What signal does the UK Foreign Secretary's visit to China convey?, Depth | Visiting China after 5 Years | UK | Diplomacy

As Beijing receives visiting US Secretary of Commerce Raymond, high-level contacts between China and another Western country, the UK, are also taking place simultaneously. On the 30th, British Foreign Secretary Cleverley made an official visit to China, marking the first time in five years that the British Foreign Secretary has set foot on Chinese soil. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and member of the Political Bureau and Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China, Wang Yi, met with him.

Analysis suggests that since Prime Minister Sunak took office, there has been significant wavering in his policy towards China, and it is necessary to send a unified signal on his policy towards China through high-level visits. The outside world expects this visit to be the beginning of the resumption of dialogue at all levels between China and the UK. However, given the continued pressure from both domestic and international sources on the Sunak government, China UK relations still face a complex situation.

Restart contact with China

Cleverley was originally scheduled to visit China at the end of July, but was unable to make the trip due to a change in the position of Chinese Foreign Minister. Now, the delayed visit to China has finally begun.

The UK Foreign Office stated that Cleverley's trip to Beijing aims to strengthen communication channels, further focus on the UK's national interests, and collaborate on global issues such as climate change.

Although the visit was only for one day, it is widely regarded by the outside world as a test of the Sunak government's efforts to balance China UK relations, and the significance of this visit in restoring high-level contacts between the two countries is highly valued.

A major background is that the relationship between China and the UK has been deteriorating in recent years due to various issues, including the UK interfering in China's internal affairs with so-called "human rights issues" and announcing the ban on Huawei products. On the other hand, the United States is also wooing Britain, which has a "special relationship", to cooperate with the "Indo Pacific strategy" to engage in great power competition, squeezing the diplomatic space of Britain.

Under such circumstances, China UK relations have slipped from the previous "golden age" to the low point. In addition to the COVID-19, high-level exchanges between China and the UK have been blocked.

Now, with Sunak taking office, the new British government seems to have shown a willingness to restart Sino British contacts.

The outside world has noticed that the Sunak government's policy towards China has softened compared with that of the former Prime Minister Truss, which shows not only that it follows the values of the United States and the West in diplomacy, but also that it is relatively pragmatic and emphasizes communication with China.

For example, compared with Truss' desire to define China as a "threat", the updated Comprehensive Assessment Report on Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy released by the UK in March this year defined China as a "epoch-making challenge".

In April, Cleverley delivered a foreign policy speech, expressing his views on "prudent and constructive" contact with China and opposing the isolation of Beijing in the "New Cold War". He also continued to write articles on issues such as China's "military expansion" and domestic affairs.

In May, Sunak claimed after the G7 Hiroshima Summit that "China is the biggest challenge to global security and prosperity today.". But he also said that the Western response to Beijing must not be protectionism, and it is necessary to engage with Beijing on a series of issues

Some analysts believe that the Sunak government has adopted a more "subtle" strategy than the previous two prime ministers, advocating for "improvement" of Britain's foreign policy, which is also reflected in its stance on China policy.

Active release signal

When it comes to Cleverley's trip to China, Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Academy of International Studies, believes that it can be viewed from two perspectives.

First, China has gradually stepped out of the haze of the COVID-19, and its high-level contacts with other Western countries have increased. In particular, in the second half of last year and the first half of this year, China has achieved high-level dialogues with major European and American countries. In contrast, high-level contacts between China and the UK are relatively lagging behind.

Therefore, Cleverley's visit to China first hopes that it will serve as the beginning of the resumption of dialogue between China and the UK, keeping pace with the development of relations with other European and American countries, so that after experiencing the impact of the epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis, bilateral high-level dialogue and exchanges can be achieved again.

Secondly, since Sunak took office, there has been a significant fluctuation in Britain's policy towards China, releasing conflicting signals of policy towards China. "Therefore, it is necessary to further overcome internal contradictions in China policy and send a unified signal to the outside world through this visit... Of course, we hope this signal is positive," said Cui Hongjian.

Tian Dewen, deputy director and researcher of the Russian Eurasian Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that there have been many problems in China UK political relations in recent years, and former British Prime Minister Thomas Truss showed strong hostility to China. This visit by Cleverley reflects the positive and pragmatic aspect of the Sunak government's policy towards China. Moreover, it was the British side who took the initiative to release a signal, indicating their attitude, that they hoped that China UK relations would be in a rational and pragmatic atmosphere.

"Moreover, compared to other Western countries' engagement with China, the UK finds itself lagging behind." Tian Dewen said that the Sunak government is either catching up with the gap, or taking action after the Biden administration made a "four no one no one no intention" commitment to China and launched engagement with China.

Both analysts mentioned that this visit may bring some positive factors to the low performing China UK relationship.

Firstly, if this visit can serve as the beginning of the resumption of dialogue at all levels between China and the UK, it will be beneficial for the stability of the bilateral relationship. Cui Hongjian said that regardless of any differences between China and the UK, at least from the current policy announcements of the UK, they still value China's role and focus on communication and cooperation with China. This needs to be implemented by the British side through specific actions.

Secondly, restarting face-to-face contact between high-level officials from China and the UK can help avoid misunderstandings caused by a lack of physical communication for a long time, and effectively exchange ideas on common interests and challenges between China and the UK. This is undoubtedly quite important.

Reconfirm the relationship

During Cleverley's visit to China, a series of issues were on the table of both China and the UK. What topics are the most concerning?

Cui Hongjian believes that the most pressing issue is that both sides need to confirm the relationship between China and the UK.

In Cui Hongjian's view, the Sunak government is facing a balance issue in its policy towards China. On the one hand, it is under pressure from conservative politicians who are hawkish towards China. On the other hand, the British government, driven by national interests, needs to prioritize addressing domestic economic issues and expanding cooperation with countries including China.

Therefore, China and the UK exchange ideas on how to promote stable development of bilateral relations. "If progress is made, it will help establish the tone for the future development of China UK relations," said Cui Hongjian.

The second issue is how to carry out practical cooperation.

Cui Hongjian said that since Brexit, the UK has faced domestic economic challenges such as economic, trade, and investment restructuring. The existing economic and trade cooperation framework between China and the UK can play a significant role. In addition, the communication between the two countries on cooperation in global governance areas such as addressing climate change has also become a highlight.

Tian Dewen believes that although there are many political disputes between China and the UK, the overall situation of economic and trade cooperation is stable. Since Brexit, the UK has experienced economic difficulties. International rating agency Moody's recently pointed out that sustained high inflation and high borrowing costs will lead to a mild recession in the UK economy. Therefore, the UK has a willingness to engage in economic cooperation with China.

The third issue is regional security - whether it is the Ukraine crisis or recent UK cooperation with the US Indo Pacific strategy, there is a need for in-depth exchange of views between China and the UK.

"Especially, the UK should clarify some statements and positions with China, which involve China's peripheral security," Cui Hongjian said. "If both sides can exchange in-depth and candid views on these aspects, it can be considered a major achievement, which means that China and the UK have a certain foundation of political mutual trust and can discuss and handle these issues in a healthy way."

Another analysis suggests that this visit may also involve areas where there are "strong differences", and both sides will explore how to manage these differences.

Under double compression

Two analysts pointed out that although the outside world hopes that this visit can open up a new chapter in diplomatic contacts between the two countries, expectations cannot be too high. Because the situation of China UK relations remains complex.

Ruby Osman, the head of China at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change Studies, said that it is more difficult than bridging differences with other parties to appease both tough backbenchers and pro business lawmakers in the Conservative Party - the Sunak government - to form a coherent strategy towards China.

Osman also added that the UK will enter the election season next year, and even if Sunak has a willingness to visit China, it may not be possible due to political pressure.

"The pressure from conservative forces is on one hand, and the strategic pressure from the United States is on the other. In the context of dual pressure, the space for the Sunak government to balance its policy towards China is shrinking." Cui Hongjian said, "Moreover, this is after all, the visit of the British Foreign Secretary to China after five years, which is more of a 'exploration' and 'warming up' nature, and may not have much substantive results."

Tian Dewen believes that the UK's engagement with China is still based on the changes in US and Western policies towards China as a premise and reference.

Tian Dewen said that China has always maintained an open attitude towards contact. But if the negative factors in the UK's policy towards China still have a significant impact, the main tone of its relationship with China has not fundamentally changed, and its engagement with China does not focus on improving bilateral relations, then it will be difficult for China UK relations to break through in adversity.

Looking back 10 years ago, there was a "golden age" in China UK relations. Why has the UK's policy towards China changed so much over the past 10 years? Where is the relationship between China and Britain heading?

Cui Hongjian believes that the ups and downs of China UK relations are due to significant changes in international and regional order, especially in China US relations. As a country with special relations with the United States and a former Western hegemon, the UK has always had its own experience in judging changes in the international order and will also make policy adjustments. But sometimes this kind of judgment and adjustment can lead to directional errors.

"Another point is that since Brexit, the UK has been busy with domestic and economic issues, and its foreign policy lacks long-term planning. It has even made its policy towards China a sacrifice for domestic political changes and policy goal adjustments, making a simple judgment of 'being more with the United States'." Cui Hongjian said, "Therefore, the space for it to find balance between China and the United States has decreased, and policy volatility has increased."

Cui Hongjian said that the most pragmatic expectation for China UK relations now is to stabilize the relationship and avoid a "free fall" similar to that of China US relations, "so that this relationship will not be too affected by external factors in major changes."