Is Afghanistan okay?, Depth | Kabul after two years of US military withdrawal | Interim government | Afghanistan

Two years ago, after the Taliban took over the capital Kabul in Afghanistan, the US military hastily withdrew. On August 30, 2021, as the last US military plane left Kabul Airport, the 20-year war in Afghanistan also came to an end in the "Kabul moment". Two years later, when the interim government of Afghanistan announced that August 31st would be designated as the anniversary of the withdrawal of foreign troops, the world once again turned its attention to Afghanistan. What is the current situation in Afghanistan after the second anniversary of the US withdrawal? Can the trauma left by the US military in Afghanistan over the past 20 years heal?

What is the current situation in Afghanistan?

What is the current situation in Afghanistan?

But for many Afghan people, this holiday does not bring joy, but rather reminds them of the pain brought about by the war.

Recently, the interim government of Afghanistan issued a statement stating that it has officially approved August 31st as the anniversary of the withdrawal of foreign troops, which will become a national public holiday in Afghanistan.

At a critical period of transition from chaos to governance, after two years of the interim government in Afghanistan, how is Afghanistan now?

But for many Afghan people, this holiday does not bring joy, but rather reminds them of the pain brought about by the war.

In 2001, the United States launched the Afghanistan War under the pretext of "counter-terrorism", but the so-called "counter-terrorism" by the US military in Afghanistan led to an increase in the number of terrorist organizations in Afghanistan from single digits more than 20 years ago to over 20 today.

During the 20 years in Afghanistan, the US military indiscriminately killed innocent people, causing a huge disaster to the local people. After the hasty withdrawal of the US military, Afghanistan also left a "mess": lack of infrastructure, lack of public transportation and water and heating systems, and a large number of people living in self built adobe houses on the mountains

However, it should be pointed out that the extremist forces within Afghanistan have not disappeared, and the risks brought by the branches of the Islamic State, such as the Islamic State of Khorasan and the Pakistani Taliban, still exist. Statistics show that over 1000 Afghan civilians have died in bombings and violent incidents since 2021.

At a critical period of transition from chaos to governance, after two years of the interim government in Afghanistan, how is Afghanistan now?

Zhu Yongbiao, a professor of the "the Belt and Road" Research Center of Lanzhou University and the Afghanistan Research Center, said that from the perspective of currency, the exchange rate of the Afghan Nepalese against the US dollar is currently stable at around 80, and has recovered to the level of the previous government. There has also been no significant inflation in terms of prices, and the increase in prices of basic household items such as flour and oil is very small. However, this is not only the result of the efforts of the Afghan Taliban, but also relies on the international community's "blood transfusion". The United Nations provides billions of dollars in annual aid to Afghanistan to ensure its currency stability.

Analysts believe that from a security perspective, after the withdrawal of the US military, Afghanistan has become more politically stable and has made some progress in counter-terrorism and other areas.

Zhu Yongbiao believes that it is worth acknowledging that the Taliban in Afghanistan are relatively more moderate in all aspects compared to when they first took power from 1996 to 2001, and have taken measures and achieved certain results. However, within two years of taking office, the Taliban in Afghanistan did not protect the rights of women and ethnic minorities as promised, which has led to criticism from the interim government.

In 2001, the United States launched the Afghanistan War under the pretext of "counter-terrorism", but the so-called "counter-terrorism" by the US military in Afghanistan led to an increase in the number of terrorist organizations in Afghanistan from single digits more than 20 years ago to over 20 today.

Trauma still persists after the withdrawal of the US military

Wang Zhen, a researcher at the International Studies Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, stated that the interim government of Afghanistan has achieved certain results in combating domestic terrorist activities, especially in combating the extremist organization "Islamic State" branch "Islamic State Khorasan", which is of great significance for stabilizing society and political power. The Taliban has promised the international community not to allow terrorist organizations around the world to use Afghanistan as a base to launch attacks on other countries. In terms of drug control, the interim government of Afghanistan has also taken prohibition measures, and the area of poppy cultivation has been significantly reduced.

Over the past two years, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has remained worrying.

However, it should be pointed out that the extremist forces within Afghanistan have not disappeared, and the risks brought by the branches of the Islamic State, such as the Islamic State of Khorasan and the Pakistani Taliban, still exist. Statistics show that over 1000 Afghan civilians have died in bombings and violent incidents since 2021.

Earlier this year, Yumiko Takashima, the acting representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Afghanistan, told the media that 98% of Afghan people live below the poverty line recognized by the United Nations, and more than half of the population needs emergency assistance. According to local media reports, about 3 million Afghan children have been forced to drop out of school to earn money to support their families due to poverty.

In terms of economy, after the withdrawal of the US military, Afghanistan has now maintained overall stability in prices and currency, and has also formulated a series of economic plans. However, the overall economic development is not significant and still relies on external assistance from the international community.

Although the United States has withdrawn its troops, the US government continues to impose unilateral sanctions on Afghanistan during its most difficult period, confiscating Afghan overseas assets, and even obstructing the flow of humanitarian aid funds into Afghanistan.

Zhu Yongbiao, a professor of the "the Belt and Road" Research Center of Lanzhou University and the Afghanistan Research Center, said that from the perspective of currency, the exchange rate of the Afghan Nepalese against the US dollar is currently stable at around 80, and has recovered to the level of the previous government. There has also been no significant inflation in terms of prices, and the increase in prices of basic household items such as flour and oil is very small. However, this is not only the result of the efforts of the Afghan Taliban, but also relies on the international community's "blood transfusion". The United Nations provides billions of dollars in annual aid to Afghanistan to ensure its currency stability.

Zhu Yongbiao stated that the humanitarian and economic crisis in Afghanistan is a long-term issue, but the scale and severity of the crisis are worsening after the withdrawal of the US military. Although the interim government of Afghanistan has taken a series of economic measures, its own family background is weak, and the task of normalizing relations with the outside world has not been completed. This has made Afghanistan's economic development difficult, and also severely constrained the ways and means of fundamentally improving people's livelihoods.

In terms of social governance, the interim government of Afghanistan has also maintained basic social order and stability.

But even more difficult is that Afghanistan still faces sanctions from the United States and the West. Zhu Yongbiao said that currently, the United States and some European countries continue to impose sanctions on Afghanistan, freezing nearly $9 billion in Afghanistan's overseas assets. This results in Afghanistan, although enjoying a transportation hub position in Central Asia, South Asia, and West Asia, as well as comparative advantages in mineral resources, being unable to fully utilize and utilize them. Concerns about US and Western sanctions and the prospects of the interim government in Afghanistan have also deterred foreign investors.

Zhu Yongbiao believes that it is worth acknowledging that the Taliban in Afghanistan are relatively more moderate in all aspects compared to when they first took power from 1996 to 2001, and have taken measures and achieved certain results. However, within two years of taking office, the Taliban in Afghanistan did not protect the rights of women and ethnic minorities as promised, which has led to criticism from the interim government.

Can the pain heal?

Wang Zhen also stated that the interim government of Afghanistan has carried out a series of work after taking office, and it can be said that there have been gains and losses. However, the conservative tendencies of the interim government, especially the restrictions on women's employment and education, are not only incompatible with modern society and not conducive to its own economic recovery, but also a significant blow to its international image. This has also led to the fact that although the Taliban has been in contact with relevant countries, they have not opened up a significant diplomatic situation.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, once bluntly stated that when the world's attention is focused on Ukraine, the international community should not forget the severe humanitarian situation in Afghanistan. In today's Afghanistan, foreign investment has dried up and the international community's financial assistance has significantly decreased.

Trauma still persists after the withdrawal of the US military

Zhu Yongbiao believes that the future prospects of Afghanistan will depend on three factors. Firstly, will the United States maintain its current policy and sanctions against Afghanistan. Secondly, will the Afghan Taliban become more moderate as expected by the international community. Finally, can the international community maintain its "blood transfusion" aid to Afghanistan.

After the end of the 20-year war, the US military left behind a riddled Afghanistan, posing numerous challenges to peace and reconstruction today.

Wang Zhen also pointed out that Afghanistan's neighboring countries, including China, are providing humanitarian assistance and reaching preliminary consensus on economic reconstruction. China is also making international coordination and diplomatic efforts to help Afghanistan resolve the humanitarian crisis, and actively helping Afghanistan integrate into the "the Belt and Road" construction, ultimately enabling Afghanistan to form its own economic hematopoietic capacity.

Over the past two years, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has remained worrying.