What does criminal prosecution mean for the 2024 election?, Depth | Trump's Arrival in Florida Preparing for Court | Trump's Depth

Release time:Apr 13, 2024 21:38 PM

Former US President Trump arrived in Florida on the 12th local time and will appear in court at 3:00 pm on the 13th in Miami, Florida, to respond to the "classified matter controversy". According to the indictment released by the US Department of Justice last week, the prosecution has filed 37 charges against Trump and 7 separate charges. This also makes Trump the first former president in American history to be charged with federal criminal charges.

Analysis suggests that compared to the previous criminal charges against Trump in the "sealing fee" case, the new charges have greater "legal seriousness and political risk", as Trump has been "caught in action" on confidential matters, and the subsequent trial outcome depends on the recognition of the degree of harm. Currently, the incident has not had a significant impact on Trump's bid for the party's presidential nomination, as polls show he continues to lead his opponents.

The US public opinion points out that various power systems, including the judicial system, are increasingly becoming tools for political party struggles, and this lawsuit may become "another worrying national experience", further exacerbating and expanding the already serious political polarization and social division.

See you in court on the eve of your birthday

Trump will turn 77 on the 14th, but on the eve of his birthday, he was once again embroiled in litigation: the US Department of Justice released a 49 page indictment last Friday, containing 37 charges against Trump and 7 separate charges, as well as one charge against his personal assistant.

The New York Times stated that the indictment clearly presents how extensive the sensitive materials taken by Trump from the White House are, and how absurd and hasty he and his staff handled the documents. Shocking details include:

After leaving the White House in January 2021, Trump was suspected of intentionally retaining hundreds of confidential documents and bringing them to his residence - the Florida Sealake Estate.

According to the indictment, the materials stored by Trump in the bathroom, ballroom, bedroom, and shower involve the nuclear programs, defense forces, and weapon capabilities of the United States and foreign governments, as well as the military plans of the Pentagon. "The stacked boxes almost touched the small chandelier next to the toilet in the bathroom."

More seriously, Trump is suspected of obstructing the government in recovering these confidential documents. The prosecution believes that the former president instructed his personal assistant, Norta, to move the box to hide documents and advised lawyers to destroy or hide the documents required by the Department of Justice's subpoena.

The investigators also discovered a key audio evidence showing that Trump was interviewed by two people in July 2021, during which he hinted that a document he held should have been declassified during his tenure. This recording is expected to overturn Trump's claim that all documents he still holds after stepping down have been declassified.

The Associated Press reported that Trump's appearance in court will be his second time facing a judge on criminal charges after appearing in Manhattan, New York in April for the "sealing fee" case. However, unlike the "sealing fee" case, which has been mocked by some legal analysts as "irrelevant," the Ministry of Justice's accusations against the former president include collusion, false statements, obstruction of justice, violation of the Anti Espionage Act, and other acts related to national security. The maximum sentence for the last two charges is 10 to 20 years imprisonment. The related charges are stacked, and it is said that the maximum sentence can reach 100 years.

"Trump appeared in court again within two months, dropping another bomb for the 2024 election." The New York Times wrote, "The new indictment carries greater legal seriousness and political risk. However, Trump referred to the allegations on social media as' the highest level of election intervention 'and insisted on claiming his innocence."

Not only that, Trump also encouraged supporters to participate in the protest held at the Miami court on Tuesday. "We need domestic strength now... they must go out and protest peacefully. We have a lot to protest, we have lost everything," Trump said in a radio interview last Sunday.

US media reported that supporters of Trump appeared in places such as Dola on the 12th to hold small-scale protests. The special fans also plan to travel to Miami, causing concerns among law enforcement officials. The local police chief said that sufficient police force has been equipped to deal with crowds ranging from 5000 to 50000.

What will happen next?

It is reported that Trump plans to fly back to New Jersey on the evening after his court appearance, and then hold a private fundraising event.

The former president is currently embroiled in lawsuits. In addition to the "sealing fee" case, which will be heard in March next year, Georgia prosecutors are expected to announce in August whether to file criminal charges against him for allegedly interfering in the 2020 election vote counting. On the other hand, the investigation into the Capitol Hill riots is still ongoing.

Yuan Zheng, Deputy Director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the new charges against Trump, like his previous two impeachments and many investigations, are still a continuation of political party struggles in the United States. But the difference in the "confidential matter controversy" is that Trump has been "caught in action" - in August last year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided the Sea Lake Manor and obtained a large number of confidential documents, indicating that Trump did indeed have loopholes and violations in properly storing confidential materials. If more details are disclosed, it may cause some trouble for Trump.

Yahoo and opinion polls show that two-thirds of American respondents believe that removing confidential documents and obstructing investigations are serious criminal charges. An equal proportion of respondents believe that people with such charges are not suitable to serve as presidents.

Former US Attorney General Barr recently conducted a severe assessment of Trump's predicament, stating that "the indictment is very detailed and conclusive. Even if half of the content is true, Trump will be ruined."

Yuan Zheng believes that the outcome of the next trial depends on the determination of the degree of harm caused by Trump's series of actions. "But there should be room for maneuver in between."

US media reports that after Trump appears in court, prosecutors will begin transferring evidence to Trump's lawyers, who are expected to file a motion to dismiss the case on various grounds and challenge the evidence. The game between the two sides around the details of the case may last for several months. The Trump team hopes to postpone the trial until after the election, while the prosecution tends to close the case as early as possible before the Republican nomination decision next summer.

Diao Daming, a researcher at the National Development and Strategic Research Institute of Renmin University of China and deputy director of the Center for American Studies, believes that fundamentally, this is only the beginning of judicial proceedings, and there is not much difference from previous cases. The difference may be that this criminal prosecution belongs to the federal level and is a serious crime charge, and Trump faces greater political risks. Compared to the "sealing fee" case, the judicial process promoted at the federal level is often faster, and it is not ruled out that Trump may not be able to escape quickly after responding to the lawsuit, or be detained for a period of time, making the entire case more dramatic.

The Guardian quotes legal experts as saying that even if Trump is convicted or imprisoned, it will not hinder his campaign or even his election as president, despite the unusual logistical and security issues it will bring. According to the US Constitution, there are only three requirements for running for president: being at least 35 years old, born in the United States or its territories, and residing in the United States for at least 14 years.

But Diao Daming believes that if Trump is convicted, his personal freedom is restricted, and he affects the election campaign, and then the Republican Party happens to have strong enemies surrounded him, then his situation will be more delicate, and he cannot rule out the possibility of being replaced by other candidates.

The spiraling political struggle

The Associated Press stated that the related criminal charges against Trump have "significant political implications" and may overturn the current Republican primaries, "once again testing the willingness of Republican voters and leadership to continue supporting Trump.".

However, from the current perspective, Trump remains the most popular candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. According to the latest poll results released by Reuters and Ipsos on the 12th, 81% of respondents who identify themselves as Republicans believe that the "confidential scandal" case has political motives, and 43% support Trump as the Republican presidential candidate. The above proportion is higher than the estimated "Tingte" core fundamentals within the party.

According to a comprehensive poll, Trump continued to "crush" his opponent in the competition for the party's presidential nomination, beating Florida Governor and Republican presidential candidate De Santis by about 30 percentage points. And other Republican candidates, including former Vice President Pence, who announced his candidacy last week, have less than 10% of the vote.

In the view of the Associated Press, criminal charges have not weakened Trump's leading position, but may actually benefit his fundraising activities. After filing charges of falsifying business records in New York State, Trump raised over $4 million within 24 hours.

Diao Daming believes that after Trump's trial in New York in April, his approval rating did not decrease but instead increased. Next, there are several legal litigation points. Whether each time it will stimulate voters, causing Trump's approval rating to "steadily increase", or offset or even reverse, will be a window to observe the election situation.

The public opinion points out that the "investigation and investigation" and "retaliation and counter retaliation" between Trump and Biden, as well as between the Donkey and Elephant parties, have increasingly become the "new normal" in Washington politics. While the Democratic Party is trying to "tarnish" Trump and suppress the Republican campaign momentum, the Republican Party also seeks to settle accounts with Biden after the midterm elections, using the heavily controlled House of Representatives to launch an investigation into Biden. Various power systems, including the judicial system, are increasingly becoming tools for political party struggles, and the situation will worsen with the arrival of the election season.

In Yuan Zheng's view, the political polarization in the United States is prominent, and the struggle between the two parties on many issues is becoming increasingly fierce, lacking principles and bottom lines. This has led to low decision-making efficiency and frequent political chaos in the United States. Since the first half of the year alone, many farces have been staged, such as the prolonged debate in front of the House of Representatives, Biden being surrounded by the "Document Gate" incident, the "tug of war" over the debt ceiling issue, and difficulties in gun control. The spiraling political struggle has emerged and will dominate the domestic political agenda in the United States for a long time to come.

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