What kind of 2024 will Trump face?, Depth | Accused charges increased to 91 in the US election | Accused charges increased to 91 | Trump

Release time:Apr 14, 2024 22:29 PM

On August 14th local time, former Republican President Donald Trump was charged with 13 felonies in Georgia on suspicion of overturning the 2020 presidential election results. This is the fourth time Trump has been criminally charged this year.

Analysis suggests that against the backdrop of the 2024 US presidential election, Trump's consecutive criminal charges reflect both his own stain and the political motivation of the Democratic Party to crack down on opponents.

As Trump's popularity remains high within the Republican Party, it is not ruled out that he will face more accusations. These legal disputes may not come to an end until the second half of next year.

Four criminal charges

In the November 2020 US presidential election, Trump lost to Democratic presidential candidate Joseph Biden in Georgia by less than 12000 votes.

There is evidence to suggest that on January 2, 2021, Trump called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Laffensberg, stating that he wanted to "find" enough votes to overturn his defeat in Georgia. It was this phone call that opened up Fanny Willis, a regional prosecutor in Fulton County, Georgia, an investigation into Trump's popularity among his allies for over two years.

Recently, the results of this survey finally came to light. A grand jury in Georgia agreed on the 14th to prosecute Trump on 13 counts of serious crimes, accusing the former president of violating the Anti ransomment and Bribery Organization Act and breaking public office oaths.

This 98 page indictment states that the defendant refused to accept Trump's defeat and knowingly and intentionally conspired to illegally change the election results in favor of Trump.

In addition to Trump, 18 close friends who served as his personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, also became defendants, with a total of 19 defendants charged with 41 charges.

The indictment also shows that the scope of the investigation in this case has crossed states, with Giuliani and Meadows accused of spreading conspiracy theories to officials in Arizona and Pennsylvania, seeking to tamper with the election results in these states.

Reuters reported that all defendants are suspected of the crime of extortion, which is commonly used to charge organized criminals and can be sentenced to up to 20 years in prison.

Prosecutor Willis stated on the 14th that he intends to have 19 defendants on trial together, requiring all defendants to surrender before noon on the 25th of this month, and intends to suggest a date for the trial of this case to the judge within 6 months.

According to Agence France Presse, the Georgia court is relatively open and it is expected that the case will be broadcasted on television nationwide from the pre-trial stage, which means Trump may become the first former president in US history to be tried and broadcasted.

Distinctive Party Struggle Colors

This is the fourth time Trump has been criminally charged this year, and also the second time he has been charged with suspicion of interfering in the 2020 election since stepping down. The Associated Press reported that Trump's latest charges in Georgia may be the most widespread so far. This 98 page indictment has opened up new litigation space and posed new threats to more than a dozen of Trump's allies.

Liu Weidong, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that compared to other accusations, the evidence of Trump's alleged overthrow of the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia is more conclusive, and the impact on the US constitutional system is also stronger.

On the one hand, there is still room for discussion, such as how much direct evidence is involved in the "sealing fee" case involving Trump, and what charges Trump is involved in. On the other hand, if Trump's direct intervention in election results as president is proven, it may be unacceptable for Republicans as well. In this sense, the accusations faced by Trump in Georgia pose the biggest threat to him so far.

Diao Daming, a researcher at the National Development and Strategic Research Institute of Renmin University of China and deputy director of the Center for American Studies, has noticed that criminal charges against Trump have been constantly emerging since the beginning of this year.

Firstly, at the end of March, Trump became the first former president in US history to be charged with a criminal charge for the "sealing fee" case. In June, Trump was charged with 37 federal felonies for the "classified matter scandal". In early August, a federal grand jury in the United States filed four criminal charges against Trump for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, including conspiring to defraud the United States and obstructing official proceedings. CNN reported that Trump currently faces a total of 91 criminal charges.

Diao Daming said that the "sealing fee" case involves private morality, the "confidential matter controversy" involves leaks, and attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election results involves disrupting political order. "From the perspective of charges, the accusations against Trump reflect a trend of undercurrent and continuous escalation."

However, Trump insists that he is innocent and has been subjected to "political persecution", and his lawyer has also made innocent statements and defenses against multiple charges. On August 1st, the Trump campaign team issued a statement shelling the Biden administration and the US Department of Justice, stating that the criminal charges against Trump were aimed at intervening in the 2024 US presidential election.

Both scholars point out that Trump's recent series of accusations are related to the 2024 election. Trump and Biden announced their re election for the presidency of the United States in November last year and April this year, respectively.

Liu Weidong said that the 2024 US presidential election has already begun, and the two party presidential candidates have basically taken shape. Across the country, the approval ratings of Trump and Biden are on par. The only weapon that the Democratic Party can find in seeking to combat the Republican Party and Trump is to file a lawsuit against him.

"The Democratic Party hopes to see allegations that hinder Trump's candidacy for president and cause chaos within the Republican Party, thereby affecting the election results." Liu Weidong said, while the accusations also indicate that Trump himself has a stain.

Liu Weidong also stated that considering that the litigation is proceeding according to legal procedures, it seems that the party's color is not strong. "Although the Democratic Party claims to uphold the fairness and justice of the law, there is a political motive behind the accusations to attack opponents."

Diao Daming noticed that the timing of Trump's consecutive accusations was unusual. For example, the "sealing fee" incident occurred during Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, the "confidential scandal" occurred in January 2021 when Trump stepped down as president, and the attempt to overturn the 2020 election results occurred from November 2020 to January 2021, at least more than two years ago.

"Imagine if Trump didn't participate in the 2024 presidential election, would these events be written off?" Diao Daming said, as the US Department of Justice and local and federal juries are only investigating now, highlighting a strong partisan tone, especially in the context of the election.

Polls show that since Trump was criminally charged with the "sealing fee" case, his support within the Republican Party has significantly increased. At present, the allegations of the "confidential scandal" and interference in the 2020 election have not had an impact on Trump's support within the party.

At the same time, the individuals who initiated the investigation and brought charges against Trump, including Manhattan District Attorney, Democrat Alvin Bragg, and special prosecutor Jack Smith appointed by the Department of Justice, have close ties to the Democratic Party and are even Democrats themselves.

"The Democratic Party is clearly using these accusations to strengthen Trump's support within the Republican Party, shape the Republican primaries, and get Trump through." Diao Daming explained that a "bruised" Trump may receive support within the Republican Party, but may be abandoned by middle voters during the general election stage. At that time, Democratic voters may also become more united to resist Trump, thereby increasing the Democratic Party's chances of winning.

Liu Weidong also noticed that Trump's refusal to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election not only displeased the Democratic Party, but also some middle voters and some Republicans.

The dispute will continue

Despite being plagued by lawsuits, Trump is still the most popular candidate for the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination. According to statistics and calculations from the US polling website "538", as of August 15th, Trump's approval rating within the party exceeded 52%, far ahead of other Republican presidential candidates.

Liu Weidong said that this is due to Trump's strategy of turning danger into opportunity - portraying the accusations he faces as "political persecution" and displaying an image of steadfast struggle with the Democratic Party.

"This tactic currently appears to be quite successful, but it remains to be seen whether it will continue to work." Liu Weidong said that the current situation can be described as Trump's "sad card" triggering a stress response from supporters. In the future, Trump's approval rating may be influenced by the prosecution process, such as whether there will be a "real hammer".

As Trump's support rate within the party remains high, both scholars have stated that it is not ruled out that Trump will face more accusations.

"The Democratic Party will continue to play this card and follow suit. However, what is needed to defeat a person is not many accusations, but one with enough killing power," said Liu Weidong. If too many accusations are made by the Ministry of Justice and other parties, exposing a clear partisan color, it is expected to further stimulate the enthusiasm of Trump supporters.

Diao Daming pointed out that the increasing number of accusations faced by Trump highlights the reality of the US judicial system being instrumentalized in the context of party struggles.

The two scholars also predict that the legal dispute surrounding Trump will take some time to settle.

Liu Weidong expects that the charges against Trump will proceed through legal procedures, with the plaintiff seeking convincing evidence and the court conducting summons, hearings, and other procedures. Considering that Trump is already a presidential candidate, the court should be more cautious in weighing the verdict than before. Because ambiguous and insufficiently based judgments can easily be used as a bargaining chip by the Republican Party.

It is worth mentioning that the other three criminal charges currently facing Trump are all in the trial stage and have not yet been pronounced. "This reflects the court's caution," Liu Weidong said. Once the verdict is announced, it is likely to cause social unrest.

Diao Daming predicts that the legal disputes faced by Trump may continue until the second half of next year's election, at least after the Republican Party's primary elections, before entering the ruling stage. According to current polls, Trump is likely to advance in the primary.

However, Liu Weidong pointed out that according to the US Constitution, running for president only requires three conditions - citizens born in the United States, over 35 years old, and residing in the United States for at least 14 years. Therefore, theoretically speaking, even if convicted, Trump can still run for president or even be elected. However, the current situation is unprecedented in American history. If an extreme situation arises - Trump is convicted and elected president, it may require constitutional scholars, Congress, the Supreme Court, and other parties to make a decision on the situation.

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