What are the new characteristics of consumption and investment in China in the first half of the year? Authoritative Interpretation → Global | Industry | China
By mid year, various economic data for the first half of the year in China are being released one after another. Since the beginning of this year, a series of policy measures have been introduced from the national to local levels to boost the economy. What is the current trend of China's economy? What new changes and characteristics have emerged in the endogenous driving force of economic development? Before the release of the main economic indicators, the reporter interviewed authoritative experts from multiple high-end think tanks and chief economists from research institutions to listen to their analysis and interpretation of the economic situation in the first half of the year.
Today, let's focus on domestic consumption and investment. What are the new findings in the data in terms of total quantity and structure? What are the changing trends worth paying special attention to?
Continuous optimization of consumption structure driven by new demands and upgrading of consumption
From this year-on-year trend chart of the total retail sales of consumer goods in China in recent years, it can be seen that in the first five months of this year, the cumulative total retail sales of consumer goods reached 18.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 3.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.69% compared to the same period last year. Experts say that compared to before, the total consumption of Chinese residents has been returning to normal levels since the first half of the year.
Zhao Yue, Chief Economist of Hong Kong Wealth Management Securities: Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of retail sales has increased. There is a reference to the impact of a low base in the same period last year. However, even after deducting it, we can still see that the consumption situation reflected by the actual total retail sales of goods in society has basically returned to normal. The catering industry, which was previously heavily impacted, has also seen significant improvement.
Since the first half of the year, many popular products have emerged in various regions, with diversified new consumption scenarios and models, stimulating new consumer demand. Not only that, consumption in areas such as transportation, education, and medical services has also continued to grow, all of which are intuitively reflected in the changes in consumption structure. Experts say that the proportion of service-oriented consumption has increased overall, reflecting the increasing demand for high-quality and personalized consumption among consumers.
Professor Peng Siqing from the Marketing Department of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University: The consumption structure of residents is changing, undergoing transformation and upgrading, which is different from general physical consumption. Service consumption may rely on a better ecosystem, a better system, and it is a chain. As the proportion of service consumption continues to increase, it is actually very helpful for the improvement and upgrading of Chinese industries, such as the tertiary industry service industry itself.
Experts predict that with a mild economic recovery and further efforts in a new round of stable growth measures, the promoting effect of consumption on the economy will continue to emerge in the future.
Professor Peng Siqing from the Marketing Department of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University: We need to use more new technologies, explore more new consumption scenarios, and apply new consumption models to provide consumers with better and new experiences and enjoyment. To reassure consumers, ensuring excellent quality of various products and services, and connecting all aspects of consumption, so that consumers can be very happy during the consumption process, I think these are all things we should do to have a better and higher quality consumption in the future.
Significant recovery in production and investment in key areas
Not only is the total consumption and structure of residents continuously optimized, but as a barometer of the capital market, the development and performance of listed companies also reflect the implementation of national policies, as well as the direction and degree of capital support for industries. So, what is the overall business situation of listed companies in China since the beginning of this year? Experts have analyzed our research from a global perspective.
In this study that includes the development of global listed companies, experts have outlined the overall development of Chinese listed companies since the beginning of this year by collecting data from the first quarter reports of all Chinese listed companies, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.
He Zhiyi, Chief Expert of the Global Industry Research Institute at Tsinghua University: We have found that profits are increasing in five industries: daily consumption industry, communication business industry, public utility industry, energy industry, and non daily consumption industry. This situation is good. According to the global industry classification standards, out of the 11 major industries, 5 of our industries have shown profit growth. In two industries, there has been both profit growth and sales revenue growth, which are the daily consumption industry and the communication business industry.
Refining the dimensions, there are 11 major categories of industries, including 158 sub sectors. Continuing to use sales revenue and profit indicators to divide, we found that since the beginning of this year, multiple sub sectors of strategic emerging industries supported by the state have shown a "double growth" trend.
Chief Expert of the Global Industry Research Institute at Tsinghua University, He Zhiyi: Wireless telecommunications business, semiconductor products, semiconductor equipment, electrical components and equipment, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, specialty chemicals, and so on, among these sub industries, there is a very obvious "double growth", for example, the average growth rate of semiconductor products and semiconductor equipment is around 30%.
At the same time, observing the changes in power generation, we also found that the cumulative value of power generation in the first five months of this year increased by 3.90% year-on-year. The power generation in May increased by 5.60% compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, social production and life have been accelerating their recovery, and the economy has stabilized and improved.
Zhao Yue, Chief Economist of Hong Kong Fortune Securities: In terms of electricity consumption, industry, especially manufacturing, accounts for a very high proportion of electricity consumption, and the absolute value of power generation has maintained a relatively stable growth trend. This data actually shows the current development of China's industry, especially manufacturing, from one side, which is relatively in a stable growth state.
Transforming the mode, adjusting the structure, and achieving sustained economic growth
In the first half of this year, China's economy faced a complex and severe international situation, and the recovery and expansion of domestic demand became the key to economic stability and recovery. What are the specific effects of the country's continuous efforts in transforming modes, adjusting structure, and increasing driving force? What is the momentum of future economic growth? Continue to watch the journalist's interview.
Data shows that in the first five months of this year, the national fixed assets investment grew 4.0% year on year. From a sub item perspective, the year-on-year growth rate of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry reached 38.9%; The year-on-year growth rate of electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries reached 27.6%, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile manufacturing industry reached 17.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of railway transportation industry reached 16.4%, all of which are far higher than the national average and have also shown significant growth compared to before. Experts say that these data fully reflect that China's policy guidance and industrial upgrading have played a significant role in key industries. In the future, the leading and driving effects of leading enterprises in key industries will continue to be evident.
He Zhiyi, Chief Expert of the Global Industry Research Institute at Tsinghua University: Economic development relies on industries, and the development of industries relies on leading enterprises in the industry. If they can drive the entire industrial chain, they will form an industrial cluster, creating a scene of prosperity for the entire industry.
Experts say that the main factors driving the economic development of countries around the world have gone through a transition from labor and capital to technology. At present, the Chinese economy is in a critical period of transformation, and economic development pays more attention to quality and efficiency. In this process, changing modes and adjusting structures will drive the reconfiguration of production factors, which will inevitably bring about adjustments such as personnel mobility and enterprise transformation in the short term. From a long-term development perspective, experiencing these changes will continue to improve the driving force of China's economic development and contribute to high-quality development.
Zhao Yue, Chief Economist of Hong Kong Wealth Management Securities: The Chinese economy has shown a significant improvement trend in several aspects such as household consumption and investment. Although there are still some difficulties at the micro level, this is a normal process for any country's economy to move forward. We need to have a scientific and comprehensive understanding of the changes brought about by these structural adjustments, and only by adjusting the driving force through structural adjustments can we ensure sustained economic growth in the future.
