Authoritative Voice | Understanding the Current Economic Situation and Policies from Three Keywords | Risk | Economy

How to recognize and grasp the important judgments made by the recent Central Political Bureau meeting on the economic situation in the first half of the year? In what areas will macroeconomic regulation policies focus on in the next stage? Around the current hot issues of concern in various aspects, CCTV reporters from the Central Television interviewed the main officials of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Question 1: What is the current economic situation like?

We can understand and grasp the current economic situation from three key words.

One is "recovery", which means that the overall economic operation has rebounded and both supply and demand have continued to recover. From the main data of the first half of the year, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 5.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate 1 percentage point faster than the first quarter. The summer harvest of grain and oil is once again abundant, with a total summer grain production of 292.26 billion catties; Industrial production has steadily recovered, with a 3.7% increase in total industrial added value in the first half of the year, which is 0.8 percentage points faster than the first quarter; The service industry grew rapidly, with a growth rate of 6.4% in the first half of the year, accelerating by 1 percentage point. Consumption has recovered rapidly, with the total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 8.2% in the first half of the year, accelerating by 2.4 percentage points, and sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 44.1%; The scale of investment continued to expand, with fixed assets investment increasing by 3.8%; Foreign trade exports maintained growth, with goods imports and exports increasing by 2.1%, of which exports increased by 3.7%.

The second is "improving", which means the economic structure is continuously optimized and the quality of development is steadily improving. The driving effect of domestic demand has been strengthened, with the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth in the first half of the year reaching 110.8%, an increase of 59.4 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the final consumption contribution rate reached 77.2%, an increase of 46.4 percentage points. Infrastructure, manufacturing, and high-tech industries saw rapid growth in investment, with growth rates of 7.2%, 6%, and 12.5% in the first half of the year, respectively. Industrial upgrading has accumulated and developed rapidly, with the added value of equipment manufacturing increasing by 6.5%, 2.7 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size; The C919 large passenger aircraft has officially entered commercial operation, and the first domestically produced large cruise ship has been docked. The total export of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells has increased by 61.6%.

The third is "stability", which means that overall employment prices remain stable and people's lives continue to improve. In the first half of the year, urban employment increased by 6.78 million, an increase of 240000 compared to the same period last year. In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%. In the first half of the year, consumer prices for residents increased by 0.7% year-on-year. The income of residents continues to increase, with a per capita disposable income growth of 5.8% nationwide, an increase of 2 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, the per capita disposable income of rural residents increased by 7.2%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points. In the first half of the year, 42600 old urban communities were newly renovated, involving 7.42 million households. We will prudently implement national pooling of basic pension insurance for enterprise employees, and further increase the level of basic pension for retirees. The coverage of direct settlement for medical treatment across provinces and regions continues to expand.

The good achievements in economic and social development in the first half of the year were achieved in the context of weakened external demand, increased adverse effects of international environmental changes on me, interweaving and overlapping cyclical structural contradictions in China, and gradually emerging risks and hidden dangers in some areas. These achievements met expectations and were not easy to come by.

Question 2: How do you view the economic trend in the second half of the year?

After three years of impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, after the smooth transition of epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery will be a process of wavy development and zigzag progress, and there will be fluctuations in some economic indicators. Currently, China's economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges from both domestic and international sources. The demand in the international market is weakening, risks are accumulating in the global economic and financial sectors, the geopolitical landscape is deeply adjusted, and the external environment is complex and severe; Insufficient domestic demand, some enterprises face operational difficulties, and there are risks and hidden dangers in some areas.

One is a more solid foundation for development. China's economic scale has exceeded 120 trillion yuan, with a complete industrial system, abundant high-quality human resources, convenient software and hardware infrastructure network, continuously improving security capabilities, and steadily enhancing economic risk resistance. The second is the continuous release of market potential. China is the world's largest potential consumer market, with a huge population base and continuously improving population quality, continuously expanding market growth. There is a strong demand for investment in public services, infrastructure, and other fields. Economic structure optimization, industrial structure adjustment, regional coordinated development, and urbanization rate increase contain huge market space. Adhere to the organic combination of implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply side structural reform, and the advantage of a super large scale market will be further demonstrated. The third is to accelerate the transformation of new and old kinetic energy. Innovation capabilities continue to improve, traditional industries are steadily advancing towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation, advanced manufacturing and modern service industries are accelerating their integration and development, and strategic emerging industries are accelerating their growth and development. The fourth is the continuous enhancement of development vitality. The comprehensive deepening of reforms in key areas and key links, the steady improvement of the level of opening up to the outside world, the expansion of domestic market space, and the release of potential will continuously stimulate the vitality, motivation, and creativity of business entities. The fifth is that policy effects continue to emerge. The series of decisions and deployments made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council are accelerating implementation and taking effect. Policies such as expanding domestic demand, strengthening entities, and preventing risks are being continuously introduced, and existing measures and incremental policies are working together to further enhance the synergy of promoting high-quality development. In the second half of the year, China's economy will maintain a stable and positive trend on the basis of sustained recovery in the first half of the year.

In short, we have the confidence, conditions, and ability to promote the continuous improvement of economic structure, the continuous enhancement of growth momentum, and the continuous improvement of development trend, and to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and tasks with high quality.

Three questions: The next stage of macroeconomic regulation policies

In which areas will we focus our efforts?

The Central Political Bureau meeting has made a systematic deployment of economic work in the second half of the year. We will make every effort to implement it, adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, closely focus on the primary task of high-quality development and the strategic task of building a new development pattern, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, increase macroeconomic policy regulation, focus on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence, and preventing risks, continuously promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous power, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of risks and hidden dangers, and promote the effective improvement of quality and the reasonable growth of quantity in the economy. We need to focus on the following five areas of work.

One is to persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability and consolidating the momentum of economic recovery. Placing stable growth in a more prominent position, implementing precise and effective macroeconomic regulation, continuing to implement proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies, strengthening policy coordination and coordination, implementing policy measures to promote sustained economic recovery and improvement, strengthening countercyclical adjustment, and preparing policies. In accordance with changes in the situation, more targeted and stronger policy measures will be timely and in batches to create a favorable policy environment for enterprise development and lay a solid foundation for sustained economic growth.

The second is to adhere to self-reliance and self-improvement, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy. Focusing on the real economy, forging strengths and addressing weaknesses, vigorously enhancing technological innovation capabilities, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, cultivating and strengthening strategic emerging industries, creating more pillar industries, promoting high-quality development of advanced manufacturing, and further enhancing the resilience and security level of industrial and supply chains.

The third is to adhere to reform and opening up, effectively stimulate the vitality and endogenous motivation of business entities. Focus on the key areas and key links that drive the whole body, and increase the intensity of reform efforts. Adhere to the "two unwavering principles", accelerate the optimization and structural adjustment of state-owned economy layout, and promote the development and growth of private economy. We will steadily expand institutional openness, make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital, and promote high-quality development of the the Belt and Road Initiative.

The fourth is to adhere to bottom line thinking and effectively prevent and resolve internal and external risks and challenges. Systematically plan and implement precise policies, prudently handle and resolve risks and hidden dangers in the fields of real estate, local debt, finance, etc., vigorously enhance the security guarantee capabilities of food and energy resources, and firmly guard against the bottom line of systemic risks.

The fifth is to adhere to putting the people at the center and solidly do a good job in improving people's livelihoods. Solve prominent issues related to people's livelihood, such as employment, and accelerate the filling of supply gaps in public services such as elderly care, childcare, education, and medical care. Strengthen social security and safety nets, strengthen safety production supervision and disaster prevention and mitigation, and continuously improve people's living standards.

Question 4: What other measures are there to expand domestic demand in the second half of the year?

Since the beginning of this year, in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the Development and Reform Commission and relevant parties have firmly implemented the strategy of expanding domestic demand, prioritized the recovery and expansion of consumption, actively expanded effective investment, and introduced a series of policy measures. Currently, these measures are being implemented and taking effect.

In the second half of the year, in terms of expanding domestic demand, firstly, we will better leverage the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth. Introduce policy documents to restore and expand consumption. By vigorously promoting employment and other measures, increase residents' income. Boost bulk consumption, accelerate the construction of charging and parking facilities, and encourage areas with car purchase restrictions to optimize their purchase restriction management policies. Continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihoods, and stability, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of policy toolboxes to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. Promote better service consumption by taking advantage of holidays such as summer, Mid Autumn Festival, and National Day to expand holiday consumption; Make full use of various sports events such as the Universiade and Asian Games, and develop cultural and sports consumption. Research and implement policies and measures to vigorously develop the silver economy. The second is to actively play the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure. Private investment has always been one of the key areas for effective investment. It is necessary to clarify a number of key sub sectors that encourage private capital to participate, strengthen the guarantee of private investment financing, land use and other factors, support the participation of private capital in revitalizing state-owned stock assets, and promote the gradual recovery of private investment. Better leverage the driving role of government investment, solidly promote the 102 major projects of the 14th Five Year Plan and other major economic and social development projects, and accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds.

Five questions: How to alleviate difficulties in the real economy,

Accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system?

The real economy is the foundation of a country's economy. In the second half of the year, we need to accelerate the implementation of policies to assist enterprises and alleviate difficulties, promote the transformation of the real economy, adjust its structure, and increase its momentum, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system.

One is to increase efforts to clear outstanding accounts of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Accelerate the resolution of the problem of government arrears in enterprise accounts, strictly implement the regulations to ensure the payment of funds to small and medium-sized enterprises, implement the information disclosure system for overdue payments of small and micro enterprise accounts by government agencies, public institutions, and large enterprises, and promote the resolution of mutual arrears among enterprises.

The second is to implement comprehensive policies to help enterprises reduce burden and increase efficiency. Continue to optimize and implement tax reduction and fee reduction policies, strictly prohibit excessive collection of taxes, fees, fines, and assessments, promote the stable and moderate reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, and provide diversified relay financial services for technology-based enterprises throughout their entire life cycle. Cultivate a group of characteristic industrial clusters of small and medium-sized enterprises within the county level nationwide.

The third is to strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation. Give full play to the leading and supporting role of technology-based backbone enterprises, create a favorable ecosystem for the growth of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, cultivate more specialized, refined, and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, accelerate the cultivation of high-quality talents that meet industrial needs, strengthen the construction of a new era of high skilled talent team, and promote the deep integration of innovation chain, industry chain, capital chain, and talent chain. Organize more enterprises to lead and participate in key core technology research and development, accelerate cutting-edge technology research and application promotion.

The fourth is to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Support eligible enterprises to undergo scientific transformation based on market development, comprehensively promote the upgrading of high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing systems, solidly promote intelligent manufacturing actions, and orderly implement energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation in key industrial areas. Vigorously develop modern service industry and build a new system of high-quality and efficient service industry. Deeply implement the strategy of storing grain in the land and storing grain in technology, promote the revitalization of the seed industry, and strengthen the support of agricultural technology and equipment.

The fifth is to accelerate the cultivation of strategic emerging industries. We will deepen the implementation of the national strategic emerging industry cluster development project, promote the deep integration of the digital economy with advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, vigorously develop industries such as artificial intelligence, new materials, and new energy, and plan and layout a number of future industries.

At the same time, we will further improve the regular communication and exchange mechanism between government departments and various types of enterprises such as private enterprises, state-owned enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises, and manufacturing enterprises, listen to the real situation of enterprise operation and development, study and propose practical and effective policy measures, and do our best to help enterprises solve practical difficulties. The government and enterprises will work together to promote high-quality economic development.