle-income group.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the average unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 5.3, down 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter.

According to data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, from January to June, my country achieved 6.78 million new urban jobs, completing 57% of the annual target.

Zhu Keli believes that the overall consideration of stable employment should be raised to a strategic height, highlighting the strategic height of stable employment in people's livelihood security and economic development, and emphasizing the importance of employment to economic development and social stability. This means taking more active measures to further strengthen the priority of employment policies, such as increasing support for the platform economy and the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and strengthening vocational training and employment services, stabilize the economy and promote employment.