The overall stable operation of domestic prices - Interpretation of May CPI and PPI data month | year-on-year | Overall
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, June 9th (Xinhua) - The overall stability of domestic prices - Interpretation of May CPI and PPI data
Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and Han Jianuo
On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in May, consumer demand continued to recover, and the national consumer price index increased by 0.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, and the overall operation of domestic prices remained stable.
In China's CPI basket of goods, food accounts for a relatively high proportion. In May, food prices increased by 1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the prices of poultry, edible oil, and fresh fruits have increased by 5.6%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, with all increases falling back; The price of pork has decreased from 4% last month to 3.2%; The price of fresh vegetables has decreased by 1.7%, which is 11.8 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
From a month on month perspective, due to seasonal factors, food prices decreased by 0.7% in May, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that due to sufficient market supply, the prices of shrimp and crab, fresh vegetables, pork, eggs, and fresh fruits in food have decreased by 3.5%, 3.4%, 2%, 1.6%, and 0.3%, respectively.
Statistical data shows that in May, non food prices remained stable from a 0.1% increase in the previous month to a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous month. Dong Lijuan stated that in the non food sector, the demand for travel has declined after the holiday, and the prices of air tickets and transportation rental fees have both decreased by 7.2% month on month; Concerts and other performance activities have increased, and movie and performance ticket prices have increased by 0.8% month on month; Summer clothing has been updated with a new season, and clothing prices have increased by 0.4% month on month.
From the perspective of industrial producer prices, in May, the overall international commodity prices declined, and the overall demand for industrial products in domestic and foreign markets was weak. In addition, with a relatively high base compared to the same period last year, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% month on month, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; A year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the previous month.
Specifically, in May, international crude oil and major non-ferrous metal prices declined, driving prices in related domestic industries to decline. Among them, prices in the oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 2.1% month on month, while prices in the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry decreased by 2% month on month. The supply of coal, steel, cement and other industries is generally sufficient, but the demand is weak, and the prices are falling. Among them, the prices of coal mining and washing industries are down 5.2% month on month, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are down 4.2% month on month.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic prices have been operating at a low level. The previous report released by the People's Bank of China pointed out that this is mainly related to the time difference between supply and demand recovery and the base effect.
"Overall, the current low prices are the result of last year's high base effect, combined with input, seasonal and other factors. As the base effect weakens and various policy measures increase efficiency, market demand further recovers and improves. It is expected that prices will gradually rise in the second half of the year," said Zhang Xuewu, Director of the Analysis and Prediction Department of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission.
Data from key e-commerce platforms shows that recent consumption has continued to rebound, with sufficient supply of goods. On the Meituan Maicai platform, there is sufficient supply of seasonal fruits such as watermelons, lychees, and peaches. Key products are updated daily, and prices of fresh products, grain and oil snacks, alcoholic beverages, and other commodities remain stable.
Service industry enterprises continue to have a positive outlook on market recovery and development, and consumption is expected to continue to recover. In May, the business activity index of the service industry was 53.8%, which was 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, the expected business activity index was 60.1%, which remained in the high prosperity range, and all surveyed industries were in the expansion range.
"Due to limited market demand in the short term, the impact of international input may continue, and the periodic low level of year-on-year CPI growth will continue. However, as the policy of expanding domestic demand becomes more effective, economic activity increases, employment gradually improves, and consumer confidence strengthens, the CPI increase will return to a reasonable level." Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the short-term downward trend in some industrial product prices will continue, and it is expected that PPI will gradually rebound in the second half of the year.
