Is the hottest year in history coming?, El Ni ñ o reappears, Shanghai's 35 ℃ high temperature day will return heavily to the Northeast region | High temperature | El Ni ñ o
Compared to the previous two days, Shanghai is no longer scorching hot today, and the highest temperature in the central urban area is set at 31 ℃ today. However, according to the forecast of Shanghai center Meteorological Station, the hot days will be heavy again.
Tomorrow, the temperature in Shencheng will drift again, reaching a maximum of 34 ℃, just one step away from the high temperature line. Located on the edge of the subtropical high pressure system in Shencheng, although it is mostly cloudy to cloudy, there will still be showers or thunderstorms, with a relative humidity of 95% to 55%. The feeling is stuffy and hot, and the rain is not cool. The familiar sauna feeling has returned... This Friday, the high temperature will return directly to 35 ℃. There will be another significant rainfall around Saturday, with a slight decrease in temperature, but the body still feels hot and humid.
Starting from next Tuesday, China will enter the three dog days. The weather in Shanghai is also very timely. With the strengthening of the subtropical high pressure in the middle of next week, Shanghai will experience a series of high temperatures, with humid heat turning into sunny heat. In the afternoon, there will often be hot thunderstorms, and the hottest day of the year is slowly approaching.
Summer is approaching, and the World Meteorological Organization announced the appearance of El Ni ñ o on July 4th. Is the hottest year in history coming? The China Meteorological Administration has also provided an official response——
Whenever the surface temperature of seawater in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific rises abnormally and symptoms of fever appear, it means that El Ni ñ o has arrived.
Although born in the ocean, the impact of El Ni ñ o is global. El Nino may be the driving force behind a series of extreme weather and climate events, such as "warm winter", "hottest in history", rainstorm and flood, and even global climate anomalies. Its appearance often exacerbates the rise in global average temperature, setting multiple records for the warmest temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization predicts that with the arrival of El Ni ñ o, there will be at least one year between 2023 and 2027 to break the high temperature record set in 2016, with a probability of 98%.
However, in a specific region, the impact of El Ni ñ o may not necessarily be "hot", but may also be other impacts. Taking China as an example, the appearance of El Ni ñ o generally weakens the summer monsoon significantly, and the position of the monsoon belt is southward. Therefore, the southern region is prone to flooding, the onset of plum blossoms in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will be delayed, and precipitation in North China and other areas is relatively low and prone to drought. In summer, the temperatures in the Northeast and South regions are actually lower than usual, making it easier to experience "cool summers". In winter, the cold air activity in the North region is weaker, making it easier to experience warm winters, and haze weather may also increase.
Overall, the impact of El Ni ñ o on China's weather and climate is indirect and complex, and it is only one of the many influencing factors, so the specific situation varies each time.
Will this year surpass 2016 and become the hottest year in history? The China Meteorological Administration has stated that it is indeed likely to bring a new peak in global warming, and multiple institutions have predicted that it is highly likely to set a new global record for the warmest year in 2023 or 2024. As for whether it can really break the record, it also depends on the intensity and duration of El Ni ñ o.
Will China still be as hot as last summer this summer? The China Meteorological Administration believes that the ocean background this year is very different from last year, and El Ni ñ o will bring more rainfall to the south, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which will to some extent suppress high temperature weather.
Will there be a "warm winter" this year? In the years when El Ni ñ o occurs, China has a higher probability of experiencing warm winters. It should be noted that the standard for a warm winter is that the average temperature throughout the winter is higher than the annual average, which does not mean that there will be no cold waves or extremely cold weather.
