Turning to the "Global South"?, Depth | Japanese Foreign Minister Visits the Global South in Asia and Africa | Visits to Asia and Africa | Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng
Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng set off on July 27th to visit six Asian and African countries, including India and South Africa. Analysis suggests that, with the basic settlement of relations with major countries such as the United States and Europe, the Japanese government is seeking to strengthen relations with emerging market countries and developing countries in order to win their support on issues such as the Indian Ocean Pacific region and the Ukraine crisis, thereby expanding Japan's influence on the international stage. However, considering that these countries generally hold a neutral stance and look forward to international peace and stability, Japan may find it difficult to achieve its goal.
"Global South"
Lin Fangzheng set off on July 27th to visit six countries in Asia and Africa. During the nearly one week trip, he will visit India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, South Africa, Uganda, and Ethiopia.
According to Kyodo News, Lin Fang said before her visit that Japan will attach importance to strengthening relations with international partners, including the "Global South", to achieve a "free and open Indo Pacific".
Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Japan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Hu Lingyuan, director of the Japan Research Center at Fudan University, both stated that the choice of these destinations reflects Japan's diplomatic strategic considerations, with India and South Africa being key targets.
Hu Lingyuan pointed out that Japan's diplomacy has been relatively active for a period of time, but currently lacks other means of handling it. In the process of promoting Japan's Indo Pacific strategy, India is an important lever.
Lv Yaodong also pointed out the important position of India in Japan's diplomacy. As a member of the four country mechanism of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, India can be regarded as a core country and strategic pivot in the Indo Pacific region. But among these four countries, India is a relatively weak link.
Secondly, in recent years, India Japan relations have developed rapidly. In addition to political level leadership talks and visits, economic and trade level investment plans, and high-speed rail cooperation projects, the two countries have also carried out security cooperation through mechanisms such as the "Malabar" military exercise and the "2+2" talks with the participation of foreign and defense ministers.
Thirdly, India is regarded as a representative of the "global southern" countries. "The Japanese side hopes to leverage India's prominent influence in the 'Global South' to win political support from the 'Global South' towards Japan," said Lv Yaodong.
Japanese media also noted India's position on the international stage - not only as a member of the BRICS countries, but also hosting the G20 summit in September.
South Africa is also considered an important member of the "global South" and has significant influence in Africa. South Africa is also a member of the BRICS countries and will host the BRICS Summit as the rotating presidency next month.
Both scholars have stated that the other countries are not first-line countries on hot topics and have not received much attention from the Japanese government before. However, the situation is changing.
Although geographically close to South Asia and Africa, these countries have some commonalities. Hu Lingyuan said that in the Indo Pacific region, the United States, Japan, India, and Australia are seen as first tier countries, followed by Southeast Asia, and then Sri Lanka and Maldives. However, India, Sri Lanka, and Maldives are all strategically located in the Indian Ocean.
On the African side, both scholars pointed out that Africa has always been an important link in the process of the Japanese government's implementation of the Indo Pacific strategy.
Lv Yaodong also stated that African countries are seen as important "ticket holders" in Japan's pursuit of "permanent membership" in the United Nations.
"For Japan's diplomacy, these countries still hold significant geopolitical importance," Hu Lingyuan said.
Overall, both scholars stated that Lin Fangzheng's trip took place against the backdrop of Japan's basic establishment of "frontline diplomacy", and then shifted his focus to the "global south" in order to win the support of these countries on issues such as the Indo Pacific situation and the Ukrainian crisis.
Since the beginning of this year, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has visited the United States and Europe and hosted the G7 summit... "Japan has established relations with the United States and the West, including with the United States, the European Union, and NATO, through values diplomacy." Lv Yaodong said, then turned his attention to the "global south," in order to win these countries over and join the Western camp.
"This is the fundamental purpose of Lin Fangzheng's trip," said Lv Yaodong. These countries generally hold a neutral stance on issues such as the situation in the Indo Pacific region and the crisis in Ukraine, and are seen as a "middle ground".
Japan's emphasis on the "middle zone" is also reflected in its arrangement to host the G7 summit in May this year. At that time, Japan invited up to 8 countries to participate in the expanded conference, of which 7 countries belonged to the so-called "Indo Pacific region", and 6 countries were "global southern" countries covering Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania.
Previously, Lin Fangzheng had already visited Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil, and Argentina earlier this year, which was also seen as a project aimed at the "global south".
Hot topics
At present, Lin Fangzheng has finished his trip to South Asia and is about to embark on a trip to Africa. The situation in the Indo Pacific region and the crisis in Ukraine are undoubtedly the main issues. According to Japanese media, Lin Fangzheng's trip "takes into account China's movements and the situation in Ukraine.".
On July 27th, Lin Fangzheng arrived at the first stop of his trip and held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng, covering topics such as the situation in the Indo Pacific region and cooperation in the field of security. Indian officials also revealed that the two sides have explored cooperation in key technology areas, including semiconductors and supply chains. Currently, India has made the construction of the chip manufacturing industry a national priority.
In India, Lin Fangzheng also visited the rail transit system built with Japanese assistance. Lv Yaodong noticed that former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga recently led a delegation to visit India and also visited India's high-speed rail construction using the Japanese Shinkansen model, creating an atmosphere for bilateral relations at the economic and trade level. According to Japanese media reports, the Japanese delegation visiting India this time is relatively large, including 101 economic professionals from 54 enterprises in the fields of finance, infrastructure, etc.
Hu Lingyuan stated that Lin Fangzheng's trip may also test India's latest views on the Ukraine crisis, as well as whether there will be changes and adjustments in India's relationship with Russia. As the Ukrainian crisis continues, the international landscape is also undergoing changes.
On July 29, Lin Fang was in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka, where he held talks with the President of Sri Lanka, Victor Masingha, and Foreign Minister Sabri. In addition to the situation in the Indo Pacific region, it also involved issues such as the country's debt problem.
On July 30th, Lin Fang was in Maldivian capital Male and had talks with foreign country Changsha Shide. In addition to the situation in the Indo Pacific region, it also involved issues such as addressing climate change.
Lv Yaodong noticed that during his visits to India, Sri Lanka, and Maldives, Lin Fangzheng almost always expressed his views on the situation in the Indo Pacific region at every stop, and repeatedly mentioned the so-called "rule-based international order", "which has some implications for testing the attitude of other countries.".
In Africa, Lin Fangzheng may visit the headquarters of the African Union and hold talks with senior officials from South Africa, Uganda, and Ethiopia on recent hot topics such as the food crisis.
Hu Lingyuan stated that as Lin Fang is visiting six countries in Asia and Africa, it coincides with the ongoing and even escalating crisis in Ukraine. At the same time, the profound impact of this crisis on Africa and even the world is becoming increasingly prominent, including the food crisis.
Just last week, the second Russia Africa Summit and Economic and Humanitarian Forum were held in St. Petersburg, Russia. Russian President Putin said that Russia is prepared to provide 25000 to 50000 tons of grain to some African countries for free, while expanding cooperation in multiple fields between Russia and Africa. But in the long run, this food crisis still needs to be resolved.
Difficult to fulfill one's wish
While paying attention to regional and international hot topics, two scholars stated that Lin Fangzheng's trip reflects Japan's long-term diplomatic considerations.
"Overall, since taking office, the Kishida government has been trying to deepen and implement the 'Indo Pacific Strategy', weaving this web more densely, thicker, and more resilient." Hu Lingyuan said, and Lin Fangzheng's trip is one of the steps to achieve this goal, which will complement Japan's diplomacy and play a supportive role.
Lv Yaodong stated that Lin Fangzheng's visit reflects "Japan's pursuit of discourse power in participating in international affairs, or in other words, exerting influence and seeking leadership.".
But both scholars also stated that although Japan is making diplomatic efforts, the expected goals are difficult to achieve.
Lv Yaodong stated that Lin Fangzheng expressed his diplomatic philosophy during his recent visit and attempted to implement it in practice. However, these countries are not willing to intervene in international conflicts or choose sides, but are committed to creating a stable international environment to promote their own development.
Secondly, the construction of a rule-based international order based on their own interests by the United States and the West does not align with the common interests of the international community. This move is not truly aimed at helping countries in the "global South" to overcome poverty and achieve development, but rather to safeguard the interests of the United States and the West themselves.
Furthermore, it remains to be seen how much resources Japan can allocate in assisting African countries.
Hu Lingyuan also stated that Japan's role in coordinating various positions on the Ukrainian crisis is limited.
Pan Jiegen, head of the South Asia and Indo Pacific Affairs Center at the Swedish Institute for Security and Development Policy, also noted that Japan has not fully accepted the concept of "global South", but has described it as "developing and emerging countries", as evidenced by the G7 summit communiqu é. In addition, the development of Japan's relations with countries in the "Global South" often emphasizes bilateral cooperation and targeted initiatives, rather than a package of policies aimed at the entire "Global South".
Pan Jiegen believes that this is related to the pressure within Japan and the competition faced by Japan's limited resources. Currently, Japan is facing its own economic challenges, as well as an aging population and high public debt, which require the Japanese government to carefully allocate resources. "In view of this, Japan's foreign policy trend indicates that Japan has adopted a cautious and conditional attitude towards the 'global south'."
Japanese public opinion has also noticed that many emerging market countries hold a neutral stance on regional and international hot topics. Moreover, the international status of countries such as India and South Africa is constantly improving, so it is not easy for Japan to successfully win them over.
Kyodo News quoted an official from the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs as saying, "It is necessary to develop detailed and far-reaching strategies based on the positions of various countries.".
