Can the tourism market usher in "retaliatory consumption"? The first unrestricted summer vacation in over three years is approaching for parent-child | tourists | market

With the end of the 2023 college entrance examination today, the annual peak summer travel season will come one after another. Faced with the first unrestricted summer vacation in over three years, tourism industry professionals nowadays rarely mention "retaliatory consumption" and are more cautious and thoughtful.

Due to visa restrictions, incomplete resumption of flights, and inflation in multiple overseas destinations, the outbound tourism market this summer is full of variables, and domestic tourism will become even more popular.

Outbound travel traditional hot place to cool down

A few days ago, Lin Zhizhuo, the Southeast Asian regional manager of Ctrip Vacation Business Unit, went on a business trip to Thailand. On the plane from Shanghai to Bangkok, he habitually observed the occupancy rate and passenger group, and found that there were many vacant seats on the plane. The backpackers dressed as tourists were mostly young people, and the lively Chinese tourist groups that were common on this route in earlier years were almost nowhere to be seen. "The current recovery rate of Thai tourism among Chinese tourists is equivalent to 20-30% before the epidemic." Lin Zhizhuo predicts that based on current consultations and bookings, the recovery situation of the Southeast Asian market during the summer is not very optimistic.

When Thailand became one of the first pilot countries for outbound team tours in early February this year, it was once unprecedentedly popular, with expensive airfare, hotels, and high demand being the main themes at that time. However, the "Ga Waist Zi" rumors that began to ferment on social media in early March quickly cooled down the previously popular Thai travel. "At that time, the wave of cancellations for Thai routes lasted for nearly a week, causing significant losses for travel agencies." A tourism practitioner admitted that rumors not only affected the Thai tourism market, but also left destinations such as Vietnam and Cambodia with little interest.

"Many tourists prefer to believe the rumors and assume that it is not very safe to travel to Southeast Asia now." The head of an outbound travel agency listed the recovery situation of his organization's Southeast Asia region: the Vietnamese market recovered by 10%, Cambodia recovered by 5%, Sri Lanka recovered by 15%, Bali recovered by 25%... Such data is far from what was expected when the market first opened up.

The scenery of Phuket, Thailand. Mountain Eagle for map

The European direction, which was popular during the summer in previous years, has also encountered a "roadblock" due to the difficulty of visa reservations this year. In the past two months, visa appointments for France, Italy, and Switzerland have been very full, and the number of individual and team visa appointments cannot meet the demand. It is expected that this situation will continue until September.

Xu Weiwei, Vice President of Jinjiang Tourism Holdings Co., Ltd., admitted that there has been a backlog of visa demands in the European direction over the past three years. In addition to tourist visas, there are also more essential applications for study abroad and business visas. As a result, almost all embassies and consulates in many European countries are operating at an overload. "During the epidemic, the number of consulate staff has decreased, and new recruits also need to be trained before taking up their positions. The shortage of manpower and the surge in visa demand have combined, making it difficult to make visa appointments." According to the latest data from the large visa service agency, VFS Global, as of May this year, the number of Chinese citizen visa applications has only recovered to 35% of the same period before the epidemic.

In addition, destinations such as Japan, South Korea, the United States, Canada, and Australia have not yet opened up group tours, and the total number of freelance travelers traveling sporadically cannot be compared to the same period in 2019. "In the past, we usually combined Australia and New Zealand on the same route. Now, team tours in Oceania are mainly concentrated in New Zealand, and the prices are not cheap. Some tourists will adopt a wait-and-see attitude." Xu Weiwei said.

Travel Quotes Exceeds Expectations

The general increase in prices of outbound tourism is also an important reason for tourists to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Ms. Xue, a citizen who is preparing to take her daughter on a summer trip, recently browsed the websites of several tourism agencies and found that the European tour prices have greatly exceeded expectations: starting at 25999 yuan for a "classic tour of France+Switzerland+Italy on the 11th, 9 nights", and starting at 35800 yuan for a "deep experience of a train tour of Switzerland on the 11th, 9 nights"... After calculating the travel expenses for a family of three, Ms. Xue decided to switch to Japan Free Travel: "The flight is closer, at least the airfare can be cheaper."

Tourism practitioners have also intuitively felt the pressure of soaring costs for outbound travel. In March of this year, the head of the outbound department of a large travel agency in Shanghai went on a business trip to Spain and stayed in a five-star hotel in Barcelona that he had stayed in before the epidemic. He found that the hotel's facilities had not changed, but the prices had more than doubled. "Originally, one night was over 200 euros, and in March, the house price changed from 400 to 500 euros."

Such an increase in hotels is not an exception in the European market. Xu Weiwei said that from the information learned by travel agencies in recent months, almost all hotel groups in Europe have seen a significant increase in room prices, and some hotel prices have even tripled compared to before the epidemic. In addition, the prices of local tourist buses in Europe have also increased by 40% -50%. The reasons behind this are the oversupply of currencies in the United States and Europe, as well as the rise in electricity and oil prices caused by the energy crisis in Europe. Coupled with the rise of Southeast Asian outbound markets such as India, Vietnam, and Thailand, the prices of various tourism resources in popular destinations around the world have increased to varying degrees. Hotels, restaurants, tickets and other local resources generally increase by 20% or more.

In June, the Chinese market resumed operations, and European Viking Inland River Cruises welcomed the first batch of Chinese tourists after the epidemic. Respondents provide pictures

The limited resumption of flights has led to a rise in ticket prices, which has also become a common challenge for both tourism industry and tourists. Before the epidemic, the regular European team tour route was priced at around 10000 yuan, but now some round-trip tickets on European routes are close to tens of thousands of yuan. In addition to expenses such as accommodation, dining, transportation, and attractions, the prices for summer European tour routes have skyrocketed.

Tourists who choose to travel freely also face high airfare prices. Mr. Yu, who holds a ten-year Canadian visa, told reporters that he had originally planned to visit Canada with his family during the summer. After checking his flight tickets, he found that direct flights from Shanghai to Vancouver had not yet resumed, and the round-trip ticket price for connecting flights was also over 20000 yuan. He had to temporarily give up the idea. Tourism industry insiders have revealed that the average recovery rate of international flights departing from China is currently only 50% -60%, and the price increase of outbound travel tickets ranges from 40% -50%.

"The combination of rising ground transportation costs and ticket prices has led to an overall increase of 25% -30% in outbound travel this year, with even higher increases in European routes." The head of Ctrip's tourism business said that in multiple popular overseas destinations, the strong growth of the Indian market has filled the gap for Chinese tourists, and the presence of tourists from Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam can be seen everywhere in Southeast Asian countries. Compared to this, the recovery of the supply chain dedicated to receiving Chinese tourists will be basically synchronized with the recovery of outbound tourism in China, and it is expected to be fully restored by 2025.

Breeds new opportunities in the changing situation

In recent months, the tourism market has experienced many changes and challenges since COVID-19 "B Class B Management" and the pilot opening of outbound team tours. Compared to before the epidemic, the operation of outbound team tours has become more complex, and the demand of tourists has also changed rapidly with the hot topics. "On outbound travel, there is more coordination work on the airfare and visa processes, coupled with the relatively delayed registration period of guests, which poses significant risks to the operation of travel agencies. Hotels mainly face the problem of insufficient manpower, with basic aspects such as room cleaning and restaurant services being in short supply."

There are many difficulties, but a market full of survival desires has also nurtured new opportunities. As traditional popular destinations such as Southeast Asia and Europe cool down, the Middle East and Africa markets have become the "dark horse" of the outbound tourism market in the past few months. Qi Mei, General Manager of Spring and Autumn Tourism in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, told reporters that since the opening of outbound team tours in February, the reception of tourists from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates in the Spring and Autumn Tourism Middle East and Africa region has exceeded expectations. "The visas for tourists from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are very convenient, with high flight recovery rates and a friendly unit price of around 10000 to 20000 yuan, making it the first choice for many people to travel abroad."

Hu Wenyu, the regional manager of Ctrip's vacation business unit in Australia, the United States, and Africa, also confirmed this statement. "Compared to the same period in 2019, the passenger flow of our Egypt and UAE routes has both achieved a reverse trend, with the passenger flow of the Egypt route even doubling."

Colossus of Monroe in Luxor, Egypt. Wang Haiyan

In the Southeast Asian market, Lin Zhizhuo found that most of the recent tourists are under the age of 35, who are more inclined towards free travel and willing to try new gameplay. To this end, Lin Zhizhuo and colleagues are trying to launch characteristic projects on Southeast Asian routes to meet the needs of young people. For example, playing deep diving in the Maldives, experiencing sailing courses under the guidance of professional coaches, experiencing mountain ridge hiking and four-wheel motorcycle off-road vehicles in Bali, and riding local specialty long tailed boats and Tutu tricycles in Bangkok.

In Southeast Asia, some young people have also started a new way of destination "cascading" gameplay. "Some people will play in Bangkok, Thailand for 4 days, Phuket for 3 days, fly to Maldives for 3 days, and then stay in Hong Kong for a few days before returning." Lin Zhizhuo said that similar gameplay used to mainly appear in domestic games, but the number of young people playing in this way has been increasing since the beginning of this year. "This may be related to the relatively expensive airfare on current outbound routes, so it's better to visit a few more places at a time."

In response to the increasing proportion of family and child tourists in the summer market, tourism operators have also launched more products suitable for parent-child travel and added specialized customized projects to their routes. On the "Swiss Parent Child Fun Tour" route of Spring and Autumn Tourism, visiting the birthplace of the world's first milk chocolate - Maison Cailler Chocolate Factory, a Draco Dragon Hunt in the Castle of Seyon, and a light hike in the car free town of Mirren are all suitable for parent-child tourists; In the "Little Navigator Spain's 9-night adventure on the 11th", visitors can not only experience horseback riding, learn how to cook seafood rice and make Sangria soda, but also check in to the legendary "Smurf Village" and conduct scientific experiments at the Prince Felipe Art and Technology Museum.

On Ctrip's Egypt route, expert mentors will be invited to teach various themed courses for children, such as "Meeting the Pharaoh", "Meeting the Gods", "Encountering Pictographs", and Arabic language classes. Local cultural elements will also be integrated into the game in activities such as beach treasure hunting, Egyptian papyrus painting experience, and role-playing, all striving to provide more cultural content and fresh experiences for parent-child tourists.

Where else can I go on a summer trip

For tourists who have not yet decided on their travel direction, where else can they go this summer? The reporter visited several travel agency stores around People's Square the day before yesterday and found that the routes consulted by tourists were mainly domestic routes such as Hainan, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Both Spring and Autumn Travel and Ctrip store staff have stated that the registration for European travel routes for July is nearing completion, and early preparation is also needed for those traveling in August. "Due to the need for family relationship authentication and visa preparation for minors under the age of 18 traveling with their families, the registration time for parent-child family tourists needs to be further advanced."

There is still a lot of balance in the Southeast Asian direction on outbound and group tour routes, and Hong Kong and Macau in China will also be popular destinations for summer outbound tourism. Team tours to Japan and South Korea are not open, but due to the close distance, some tourists will travel freely, and ticket bookings for related routes have also increased. In addition, during the winter season from July to August in New Zealand, some ski themed routes can still be accepted for registration.

Compared to the uneven distribution of hot and cold in outbound tourism, domestic tourism during the summer season has almost completely heated up. Ms. Gao, who is currently planning a family trip, has just booked a summer trip for a family of four to Hainan and found that local hotels are expensive. Among them, the popular Atlantis hotel offers a room rate of nearly 4000 yuan, including breakfast and unlimited access to the aquarium and water world.

The Spring and Autumn Tourism Store on Jiujiang Road, Xizang Middle Road welcomed tourists for consultation.

Tibet Middle Road Ctrip travel store staff in the registration of tourist passport information. Photo by Li Baohua

Booking data from tourism agencies also shows that domestic travel bookings were initiated earlier this year than in previous years, and the rate of increase in booking volume exceeded the same period in previous years. Zhang Qi, General Manager of Ctrip's domestic business, told reporters that the first wave of popular directions for long-term registration in China currently includes Xinjiang, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, etc., and Beijing is also very popular during the summer. In recent days, the second wave of registrations has also started, with Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Enshi, Hubei and other areas experiencing the hottest registrations. There are also orders for group tours and single flight bookings. "This year, the number of small groups of 8-20 people traveling together on domestic tour routes has increased by about ten times. Currently, this type of 'private group' accounts for 30% of our total team tours."

In response to the booming summer domestic tourism market, tourism agencies have also launched distinctive products suitable for all age groups. Shen Min, Vice President of Jinjiang Tourism Holdings Co., Ltd., said that the biggest feature of tourist groups after the epidemic is the small group size, and small groups of 10-20 people have higher standards for tourist groups.

"For small groups of individual travelers, mainly middle-aged and elderly people, we have added a lot of special accommodation and catering content. For example, we have arranged special lamb and fruit meals in Xinjiang, eaten special hanging pots in Anhui, stayed at the Desert Star Hotel in Ningxia, and stayed at a small wooden house in the Hemu Scenic Area in Kanas. After the epidemic, many tourists' travel ideas have changed. Traveling is not only for sightseeing, but also for physical and mental relaxation, family and friend communication. They are also willing to experience better accommodation and catering, and team tourism products are constantly adapting to these changes.".

Faced with the social needs of young tourists during their travels, Ctrip has hired a group of experts in domestic travel routes to join the team, allowing them to lead everyone in playing board games and werewolf battles during the journey. Some routes have added elements such as travel photography, stargazing, photography, and food, allowing team tourists to have more special interpersonal interactions and new experiences outside of sightseeing. Currently, these types of routes are also popular among young people.