Where is Wagner going?, Depth | Russia officially confirms the death of Prigorn in the plane crash | Wagner's whereabouts | Prigorn's death in the plane crash | Russia confirms

The Russian Federal Investigation Commission announced on the 27th local time that after genetic analysis, it has been confirmed that the founder of the Russian private military contractor Wagner Group, Prigoren, died in a plane crash on the 23rd.

At this point, the question of whether Prigoren had "escaped from his shell" has basically been eliminated, but questions about the cause of the incident and Wagner's fate still linger in people's minds.

Meanwhile, a series of follow-up events over the past few days have also drawn attention - Russian President Putin has signed a presidential decree requiring relevant personnel, including members of Wagner, to swear allegiance; Ukraine is launching a joint special operations operation against the Crimean Russian military... What other impacts will the plane crash have?

The possibility of playing games has been ruled out

The Russian Federal Investigation Commission stated on the 27th that molecular genetic analysis work in the investigation of the plane crash has been completed, and the identities of the victims have been fully confirmed, which is consistent with the list of 10 people published by the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency, including Prigoren.

On the 23rd, an Embraer manufactured Legacy 600 aircraft experienced an emergency on its way from Moscow to St. Petersburg and crashed in the Tver Oblast of western Russia. No one on board survived.

The passenger list includes multiple senior Wagner personnel and three crew members. In addition to Prigo, his two deputies - Wagner's other founder Utkin and security officer Chekalov - also boarded the same plane.

The plane crash incident caused a thousand waves. The timing of the incident and various details made everything appear hazy.

In terms of timing, since the Wagner incident in June this year, the political rift between Prigoren and the Russian authorities seems to have been bridged. This mercenary group leader, known as the "Putin Chef," has frequently appeared in Russia recently and appeared at events such as the Russia Africa Summit in July. Just before the plane crash, he had just released his first video after the Wagner incident, stating in a suspected African region that he wanted to make Russia greater.

However, at this moment, Prigoren's life suddenly came to an end, which is truly regrettable.

From the details, whether it is the "ups and downs" of the plane before the crash, the faint "bullet marks" on scattered components, or the "two suspected explosions" in the video footage, all have sparked various speculations such as "shot down theory" and "bomb theory". In addition, Prigoren has been "killed" more than once, and "the golden cicada has peeled off its shell" is also within the scope of speculation from the outside world.

Now, with the completion of molecular genetic investigations, at least the possibility of "doing a job" has been basically ruled out.

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian East European and Central Asian Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that as a mercenary leader, Prigoren holds multiple passports, is skilled in disguise, and has made many security preparations. In 2019, an An-72 military transport plane crashed in Africa, and Prigoren was also listed on the passenger list. It was later proven that he was not on the plane.

"Now, the Russian investigative committee has confirmed through scientific means that Prigorn was killed, which can be said to be a conclusive conclusion about his death, demonstrating the cautious attitude of the Russian authorities." Zhang Hong said.

Chen Yu, Assistant Director of the Eurasian Institute of the Chinese Academy of Modern International Relations, believes that although there have been speculations about whether Prigoren really died, based on his observation, the possibility of a "situation" is not very high because there is no motivation or necessity to implement such complex operations.

The West wants to amplify contradictions

While Prigoren's body has been confirmed, the outside world is still questioning: what exactly caused the incident? What will Wagner's fate be like?

It is reported that Russian investigators have recently announced that they have found the black box of the crashed plane and obtained "important documents for determining the crash situation, and all possibilities will be thoroughly investigated.". Zhang Hong said that the conclusion of the investigation is yet to be announced, but in his view, the probability of the plane crash being an accident is very low and it is more likely to be caused by human factors.

Chen Yu believes that the Russian authorities are currently leading the investigation. In addition, according to international practice, Brazil, as an aircraft manufacturer, may also participate in the investigation. But there may not be a clear conclusion in the end, just like the North Stream pipeline leak and the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, it is difficult to find the mastermind behind the incident.

Two analysts also pointed out that the fundamental starting point of the recent Western hype is to amplify internal conflicts in Russia.

Zhang Hong said that the United States and Western countries generally adopt a hostile attitude towards Russia, pointing various doubts at Russia before the investigation results are released, which is a common political and diplomatic operation.

Chen Yu believes that the West intends to highlight the so-called "decline in the control ability of the Russian authorities" by exaggerating the situation, which will affect the stability of the Russian political situation. In this way, it can further encourage the Western internal support for Ukraine and continue to argue.

"But it can be observed that after the incident, Putin's ability to control the situation was guaranteed, and different voices within Russia were also controlled." Chen Yu said, "The attempt of the West to create division within Russia should be said to be very difficult to succeed."

Zhang Hong also believes that after the Wagner incident broke out in June, the Russian government has stabilized its position. What poses a real threat to the Russian authorities now is not Wagner, but whether Russia's economic and social conditions can stabilize, whether people's lives will deteriorate due to the Ukrainian crisis, and whether support for Putin will change. At present, it seems that the fundamentals of the Russian economy are relatively stable, and the possibility of a sharp deterioration is not very high.

What is Wagner's fate

When it comes to Wagner's future direction, two analysts also gave their opinions.

Zhang Hong believes that Wagner's business in Africa will continue. Russia has interests in Central Africa, Burundi, Sudan and other places and needs Wagner's help. Wagner is expected to eventually not stay in Belarus, mainly for rest and transition. "The White side won't need so many troops, and secondly, the funding is limited."

As for whether Wagner can be active on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, Zhang Hong believes there needs to be a question mark. "Whether Wagner can return to the battlefield depends on two factors: firstly, whether Wagner, without Prigorn, can maintain mobility and combat effectiveness; secondly, whether it can re-establish stable cooperation with the Russian government."

Chen Yu believes that Wagner's fate underwent a huge change after the events in June: some soldiers went to Belarus, some went home for vacation, and some signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense to be included. In the past two months, there has been almost no presence of Wagner on the Ukrainian battlefield, and his focus has shifted to Africa, the Middle East, and other regions.

After the plane crash, there were new changes in the situation: firstly, several senior leaders of Wagner went bankrupt; Secondly, there are reports that the Russian government intends to establish a new organization to take over Wagner's overseas operations. "If, on the one hand, there is no leader, and on the other hand, Africa's business cannot be guaranteed, then Wagner may really come to a critical moment of survival."

Chen Yu believes that Wagner may show a weakening trend in the future, and it is not ruled out that the organization will completely lose its independence and be incorporated by the Ministry of Defense. Wagner may also be replaced by institutions that are more pro government and easier to control.

The outside world has also noticed that after the plane crash, Russian President Putin has signed a presidential decree requiring relevant personnel, including members of Wagner, to swear allegiance.

"After the Wagner incident, there may be a shift in the thinking of the Russian authorities, which is to ensure that the loyalty of private military groups comes first, and then discuss how much role they can play." Chen Yu said, "Putin's signing of a presidential decree is consistent with the above ideas, and it is necessary to strengthen control over private military groups."

Zhang Hong also believes that this is a mandatory law for Russia to seek political stability and security. "Because Russia has over thirty private military groups, it is necessary to first ensure loyalty to the country."

"White Hair" and "Lotus"

In addition, the issue of Prigo's successor related to Wagner's fate is also a focus of external attention.

Zhang Hong said that there have been widespread speculations from the outside that Wagner member Trochev, codenamed "White Hair," may take over. "White haired" was once named by Putin, and he did not participate in the Wagner incident. The Russian government seems to be inclined to let "white haired" lead Wagner.

"But recently, there have been reports that Yelizarov, a Wagner member codenamed 'Lotus', has been recognized by the Wagner Commander's Committee. He seems to have a higher chance of becoming one of Wagner's future leaders." Zhang Hong said, "Compared to Troshev's government recognition, Yelizarov went to Belarus with Prigoren after the Wagner incident."

Is it possible for the emergence of the "lotus" to trigger a new conflict between Wagner and the Russian authorities? Zhang Hong said that although the leaders elected by the Wagner Commander's Committee represent the interests of the group itself, the leaders of the mercenary company still need to communicate and coordinate with the Russian authorities when operating.

Limited impact on the battlefield

The impact of the plane crash on the Russia Ukraine conflict is also touching.

All parties have noticed that the day after the incident, Ukraine launched a joint special operations operation against the Crimean Russian army, while the Russian side launched an attack on the Ukrainian command and decision-making center using long-range precision guided weapons.

Chen Yu believes that the direct impact of the plane crash on the battlefield is relatively limited. After Wagner captured Bachmut, most of the personnel began to take turns. After the June mutiny, Wagner basically withdrew from the battlefield. However, it cannot be ruled out that the plane crash incident will affect the morale of the Russian military, as there is still a part of the Russian military that sympathizes with Wagner's forces.

Chen Yu judged that there is not much room for Ukraine to take advantage of the Russian plane crash and seize the opportunity to rob Russia. After the Wagner incident in June, Ukraine did not take advantage of the chaos to stir up trouble. Because Russia is ultimately a nuclear power, the intensification of external forces may cause uncontrollable geopolitical risks, and Ukraine's adventure will also be constrained by the United States and the West.

Zhang Hong pointed out that currently Ukraine's counterattack has encountered great resistance and has been unable to achieve a major breakthrough on the southern front. And Wagner's relationship with the Russian government is also within a controllable range. The key to the war still lies in the strength comparison between Russia and Ukraine. Whoever can surpass the other in comprehensive strength will be able to withstand this prolonged and attrition war. Therefore, the direct impact of the Wagner incident and plane crash on the war is decreasing.