July National Economy Continuously Restores (Authoritative Release) Intelligence | Consumption | Authoritative
Drafted by Zhang Danfeng
Core Reading
In July, the overall operation of the national economy was stable, and transformation and upgrading were solidly promoted. Domestic demand continues to expand, industrial upgrading continues, employment prices remain generally stable, innovative and green development momentum is improving, and people's livelihoods are effectively guaranteed. Despite facing pressure and challenges, there are many favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery and support for high-quality development. The economy is expected to maintain stable operation in the second half of the year, and the quality of development will continue to improve.
"In July, the national economy continued to recover, production demand remained basically stable, employment prices remained generally stable, and the quality of development steadily improved." On August 15th, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office.
At the press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that it will increase the release of service retail sales data starting from this month. The retail sales of services include the retail sales of service activities in the fields of transportation, accommodation, catering, education, health, sports, entertainment, etc. In the first seven months, the retail sales of services increased by 20.3% year-on-year.
Although the growth rate of some indicators has slowed down, the overall trend of the national economy continues to be positive
In the first half of the year, China's economy continued to recover and overall rebounded. In July, the overall operation of the national economy was stable, and transformation and upgrading were solidly promoted.
Domestic demand continues to expand. In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.3% year-on-year; The service retail sales increased by 20.3% year-on-year; National fixed assets investment increased by 3.4% year on year.
The trend of industrial upgrading continues. In the first seven months, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.5% year-on-year, significantly faster than the growth rate of all investments; The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.1% year-on-year, continuing to be faster than all industries above designated size; The production index of information transmission, software, and information technology services increased by 11.9% year-on-year, indicating a positive development in the modern service industry.
The overall stability of employment prices. In July, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In July, CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year due to a higher base compared to the same period last year, but increased by 0.2% month on month, marking the first increase in five months; Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
In response to the social concern about youth employment, Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, various regions have made every effort to promote the employment of college graduates, and have held 198000 offline campus recruitment activities. According to the information obtained from the education department, the employment situation of college graduates is generally stable, with a slight increase in both the implementation rate and the number of implementation compared to the same period last year.
The momentum of innovative and green development is improving. In the first seven months, investment in scientific research and technology services increased by 23.1% year-on-year, and investment in science and technology continued to increase. The driving force of innovation driven development continued to strengthen. In July, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 24.9% and 65.1%, respectively. The green and low-carbon transformation continued to deepen, and new energy products grew rapidly.
The guarantee of people's livelihood is strong and effective. In the first seven months, raw coal production increased by 3.6% year-on-year, and power generation increased by 3.8%. In July, grain prices fell by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and prices of fresh vegetables, pork, beef, and mutton all fell slightly.
"In July, although the growth rate of some indicators slowed down, the overall trend of the national economy continued to be positive," said Fu Linghui.
Industrial upgrading continues to advance, new momentum accumulates and grows, and industrial operation is expected to maintain overall stability
In July, the ex factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 1 percentage point narrower than the previous month, marking the first time this year that the decline has narrowed; The PPI decreased by 0.2% month on month, with a decrease rate narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month.
"The narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI is beneficial for improving corporate revenue and restoring industrial production," said Fu Linghui. In July, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.7% year-on-year.
From the perspective of industrial operation, there are four main characteristics of industrial production in July.
The overall development of high-end manufacturing and intelligent product manufacturing is good. As the industry extends towards the high-end, the high-end manufacturing industry, represented by aerospace, has grown rapidly. In July, the added value of the aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 11.2% year-on-year. The demand for smart consumer products among residents has expanded, driving growth in related industries. In July, the added value of the smart consumer equipment manufacturing industry increased by 15.3% year-on-year.
The development of new energy related industries is improving, and products such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic cells are growing rapidly, which is also strengthening the driving force for upstream and downstream industries. In July, the production of charging stations increased by 26.6%; The production of ultra white glass products for solar energy industry increased by 52.3%.
The raw material industry is accelerating production. With the strengthening of terminal demand, the added value of raw material manufacturing industry in July increased by 8.8% year-on-year, which is 2 percentage points faster than the previous month. Among them, the added value of the steel and petroleum coal processing industries increased by 15.6% and 14.8% respectively.
"In the next stage, despite facing market demand constraints, as the economy recovers, industrial upgrading continues to advance, new momentum accumulates and grows, and industrial operations are expected to maintain overall stability," said Fu Linghui.
With the strengthening of endogenous economic power and the increase in macroeconomic policy regulation, the economy is expected to continue to recover and improve
Looking at the world, the world economy still faces downward pressure. Domestically, economic recovery still faces constraints such as insufficient demand, interweaving structural contradictions and cyclical issues.
"However, China's domestic market has significant advantages such as great potential, strong industrial foundation, and broad development space, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed." Fu Linghui said that with the strengthening of endogenous economic power and increased macroeconomic policy regulation, the economy is expected to continue to recover and improve.
Domestic demand continues to drive growth——
From the perspective of consumption, the recovery trend of the consumer market is still ongoing.
Service consumption has grown rapidly. Driven by summer tourism, service consumption has grown rapidly. In July, the operating passenger volume increased by 47% year-on-year, and catering revenue increased by 15.8%.
Cultural and entertainment consumption continues to expand. In July, the national box office revenue increased by 111% month on month, with a significant increase in entertainment activities such as cultural and sports performances, driving consumption growth.
Online retail continues to remain active. In the first seven months, the online retail sales of physical goods in China increased by 10% year-on-year, accounting for 26.4% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in society, and contributing 35% to the growth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period.
The retail sales of physical stores have grown steadily. With the increase of offline consumption activities, the retail sales of physical stores with restrictions increased by 4.2% year-on-year in the first seven months.
"In the next stage, with the recovery of the economy, improvement of residents' employment, income increase, and effective policies to promote consumption, consumption is expected to continue to expand." Fu Linghui said that from the observation of big data, tourism consumption is expected to continue to rebound, and related consumption such as electronic products and home furnishings is expected to gradually improve.
From the perspective of investment, manufacturing and infrastructure investment are expected to continue to grow, contributing to stable economic development.
In the first seven months, although investment in real estate development decreased by 8.5%, investment in infrastructure increased by 6.8% year on year, and investment in manufacturing increased by 5.7%, supporting the continued expansion of fixed assets investment.
Fu Linghui stated that with the upgrading and development of industries and the enhancement of innovation driven development, investment in manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to continue to grow, helping to stabilize economic development.
The external environment is expected to improve——
Look at the requirements. "Since July, global inflation has significantly declined, and interest rate hikes in major economies may be coming to an end. The turbulence in the global financial market has eased, and the global economy may be better than expected." Fu Linghui said, creating favorable conditions for the stable development of China's foreign trade.
Look at the supply. Our country has a complete industrial system, relatively complete supporting facilities, and strong competitiveness in the international market for exporting goods. Since the beginning of this year, China's export market share in the international market has remained relatively stable, and foreign trade has shown strong resilience.
At the same time, China has continued to promote the diversification of trade partners. In the first July, the import and export to countries along the "the Belt and Road" increased by 7.4% year-on-year, faster than the growth of all imports and exports. Fu Linghui stated that in the second half of the year, as the policy effects of stabilizing foreign trade scale and optimizing structure continue to emerge, China's exports are expected to maintain basic stability.
Macro policy effects gradually emerge——
Since the beginning of this year, focusing on key issues in economic operation, various departments have successively launched policies to promote consumption of home furnishings, electronic products, and new energy vehicles, and introduced policies to accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure and promote private investment to expand investment.
"Recently, relevant departments are actively planning and implementing reserve policies to promote economic recovery and improvement." Fu Linghui said that the effects of these policies are gradually becoming apparent, which will help promote economic recovery and improvement.
"Overall, despite facing pressure and challenges, there are many favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery and support for high-quality development. The economy is expected to maintain stable operation in the second half of the year, and the quality of development will continue to improve," said Fu Linghui.
