What signal is being released?, Russian officials claim that Putin met with Prigorn Prigorn after the Wagner incident
After the Wagner incident in Russia, just as the outside world believed that this mercenary organization would be "purged and liquidated" and its power was feared to be restricted, a new news released by the Russian government seemed to cause a "reversal" of the plot, and also made the fate of Wagner and its founder, Prigoren, once again a mystery.
On July 10th, Russian President Peskov stated that on June 29th, Russian President Putin met with 35 people in the Kremlin, including Prime Minister Prygo and members of the Wagner leadership, and provided several options for the future direction of Wagner members.
Many public opinion interpret this signal as: Putin is not in a hurry to impose severe punishment on Prigoren, the Wagner leader and his troops still play an important role in Russia's security and politics. But some scholars also believe that, given the occurrence of the Wagner incident and the difficulty for Prigoren to regain Putin's favor, people should not be blindly optimistic about the so-called "Wagner benefits", but should wait and see the situation develop.
Bad news for the West
According to Peskov, Putin's meeting with Prigoren and members of the leadership of the Wagner organization lasted for nearly 3 hours. Putin evaluated Wagner's performance during the special military operation against Ukraine and also evaluated Wagner's alleged incitement to rebellion on June 24th. Putin listened to Wagner commanders' explanations of the incident and provided them with several options such as employment and combat.
During the meeting, Wagner commanders stated that they are staunch supporters of the head of state and supreme commander of the armed forces, "ready to continue fighting for their homeland.".
Peskov did not disclose whether the military participated in the meeting and emphasized that he does not have any information on Prigoren's current whereabouts.
The outside world has noticed that prior to Peskov's release of this news, the French newspaper Liberation quoted Western intelligence sources stating that Putin had met with Prigorn in Moscow a few days after the Wagner incident. The Commander in Chief of the Russian National Guard, Zolotov, and the Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency, Nareshkin, also attended the meeting.
According to Russian legislator Konstantin Dolgov, the meeting on June 29th highlighted Putin's absolute control over the situation and his leading role in the country's military architecture, as quoted by Russia's Lianta.com. "This also indicates that our society is stable, united by the President, and will not support any attempt to destabilize the situation or go beyond the Constitution."
Russian political scholar Klinetzevich told Russian media life.ru that the release of the meeting news is crucial because the Western "highest agenda" is to hope for a rebellion within Russia, and even if the rebellion fails, it will at least lead to the disintegration of the once powerful mercenary organization. But nothing happened. "So this meeting is bad news for the West, but good news for us."
Klinszevich emphasized that Putin not only met with Prigorn, but also with Commander Wagner - this ensures that every soldier of the organization can hear the dialogue. Klinszevich speculated that during the meeting, there may have been discussions on key issues such as military supply, as well as how to prevent the recurrence of "rebellion" incidents.
Russian Dzen News Network quoted military expert Boris Loren as saying that this meeting is not surprising. Legally speaking, Prigoren is no longer a rebel because the criminal case regarding the rebellion has been closed. From a political perspective, the impact of the meeting is also positive, as Putin needs to minimize the negative effects of the Wagner incident and minimize losses.
The New York Times believes that the meeting seems to reflect a Kremlin's consideration of avoiding the complete elimination of an experienced and heavily supported combat force in a costly war. Some analysts say that Putin may also believe that the Wagner incident was just a factional struggle out of control.
Returning to the Ukrainian battlefield in August?
The New York Times believes that the new news has also left more unsolved mysteries about the fate of Prigoren and Wagner.
Last week, the tracking of Prigoren's private plane showed that he freely entered and exited Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other places. Local media reported seeing Prigoren in different locations within Russia.
"Prigorn has returned: Why was Wagner given a second chance?" The Moscow Communist Youth League newspaper wrote, "Behind Putin's unexpected but very pragmatic decision, people are trying to find motivation."
Russian television station "tsargrad" quoted political analyst Sergei Markolov as saying that three main conclusions can be drawn from this meeting: first, Putin's unique style of action determines that many things are never known to the public. Secondly, the meeting indicates a completely informal connection between Putin and Prime Minister Prigo. Thirdly, perhaps only 20% of the public information about the relationship between Putin and Prigoren is known. But what can be certain is that based on their relationship, Prigoren is carrying out certain tasks, including leading Wagner, activities in Africa, and commercial projects.
Belarusian President Lukashenko also expressed last week that Putin's sympathy for Prime Minister Prigo may be greater than what Putin has shown in public statements. "Their relationship is very good... Speaking to the world is one thing, but their inner feelings are completely different."
Political consulting firm R Politik founder Tatiana Stanovaya told The New York Times that the Kremlin's decision to disclose the meeting may be to appease Russian elites who are still confused about what happened - they do not know whether Prigoren is a traitor or their own.
"Now it seems that although Prigoren made serious mistakes, given the very special situation at present, Putin will give him a chance to survive," Stanovaya said, and Prigoren's "rebellion" was not seen as targeting Putin himself.
As for the fate of Wagner, Boris Rogen believes that it has been proven that Russia still relies on Wagner in some aspects of special military operations, and the sudden destruction of Wagner will cause damage to the country when it faces severe external challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to devise temporary measures, such as gently restructuring Wagner's organizational structure and allowing only Prigo to retain the commercial part.
When it comes to Wagner's whereabouts, Russian military expert and retired Colonel Matvychuk told Russia's "Newspaper Network" that going to Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions in Ukraine and advancing towards Sumy and Poltava Oblast may become a new task for Wagner personnel transferred to Belarus.
Matvechuk said that Prigorn had previously stated that Wagner fighters would enter full combat readiness through restructuring and personnel replenishment as early as August 5th. "Therefore, it is not ruled out that these people will appear in Sumy in the future, nor is it ruled out that Prime Minister Prigo may sit down and sign a new military operation contract."
The Guardian and The New York Times pointed out that there are still thousands of Wagner armed personnel stationed in eastern Ukraine. Wagner Commander Anton Yelizarov revealed that all Wagner soldiers will rest until early August. Wagner will temporarily stay in Ukraine to prepare for an exit from Belarus. At the same time, there are indications that Wagner's deployment in Africa and its extensive business network are also as usual, unaffected by the Wagner incident.
However, at the same time, some analysts believe that the release of new news does not necessarily mark Wagner's "return", re recognition and acceptance by the system.
Alexander Gabyev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasian Center, said that it is difficult for Prigoren to regain Putin's favor because "it will not be treated as if everything has never happened.". Even if Wagner avoids being liquidated, he may not be able to escape restructuring. Boris Loren believes that people should not be blindly optimistic about the so-called "Wagner's goodness", but should wait and see the situation unfold.
