Will there be a qualitative change in trilateral security cooperation?, Depth | US, Japan, and South Korea leaders will meet at Camp David this week for trilateral security cooperation | Camp David | US, Japan, and South Korea summit | Biden
It is not unfamiliar for the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to be in the same frame, but this Friday's Camp David engagement is very different from before.
This will be the first time that the three heads of state have held a separate meeting outside of a multilateral setting.
It is reported that the leaders of the three countries will discuss topics such as expanding trilateral cooperation, the situation on the Korean Peninsula, and economic security, and will formulate new defense measures to "enhance collective security.".
According to external comments, the Biden administration is urging the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to hold Camp David talks, aiming to leverage the momentum of reconciliation between Japan and South Korea, promote the institutionalization of cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, so that trilateral relations can "stabilize and go far", and respond to so-called regional threats from China and North Korea. However, analysts believe that the new actions of close collusion between the United States, Japan, and South Korea may be a threat to regional peace and stability.
Frost the three sided cake with sugar
According to Japanese media reports, the trilateral dialogue held in the United States was proposed by US President Biden during this year's G7 Hiroshima Summit.
It is not difficult for leaders from the United States, Japan, and South Korea to meet in person. The annual APEC Leaders' Meeting, the East Asian Summit series, and even the recent G7 and NATO summits provide a good opportunity for the three leaders to meet.
Why does the United States have to step out of multilateral situations and hold separate group meetings with the three countries?
According to external analysis, a very important consideration is that the Biden administration hopes to seize the opportunity and leverage the diplomatic dividend of improving Japan South Korea relations to further "institutionalize, deepen, and strengthen" trilateral relations.
"The David Camp meeting will add new icing to the cake of trilateral relations that has been baking for the past year," said Daniel Snyder, lecturer in international policy and East Asian studies at Stanford University and researcher at the Korea Institute of Economic Research.
Li Yan, Director and Researcher of the Institute of World Politics at the Chinese Academy of Modern International Relations, believes that it is unprecedented for the United States, Japan, and South Korea to hold a separate summit for the first time, rather than in a multilateral setting. "This indicates that the United States has fulfilled its long-standing wish to bring Japan and South Korea together, making the trilateral mechanism of the United States, Japan, and South Korea feasible."
In Li Yan's view, promoting the development of trilateral relations through institutionalization has always been a practice pursued by the Democratic Party government, with the aim of preventing future changes in the trilateral government from leading to the downfall of previous achievements.
Liu Ming, a researcher at the International Studies Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that another important consideration for institutionalizing the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and South Korea is to cooperate with the "Okus" of the United States, Britain, and Australia, as well as the "Four Party Security Dialogue" of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, to form a composite mechanism with multiple layers of coverage and complementary functions in the Indo Pacific region, in order to achieve the goal of promoting the "Indo Pacific Strategy".
"The separate summit between the United States, Japan, and South Korea is closely related to changes in the international and regional situation," said Li Yan. Firstly, driven by strategic competition with China, the United States has forced significant changes in Sino US relations. Secondly, security issues in regions such as the Korean Peninsula have overwhelmed the conflict between Japan and South Korea. Once again, the current attitude of the Japanese and South Korean governments towards China is consistent with that of the United States. These factors constitute an important background for the first separate meeting of the three heads of state.
As for the choice of timing and location for the meeting, there are also considerable considerations.
In terms of timing, "the United States believes that it is natural for the three countries to hold a separate summit now." Liu Ming said that since Biden took office, the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea have met several times in multilateral venues such as the G7 and NATO summits, and the United States, Japan, and the United States and South Korea have also held their own summit meetings. A more crucial factor is that the relationship between Japan and South Korea has broken the ice by resolving the issue of labor compensation during World War II, and the two leaders have resumed shuttle diplomacy.
From the perspective of location, "choosing Camp David as the meeting venue demonstrates the special treatment that the United States has given to its allies in Japan and South Korea," said Liu Ming.
Firstly, this place has been an important venue for talks in history, hosting foreign dignitaries and witnessing major diplomatic moments. For example, there have been peace talks between leaders of Egypt, Israel, and Palestine.
Secondly, compared to the White House, Camp David is a presidential resort with a more relaxed atmosphere and stronger privacy, which can showcase the trust relationship between leaders and facilitate discussions on a wide range of issues, especially long-term strategic visions.
According to the Associated Press, this is Biden's first time receiving foreign leaders at Camp David during his tenure. US officials have revealed that Biden plans to take a walk in the courtyard of Camp David with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol, and will have lunch with the two leaders. The three leaders may adopt a casual style, wearing shirts and no ties.
Although Biden will have one-on-one conversations with Kishida and Yoon Seok yeol respectively, the three leaders will spend most of their time together and attend a joint press conference after the meeting.
Towards a trilateral security alliance?
Regarding the Camp David meeting, the White House previously stated that the three sides will discuss expanding trilateral cooperation in the Indo Pacific region, including strengthening ties with ASEAN and Pacific islands, as well as addressing the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
According to Reuters, US officials say that leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea will launch a series of joint initiatives in the fields of technology, education, and defense to develop new defense steps.
This includes establishing a tripartite hotline for communication during times of crisis.
Agree to hold annual joint military exercises across three different branches of the military. According to officials familiar with the relevant plans, the annual military exercise will integrate the radar, satellite, and weapon systems used by the United States, Japan, and South Korea in real-time, and train on how to track and destroy ballistic missiles.
Anti missile cooperation. Reuters reported that the three parties will promote cooperation in areas such as ballistic missile defense technology.
According to Japanese media reports, the United States and Japan may reach an agreement on jointly developing hypersonic weapon interceptors during the Camp David meeting.
The three countries will also strengthen cooperation in cybersecurity.
It is worth noting that the joint statement issued after the meeting may also include wording similar to NATO Article 5 "Collective Defense Clause": "A threat to one country is a threat to all countries", indicating that the security of the three countries is interrelated. The US Ambassador to Japan, Emmanuel, described it as the "Camp David principle.".
Snyder commented that this meeting will demonstrate the efforts of the Biden administration to institutionalize security cooperation among the three countries, which is to bind the three countries into a pseudo alliance based on intelligence sharing, missile defense, cybersecurity, and strengthening nuclear deterrence.
Li Yan said that if it is indeed reported by foreign media, various signs indicate that there has been a substantial change in the trilateral security cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, moving towards deep development.
Firstly, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have formed a sub level dialogue mechanism consisting of foreign ministers, defense ministers, and national security advisors, which will now be elevated to the highest level dialogue mechanism held annually at the summit level.
Secondly, it was originally close cooperation between the United States, Japan, and the United States and South Korea, with limited security cooperation between Japan and South Korea, but now it is attempting to integrate trilateral resources and forces.
Thirdly, the three countries intend to cooperate in highly sensitive areas related to national security, such as hypersonic weapon interception, anti missile technology, and cybersecurity.
Li Yan also pointed out that if the joint statement really has the so-called "Camp David principle", it will mean that the NATO model will emerge in the Asia Pacific region.
In Liu Ming's view, the United States hopes that the trilateral mechanism can develop towards a higher level of institutionalization and become a regional political and security organization. Through a series of operations, it can be said that the first step has been taken. However, from the current perspective, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have not yet been positioned as a collective defense organization similar to NATO. As US officials have said, it is unlikely that a formal security defense arrangement will be reached at this summit.
"The establishment of a trilateral defense mechanism between the United States, Japan, and South Korea poses political and legal obstacles, making it very difficult."
In terms of politics, although the relationship between Japan and South Korea has significantly improved, it is not a complete improvement. The cooperation between the two sides on security issues is more temporary, mainly based on the wishes of the current rulers. Once the government changes, whether it can continue for a long time is unknown.
Meanwhile, due to the historical shadow of being colonized by Japan, there are concerns within South Korea about building a trilateral defense organization between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. For example, once something happens on the Korean Peninsula, Koreans do not want to see the Japanese Self Defense Forces enter the peninsula.
Legally, the Japanese Peace Constitution prohibits Japan from participating in war and can only be limited to logistical assistance. Japanese officials also pointed out that the US Japan Security Treaty does not allow the establishment of trilateral collective defense.
"The closeness and distance of trilateral security cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea will be a significant variable for South Korea," said Li Yan.
On the one hand, whether South Korea's attitude towards China will change due to government changes will affect whether the trilateral dialogue between the United States, Japan, and South Korea can be substantially maintained.
On the other hand, if there is a change in the situation on the Korean Peninsula, it is also a question whether South Korea can withstand the change.
The US side is also aware of this. "Requesting the United States, Japan, and South Korea to establish a tripartite security framework is too far fetched," a US official told Reuters.
"Countries around the world are all tense"
The three countries have made their first "single treaty", sought institutionalized arrangements, prepared to launch new defensive steps, and may also issue a joint statement emphasizing "collective security". In the view of the two scholars, the series of actions by the United States, Japan, and South Korea will have multiple profound impacts on the regional political, economic, and security situation.
Firstly, the strategic competition between the United States and China will be amplified, and it will threaten the relations between China, Japan, and South Korea, creating more obstacles for trilateral cooperation between China, Japan, and South Korea.
Secondly, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will become even more dangerous. After the United States, Japan, and South Korea intensify military coordination and linkage, the risk of misjudgment, sporadic incidents, and even major events may increase in the future.
Thirdly, in the past, cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea was more focused on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Fourthly, Japan and South Korea may follow the strategic deployment of the United States to "focus on decoupling" or "de risk". In terms of regional supply chain and key technologies, follow the United States to restrict exports and investment in China.
It is reported that the joint statement will include strengthening the security of important material supply chains such as semiconductors.
Fifthly, whether the strengthening of mechanisms by the United States, Japan, and South Korea will lead to regional imitations and the emergence of other small multilateral mechanisms, such as new circles centered around the United States and the Philippines, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, is also worth observing.
"A group photo of leaders from South Korea, the United States, and Japan, causing tension among countries around the world," said a "core stakeholder" in the South Korean presidential office, commenting on the trilateral summit. Faced with such an uneasy situation, it seems that not only do we feel nervous, but we also need to be vigilant.
