Promoting High Quality Development with New Meteorology and New Action to Achieve New Achievements - From the Meeting of the Central Political Bureau to See the New Trends of Economic Work in the Second Half of 2023 | Risks | Central Political Bureau

Beijing, July 24th (Xinhua News Agency) - New achievements in promoting high-quality development through new meteorological measures - New trends in economic work in the second half of 2023 as seen from the meeting of the Central Political Bureau

Xinhua News Agency reporter

2023 is the beginning year for fully implementing the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and doing a good job in economic work is crucial. How to view the economic performance in the first half of the year? What are the key points of economic work in the second half of the year? The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on the 24th to analyze and study the current economic situation, deploy economic work for the second half of the year, and convey a new trend of firmly promoting high-quality economic development.

The overall economic recovery is improving, adhering to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability

This meeting pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the national economy has continued to recover and overall rebounded. However, the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, operational difficulties for some enterprises, multiple risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and a complex and severe external environment.

The meeting made important analysis and judgment on the current economic situation in China, which is an important prerequisite for doing a good job in the economic work in the second half of the year.

The meeting pointed out that after a smooth transition in epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery is a process of wave like development and tortuous progress.

"We cannot approach this round of recovery with an old-fashioned perspective," said Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. The recovery in the post pandemic period is phased, especially in the transition from social recovery to economic and profit recovery, and then to balance sheet recovery. Fluctuations in indicators and expectations are a normal occurrence.

We need to understand both the short-term form and the long-term trend. In the first half of the year, China's economy grew by 5.5% year-on-year, and its recovery rate is leading among major economies in the world. The meeting emphasized that "China's economy has tremendous development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.".

Since July, the intensive release of new measures to stabilize the economy from the central to local governments has raised expectations for economic development in the second half of the year.

Regarding the economic work in the second half of the year, the meeting emphasized the need to adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, focus on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence, and preventing risks, continuously promoting the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous driving force, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of risks and hidden dangers.

"The meeting focused on key issues in current economic and social development, made a series of important deployments, and accelerated the implementation and effectiveness of various policies, which is of great significance for promoting the continuous improvement of economic operation." said Li Chengjian, Director of the Second Research Office of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Accurate and effective implementation of macroeconomic regulation to boost investor confidence

To do a good job in the economic work of the second half of the year, macroeconomic policy trends have attracted much attention. The meeting pointed out that we should make good use of policy space, find the right direction for development, and solidly promote high-quality economic development. We need to implement precise and effective macroeconomic regulation, strengthen countercyclical regulation and policy reserves.

In response to the challenges facing economic operation, Feng Xuming, Director of the Macro Economic Think Tank at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated that the meeting proposed strengthening countercyclical regulation and policy reserves, which will provide assistance for the recovery of endogenous economic momentum.

"We will continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies," "leverage the role of aggregate and structural monetary policy tools to strongly support technological innovation, the development of the real economy, and small and micro enterprises," and "activate the capital market to boost investor confidence." The meeting made multiple arrangements.

In Feng Xuming's view, fiscal policy will continue to focus on assisting enterprises and promoting investment, maintaining a positive momentum; Monetary policy should actively and flexibly utilize price based tools, and optimize the design of structural monetary policy tools. Strengthening the coordination and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies can help form a joint force to expand demand.

The key to boosting confidence is to stimulate the vitality of enterprises. The meeting pointed out the need to vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system, accelerate the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, and create more pillar industries. We need to promote the deep integration of the digital economy with advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, and promote the secure development of artificial intelligence. To promote the standardized, healthy, and sustainable development of platform enterprises.

Li Gang, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated that further promoting the construction of a modern industrial system will help expand and consolidate the advantages of industrial development, deeply integrate digital technology with the real economy, and cultivate new growth engines.

Actively expanding domestic demand and promoting the resurgence of consumption engines

Insufficient total demand is a prominent contradiction facing the current economic operation. The meeting proposed to actively expand domestic demand, leverage the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth, expand consumption by increasing household income, drive effective supply through terminal demand, and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply side structural reform.

Chen Lifen, a researcher at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in the current context of insufficient global economic growth momentum and slowing global trade growth, we must adhere to the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, so that development can rely more on domestic demand, especially consumer demand.

Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have given priority to restoring and expanding consumption, and the consumer market has shown a steady recovery trend. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 77.2%.

When it comes to expanding consumption in the second half of the year, the meeting proposed to boost bulk consumption of automobiles, electronic products, home furnishings, and promote service consumption such as sports and leisure, cultural tourism, etc.

"Recently, multiple departments have successively introduced several measures to promote bulk consumption such as automobiles, electronic products, and home furnishings. These policies should be implemented in detail. At the same time, effective measures should be taken to promote service consumption such as sports and leisure, cultural tourism, etc., promote consumption expansion and improvement, and drive consumer growth and economic recovery," said Chen Lifen.

In addition, the meeting made it clear that "we should better leverage the role of government investment in promoting local government special bonds issuance and use" and "we should formulate and introduce policy measures to promote private investment".

"With the gradual implementation of policies and measures related to expanding domestic demand, investment and consumption are expected to maintain stable growth in the second half of the year, and the resilience and stability of China's economic development will be further enhanced," said Chen Lifen.

Continuously deepening reform and opening up to stabilize the basic situation of foreign trade and foreign investment

This meeting emphasized the need to continuously deepen reform and opening up, adhere to the "two unwavering principles", effectively improve the core competitiveness of state-owned enterprises, and optimize the development environment for private enterprises.

Not long ago, the announcement of the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the Development and Growth of the Private Economy attracted widespread attention. This meeting further proposed to resolutely crack down on arbitrary fees, fines, and assessments, and solve the problem of government arrears of corporate accounts. We need to establish and improve a regular communication and exchange mechanism with enterprises, encourage them to dare to venture, invest, and take risks, and actively create markets.

Yang Guangpu, Director of the Research Office of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated that the meeting will focus on specific issues and key links of concern to enterprises, refine practical measures, effectively solve practical difficulties and optimize the environment, continuously remove unreasonable restrictions and obstacles, and help enterprises recover their vitality and stabilize their expectations.

We need to take multiple measures to stabilize the basic situation of foreign trade and investment, increase international flights, ensure stable and smooth operation of China Europe freight trains, and support conditional free trade pilot zones and free trade ports to connect with international high standard economic and trade rules. The conference made important arrangements to promote high-level opening up to the outside world, promote stable scale and structure of foreign trade, and make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign investment.

Yang Guangpu said that in a complex and severe external environment, continuing to promote high-level opening up is of great significance for stabilizing foreign investment and foreign trade. The series of deployments of this conference will help to better facilitate the domestic and international dual circulation, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, share the opportunities of the Chinese market with the world, and inject new momentum into global economic growth.

Effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner

Only by coordinating development and security can we ensure the stability and long-term development of the Chinese economy. The meeting made specific arrangements for preventing and resolving risks in key areas.

The meeting proposed to adapt to the new situation of significant changes in the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, implement policies tailored to the city, make good use of policy toolboxes, better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

"This is a precise judgment on the changes in the supply and demand relationship and the supply and demand structure of China's real estate market under the new situation, releasing a clear signal to timely adjust and optimize policies and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market." Zou Linhua, head of the Housing Big Data Project Team of the Institute of Financial Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the main sources of future real estate market demand include new housing demand for urbanization, improved housing demand, old housing renewal demand, etc.

The meeting proposed to effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks, and to develop and implement a comprehensive debt restructuring plan.

"The problem of implicit debt of local governments is currently a key area for preventing and resolving risks." Feng Xuming said that dealing with and resolving the problem of implicit debt of local governments is highly complex. This meeting proposed the development and implementation of a comprehensive debt reduction plan to strengthen coordination and coordination among departments and governments at all levels.

The meeting proposed to strengthen financial supervision and steadily promote the reform and insurance of high-risk small and medium-sized financial institutions.

Zeng Gang, Director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, stated that based on the business and risk characteristics of small and medium-sized financial institutions, a differentiated regulatory system should be established. At the same time, the reform of the institutional mechanism of small and medium-sized financial institutions should be promoted, and the risk resolution and disposal system should be improved to firmly guard the bottom line of preventing systemic risks.

Intensify efforts to ensure people's livelihoods and stabilize the "rice bowl" of food and energy

To achieve high-quality development, it is necessary to continuously enhance people's well-being.

Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. In the first half of the year, the overall employment situation in China remained stable, but the issue of youth employment remained prominent. The meeting proposed to "increase efforts to ensure people's livelihoods and comprehensively consider stabilizing employment from a strategic perspective.".

"The meeting further emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and issued a signal to increase the strength of stabilizing employment policies. With the implementation and refinement of stabilizing employment measures, the employment situation is expected to continue to maintain overall stability in the second half of the year." said Zhang Chenggang, Associate Professor at Capital University of Economics and Trade and Director of the China New Employment Forms Research Center.

To achieve high-quality development, it is also necessary to coordinate development and security.

At present, the country has achieved a bountiful summer harvest, with a promising early rice harvest and normal growth of autumn crops. This meeting proposed to strengthen the protection and quality improvement of arable land, consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, and comprehensively promote rural revitalization. In addition, the meeting emphasized the need to resolutely prevent major safety accidents and ensure the supply of energy and electricity during peak summer periods.

"Stabilizing the two 'rice bowls' of food and energy is crucial to the overall economic development and social stability. Implementing the conference's deployment, strengthening food security, and enhancing the ability to ensure energy and resource supply will provide important support for stabilizing the overall economy." said Wang Likun, Deputy Researcher at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

The more critical the moment is, the more we need to strengthen our confidence and move forward in unison.

To do a good job in the economic work of the second half of the year, the key is to unify our thoughts and actions with the analysis and judgment of the economic situation by the Party Central Committee, effectively implement a series of policies and decisions of the Party Central Committee, better stimulate the enthusiasm of workers and entrepreneurs, gather strong forces to promote high-quality development, and strive to achieve the annual development goals.