Why did the supercomputer predict the path like a scattered woman in the sky?, The peripheral airflow of the typhoon will affect Shanghai tomorrow. Typhoon | Sea | Supercomputer
If we say "Kanu" is the most eerie typhoon this year, I'm afraid no one will have any objections. Today, the path predicted by the supercomputer for "Kanu" can be described as "heavenly maidens scattering flowers".
From the graph, it can be seen that the numerical forecast model suggests that there are many possible paths for Kanu to travel in the future. The Shanghai center Meteorological Observatory also believes that the future path of Kanu is complex and diverse.
Is the supercomputer not working properly? What is the reason for the unpredictable changes in "Kanu"?
The answer to the first question is clearly negative. In the early stages of "Kanu", most supercomputers from various institutions had given expectations for landing in Zhejiang. But as the weather system changes, expectations change.
Simply put, there are various weather systems at sea today, which are complex and variable, and may even affect each other. This leads to an increasing number of factors affecting "Kanu", becoming more and more complex. Just like solving a difficult problem, the problem is already difficult. During the process of solving the problem, there are more and more variables that may affect each other, and ultimately
The well-known science popularization account "China Meteorological Enthusiasts" provided a relatively professional answer. They believe that "Kanu" has fallen into a saddle field in the East China Sea, and there are high-pressure systems in the southeast, northwest, and northwest of the typhoon, so its movement speed has slowed down. In the future, it will drag mud and water in the East China Sea until it is stranded near the coast. However, during the detention period of "Kanu", the subtropical high pressure was adjusted, the southwest monsoon erupted, and new typhoon embryos may have emerged. The butterfly effect index was magnified, leading to the uncertain whereabouts of "Kanu".
The complexity of the atmospheric system is also reflected in the intensity of typhoons. The intensity of Kanu's eruption also exceeded the previous judgment of the supercomputer, reaching a super typhoon level. According to the latest monitoring by the Central Meteorological Observatory, "Kanu" was about 780 kilometers southeast of Yuhuan City, Zhejiang Province at 17:00 today, reaching a super typhoon level with a maximum wind force of 16.
According to the prediction made by the Shanghai center Meteorological Observatory today, the "Kanu" typhoon center will enter the East China Sea tomorrow morning, approaching the coastal areas from central Zhejiang to northern Fujian. After entering the East China Sea, the guiding airflow weakens and the movement speed slows down. From the 4th to the 6th, there may be less movement in the above-mentioned coastal waters.
However, the meteorological department of Shanghai emphasized that in the coming days, there are still differences in the prediction of the subtropical high pressure form among institutions, and coupled with active convective activity in Shanghai, it is necessary to closely track and monitor the typhoon's path.
It should be emphasized that for this mysterious and unpredictable typhoon "Kanu", our friends still need to be vigilant and respectful. On the one hand, although "Kanu" has temporarily stopped landing in Zhejiang, the pressure on Taiwan defense in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai has decreased, but the impact is still ongoing.
For example, from this morning to noon, Shanghai was affected by the eastward airflow outside the "Kanu" area, with most areas experiencing moderate rain and localized heavy rain. Zhuqiao in Pudong had the highest rainfall, reaching 47 millimeters. You should know that today "Kanu" is still nearly 800 kilometers away from Zhejiang, which shows its immense power.
Tomorrow, Shanghai will continue to be affected by the eastward airflow of Typhoon Kanu, and it will still be a day of blue sky, white clouds, dark clouds, and rain switching.
On the other hand, "Kanu" will continue to rely on the East China Sea and the situation is changing every day, so the possibility of landing cannot be ruled out. Based on the current path prediction, starting from the 3rd, the wind speed in the coastal areas along the Yangtze River in Shanghai will increase, with gusts reaching level 7.
Such a "strange" typhoon is not unique to this year. For example, Typhoon Rita, the third typhoon in 1972, suddenly accelerated northward after circling in the East China Sea, with a very sharp angle, and rushed to the Bohai Sea, turning west and landing in Tianjin. This was the only typhoon to make landfall in Tianjin.
The 13th typhoon of 1986, Typhoon Wayne, was positioned like a snake game. The path of "Wayne" is intricate and complex, and can even be broken down into three circles and one number "8". What's even more unique is that "Wayne" once weakened into a tropical depression on the tropical ocean surface, and then "died" again and developed into a typhoon.
