Data analysis shows hot issues such as economic growth rate, youth unemployment rate, and deflation. In the first half of the year, the economy experienced a "rolling" growth rate | price | economy
On July 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's economic data for the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 59303.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% at constant prices, an increase of 1.0 percentage point compared to the first quarter. From a quarterly perspective, GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year, while in the second quarter it increased by 6.3%. From a month on month perspective, GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.8%.
"Since the beginning of this year, the economic operation has gradually returned to a normal track, with a good start in the first quarter and a continued recovery trend in the second quarter. Overall, the Chinese economy has shown a rebound and improvement trend in the first half of the year." Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, described the economic operation in the first half of the year at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the same day, and responded to hot issues such as GDP growth rate, youth unemployment rate, and whether deflation occurred.
GDP growth rate of 5.5% in the first half of the year
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.5%, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 6.3%, slightly lower than market expectations. Previously, multiple market institutions predicted that the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year should be around 5.8% to 6.2%, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter should be around 6.7% to 7.0%.
One of the important reasons for the rebound in economic growth in the second quarter was the lower base in the same period last year. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 4.8%, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 0.4%. Therefore, multiple institutions have judged that under the boost of a low base, the economic growth in the second quarter may be a "high point" for the year.
Regarding this, Fu Linghui stated that overall, the economic operation in the first half of the year has gradually freed itself from the impact of the epidemic and returned to a normal growth track. The growth rate of 5.5% is significantly faster than the economic growth rate of 3% in the whole year of last year, and also faster than the average annual growth rate of 4.5% in the past three years due to the epidemic. The trend of economic growth recovery is quite obvious. "The economic growth rate of 5.5% in the first half of the year is a relatively high speed with high value.".
In the first half of the year, the consumption and service industries that were greatly affected by the epidemic in the early stage accelerated significantly, and their driving effect on economic growth increased. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 22758.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. The contribution rate of final consumer spending to economic growth exceeded 70%. Meanwhile, the added value of the service industry in the first half of the year increased by 6.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage point compared to the first quarter, and the contribution rate of service industry growth to economic growth exceeded 60%
This means that the driving force structure of China's economic development is undergoing a transformation. From the demand side, China's economic growth has shifted from being mainly driven by investment and exports last year to being mainly driven by consumption and investment this year. From the production side, economic growth has shifted from being mainly driven by industry last year to being jointly driven by the service industry and industry.
Youth employment pressure remains high
In the first half of the year, economic data showed that the average urban survey unemployment rate in China was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, and the employment scale continued to expand. In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, unchanged from the previous month. There was a significant increase in employment in industries such as wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, and transportation.
Overall, the unemployment rate of the main employment group in the first half of the year was at a relatively low level. In June, the unemployment rate of urban labor force aged 25 to 59 was 4.1%, which is lower than the level before the epidemic in 2019, and the employment situation remains stable.
But the youth unemployment rate remains high. In June, the unemployment rate of the 16-24 year old labor force survey was 21.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and 2 percentage points from the same period last year.
"The overall pressure and structural problems of current employment still exist, with difficulties in finding jobs for young people and recruitment in some industries coexisting. Continuous efforts are needed to stabilize employment." Fu Linghui said that the State Council executive meeting has made deployment requirements for employment work, and relevant departments have introduced a series of policies to promote the employment of young people such as college graduates. Various regions are also intensifying the implementation of these policies. In the next stage, as the economy continues to recover and the demand for employment continues to expand, young graduates in the graduation season will gradually enter the workforce, and the youth unemployment rate is expected to gradually decrease.
There is no deflation
In addition, prices are currently the focus of market attention. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while PPI decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. In June, CPI remained unchanged year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 5.4% year-on-year. The market is concerned that this is a sign of deflation.
Regarding this, Fu Linghui responded, "There is currently no phenomenon of deflation in the Chinese economy, and there will be no deflation in the next stage. Although prices are currently at a temporary low level, from indicators such as economic growth and money supply, China's economy does not meet the conditions for deflation."
From the perspective of prices themselves, the year-on-year increase in consumer prices in the first half of the year was 0.7%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter, mainly due to four reasons: firstly, the decline in food prices, especially pork prices; Secondly, due to the decline in international energy prices, domestic energy prices have declined; Thirdly, the price reduction and promotion by car companies have affected the increase in consumer spending among residents; Fourthly, the base for the same period last year was relatively high.
In June, the consumer prices of residents remained unchanged year-on-year, from a 0.2% increase in the previous month to remain unchanged year-on-year, which has also attracted attention from all parties. Fu Linghui stated that the low level of CPI growth is the result of multiple factors both domestically and internationally, and it is a phased process. From the perspective of demand, in the past three years, the income of residents and enterprises has been affected to some extent by the epidemic, and the recovery of corresponding market demand requires a certain amount of time. This asynchronous recovery between production and demand has to some extent caused the current low operation of CPI prices. In addition, international input factors and factors with a higher base in the same period last year have also led to a phased decline in CPI growth.
From the next stage, as China's economy recovers, market demand gradually expands, and economic circulation becomes smooth, the supply-demand relationship will gradually improve. From the perspective of food prices, the overall stability of grain production in China is conducive to ensuring the stability of food prices. The seasonal increase in demand for pork consumption in the later stage will also drive the price rebound. From the perspective of industrial consumer goods prices, the input impact of low international energy prices may continue, but the impact of short-term price reductions and promotions by car companies is expected to gradually disappear. From the perspective of service prices, the demand for services is steadily expanding, and service prices will steadily rise. In the second quarter, service prices increased by 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Taking into account the above factors, combined with the gradual elimination of high base factors in the same period last year, the price increase will gradually return to a reasonable level.
