What signal is being released?, The joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea will undergo a comprehensive adjustment, with a deeper depth. After the renaming, it will once again make a comeback to the situation on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea, the "Shield of Freedom" of the Second Branch, and the annual joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States will be conducted

Today, the annual joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States, known as the "Shield of Freedom", kicked off. The exercise will last for 11 days until the end of this month.

This is the second exercise after the renaming of the annual military exercise, aimed at strengthening the joint defense and response capabilities of South Korea and the United States to respond to North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats.

On the day of the exercise, North Korea also released a message stating that its top leader, Kim Jong un, inspected the navy and observed strategic cruise missile launch training. This move is seen as a response to South Korea US military exercises.

Analysts point out that the Camp David meeting has just come to an end, and South Korea and the United States are engaged in a major conflict on the peninsula. Moreover, this exercise is more offensive, provocative, and targeted, which is bound to trigger a strong reaction from North Korea. The alternating signs of strength from both sides will push the already tense situation on the Korean Peninsula into a more unpredictable realm.

Comprehensively adjust the exercise content

Last August, after a five-year hiatus, South Korea and the United States resumed routine military exercises typically held in the second half of the year, and changed the original name of "Yi Zhi Freedom Defender" to "Yi Zhi Freedom Shield".

This year is the second joint performance after a facelift.

South Korea claims that this exercise is the largest in history. Both sides will mobilize tens of thousands of soldiers and multiple member countries of the United Nations Command to participate in the exercise. Strategic weapons such as B-1B strategic bombers may also be deployed.

Compared to previous years, this year's "Yizhi Freedom Shield" exercise has seen some notable changes.

According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea and the United States will comprehensively adjust the exercise content from this exercise onwards.

In short, it may be summarized as "adjusting the focus, two firsts, and one expansion".

Let's first focus on adjusting the key points.

Previously, the "Yizhi Freedom Shield" exercise was carried out in the order of "countering local provocations by North Korea and launching a full-scale war". This year, the focus of the exercise will be on how to quickly transition from a peacetime state to a wartime state.

The South Korean side said that this adjustment was to cope with the further escalation of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities and changes in the security situation, and learned the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Let's take a look at two more firsts.

A "first" refers to the first time the US domestic space force will participate in a military exercise.

According to South Korean media reports, in addition to the Armed Forces and Marine Corps, the US mainland and the space forces stationed in South Korea will participate in the exercise and test their comprehensive response capabilities in the hypothetical scenario of North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles threatening the US mainland.

The US military stationed in South Korea stated that the space force will carry out various combat operations in areas such as space, ground, networks, and cognition.

Another "first time" refers to the first simulated attack on North Korea during wartime or when false information is spread.

An expansion refers to expanding the implementation of field mobility training.

Due to the easing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea US relations, South Korea and the US have reduced the scale of joint field mobile training since 2019.

After the resumption of military exercises in August last year, although large-scale field mobile exercises were resumed, only 11 subjects were practiced.

This year, the number of training subjects has increased to over 30, far exceeding previous years, and the scale is the largest in recent years.

Specifically, this exercise will implement 13 types of mobile training, including scientific warfare at the brigade level, and 25 types of training, including the "Double Dragon" joint landing exercise at the division level.

Both sides will officially name the joint field mobility training as "Soldier Shield Field Mobility Training".

More provocative and targeted

Analysts point out that both expanding the scale and adjusting the content reflect that this exercise is more offensive, provocative, and targeted.

Professor and Dean of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University, Lv Chao, introduced that joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea can be divided into three forms. The first type is pure computer simulation, without field training forms. This form was adopted when the relationship between North and South Korea was relatively relaxed compared to before. The second approach is to combine computer simulation with field training, with the former being the main approach and the latter as a supplement. The third type is mainly based on field exercises, supplemented by computer simulation exercises. This "Yizhi Freedom Shield" military exercise belongs to the third category.

"From the first participation of the space army to the expansion of field exercises, it indicates that the joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States have further upgraded, and the military interaction between the two sides has further expanded." Lv Chao said that the joint military exercises have changed from the past so-called defense oriented to more offensive, and may even turn to South Korea's repeatedly claimed preemptive mode, making them more provocative.

Military expert Wang Qiang believes that this military exercise is more targeted.

"From displaying equipment during the military parade to conducting a series of weapon tests, it can be seen that North Korea has made significant progress in its military development. The United States and South Korea are concerned that the military balance, which was originally inclined towards the United States and South Korea, is beginning to sway. The two countries are attempting to consolidate and enhance their ability to respond to the crisis on the Korean Peninsula through this joint exercise." Wang Qiang said.

For example, the first deployment of the US domestic space force is clearly aimed at North Korea's test launch of intercontinental missiles and the potential threat of attacking the US mainland.

Wang Qiang also noticed that the term "total war" has reappeared in this year's exercises.

Since the implementation of the "National Total War" concept in theater level exercises last year, South Korea has emphasized that this year's "Yizhi Freedom Shield" joint military exercise aims to enhance the joint response capability of the South Korean US alliance and enhance the ability to win a comprehensive war.

Wang Qiang pointed out that the adjustment of the focus of the so-called "winning a full-scale war" and "rapid transition from peacetime to wartime" exercises reflects the readiness posture of the US and South Korean armies.

For example, expanding the scale of field mobility training has a stronger practical significance.

"This means that the South Korean and American armies will test all combat units' combat capabilities and expand their implementation scale, with the aim of making more solid preparations for combat and improving combat capabilities."

On the other hand, emphasizing "winning a full-scale war" also exposes the intention of the United States and South Korea to magnify the crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

Wang Qiang pointed out that while military exercises may seem to be aimed at sudden developments on the peninsula, they are actually preparing for potential major power conflicts in the region. For example, the deployment of the US space army to participate in the exercise not only addresses the North Korean missile threat, but also serves the US military's future space operations with major powers in Northeast Asia. In fact, North Korea has limited space combat capabilities, while the United States' main strategic opponent in the region has space countermeasures capabilities.

Chao claimed to respond "overwhelmingly"

On the first day of military training between South Korea and the United States, the Korean Central News Agency reported a news that attracted high attention.

According to reports, Kim Jong un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Council, inspected the surface ship units under the East China Sea Fleet of the Korean People's Army Navy, learned about combat readiness and other situations, and observed strategic cruise missile launch training.

The warship that launches strategic cruise missiles is considered a new type of stealth frigate for the North Korean Navy.

The North Korean report has caused anxiety in Japan and South Korea. The Japan Broadcasting Association stated that the report did not mention the specific time of Kim Jong un's inspection. The release of this news at this time is intended to counter the large-scale military exercises between the United States and South Korea that began on August 21st.

From past practices and recent signs, it can be seen that in response to the US South Korea joint exercise, North Korea's "tooth for tooth" approach is undoubtedly the right answer.

Previously, Pyongyang had condemned the exercise as a war rehearsal and repeatedly warned of an "overwhelming" response.

South Korea expects that North Korea may conduct more weapon tests, including launching intercontinental ballistic missiles or testing reconnaissance satellites again. North Korea's first test launch in May ended in failure.

Lv Chao believes that this joint exercise between the United States and South Korea, both in terms of scale and content, is more stimulating and provocative. Given North Korea's repeated claims of strength against strength, it is expected that it will respond more strongly to this military exercise.

Is the situation on the peninsula more difficult to predict?

Whenever a joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea takes place, it not only stimulates North Korea's nerves but also triggers a regional security alert.

It is worth noting that this military exercise was held in multiple contexts.

One background is shortly after the Camp David meeting. The United States, Japan, and South Korea plan to regularly hold trilateral exercises to enhance coordination and cooperation. The three countries also plan to achieve real-time sharing of missile warning data by the end of 2023.

Another background is that North Korea has issued a rare nuclear war warning. Recently, North Korean Defense Minister Chun Man stated that since the beginning of this year, the United States has deployed a large amount of nuclear equipment in South Korea, pushing the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the brink of nuclear war.

Paradoxically, as the situation tightens, the United States suddenly reveals that President Biden is willing to "unconditionally" meet with Kim Jong un to discuss the issue of denuclearization of the peninsula.

Where will these latest developments, combined with the strong smell of gunpowder from military exercises, push the fuel filled peninsula towards?

Lv Chao pointed out that with the escalation of military provocation by the United States and South Korea, North Korea is also bound to escalate countermeasures, and this alternating escalation will significantly increase the probability of friction between the two sides. The situation on the peninsula is likely to become even more tense and unpredictable.

"North and South Korean officials now believe that the relationship between the two sides is at its most tense state in the 70 year ceasefire of the Korean War, which is not an exaggeration," said Lu Chao.

Several dangerous signals have already emerged: one is that the North and South sides have completely ceased contact, unlike in previous years when there were dialogue channels or military hotlines, which could enable both sides to solve problems through dialogue and communication. Secondly, the military threats from the United States and South Korea are increasingly pressing, especially the military security cooperation reached between the United States, Japan, and South Korea at the Camp David meeting, which further fueled the tense situation. Three times, North Korea has taken a stance of being on the alert, publicly stating that it has strengthened its military readiness and even issued a warning of nuclear war, making such a strong statement unprecedented.

Wang Qiang believes that in the long run, the evolution of the situation on the Korean Peninsula will depend on how the United States views the role of the Korean Peninsula on the East Asian chessboard.

Some South Korean media have pointed out that large-scale joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States are like a dose of poison, not only ineffective in promoting dialogue and consultation to peacefully resolve the Korean Peninsula issue, but also harmful to regional security.

Both analysts noticed that this military exercise between the US and South Korea was actually related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In response, Wang Qiang commented that amplifying the spillover effect of the Ukrainian crisis, using the opportunity to hype up security issues on the peninsula and the so-called North Korean military threat, thereby stimulating North Korea and intensifying the situation, can provide an excuse for the United States to deploy more strategic assets on the peninsula and expand military power for Japan and South Korea.

"The continuous provocation by the United States and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula issue will exacerbate tensions in Northeast Asia and pose a great threat to regional peace and stability," said Lu Chao.

As for Biden's call to Kim Jong un across the air and proposal for an unconditional meeting, in the eyes of analysts, it is a common tactic used by the United States to use both soft and hard tactics.

"On the one hand, it is strengthening and extending deterrence, continuously deploying strategic bombers, aircraft carriers, and strategic nuclear submarines on the peninsula, while also imposing sanctions on North Korea. On the other hand, it is proposing unconditional meetings, demonstrating that the United States has no sincerity in dialogue. It is nothing more than a posture to occupy the high ground of public opinion and to solve the problem of US soldiers being detained by North Korea across the border." Lu Chao said.

Lv Chao emphasized that the only effective way to resolve the tension on the Korean Peninsula, especially to ease the confrontation between the United States and North Korea, is through sincere dialogue. However, the US's comprehensive pressure on North Korea is unilaterally creating tension. If the situation on the peninsula changes, the responsibility should be borne by the United States.