Ushering in the eighth rise of the year, domestic oil prices have taken off, and international crude oil has broken through the $80 mark | refined oil | oil prices
At 24:00 today, China's refined oil prices will experience a "four consecutive increases".
Since July, international crude oil futures prices have risen continuously from around $70 to below the $80 per barrel mark, and Brent crude oil has also reached a high of $85. Affected by this, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, starting from 24:00 on August 9th, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 240 yuan and 230 yuan per ton, respectively. Based on a typical household car fuel tank capacity of 50L, filling up a tank of 92 octane gasoline will cost an additional 9.5 yuan.
This price adjustment is the 16th adjustment of refined oil prices this year and the eighth increase within the year. After this price adjustment, this year's refined oil price adjustment has shown a pattern of "eight rises, six falls, and two stalls". According to the principle of ten working days, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 23rd.
Multiple factors on the supply and demand sides have jointly led to a bottoming out and rebound in the global crude oil market. On the supply side, the two major oil producing countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia, simultaneously announced voluntary production cuts until September, leading to a tightening of global crude oil production. At the same time, the US Energy Information Agency's crude oil inventories plummeted by 17 million barrels, marking the largest decline in history. On the demand side, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike nears its end and market risk appetite improves, it helps to rebound the price of crude oil futures denominated in US dollars. Investors are betting more on an increase in oil prices, coupled with strong global energy demand in the summer, which is conducive to an increase in crude oil prices.
Looking ahead to the future, the International Energy Agency stated in its latest report that global demand will grow to a historic high of 102 million barrels per day this year, and there will still be supply shortages for the remaining time of the year. UBS also remains optimistic about the outlook for oil prices, expecting Brent crude oil prices to reach $90 per barrel by the end of 2023. Given the production cuts and export extensions led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, UBS expects oil supply to continue to be tight in the coming weeks, with a market supply shortage of approximately 2 million barrels per day in the past two months.
