What is driving these two Middle Eastern powers to reconcile?, Depth | Re send ambassadors and catalysts after ten years of opposition | Egypt | Türkiye

On July 4 local time, Egypt and Türkiye announced the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries to the ambassadorial level and exchanged ambassadors. This is an important step towards the normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries since the mutual expulsion of ambassadors nearly a decade ago. Analysis suggests that the restoration of ambassadorial level diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt occurred against the backdrop of multiple Middle Eastern countries moving towards reconciliation, which can be said to be a natural outcome. Although there are still irreconcilable contradictions and differences between these two major regional powers on hot issues, it does not affect the easing momentum of the bilateral relationship.

Luxury without separation

On July 4 local time, the Turkish government and the Egyptian government issued a joint statement stating that Türkiye and Egypt have restored their diplomatic relations to the ambassadorial level and have appointed ambassadors to each other's countries.

The statement stated that this move signifies the restoration of normal diplomatic relations between the two sides, reflecting that both countries are promoting the development of bilateral relations for the sake of people's interests.

Türkiye's new Foreign Minister Feidan said that the exchange of ambassadors means that the normalization of bilateral relations has entered an "important stage". He said that Türkiye and Egypt are two "brotherly and powerful countries". Due to their historical, geographical, cultural, strategic and religious relations, the two countries have no "luxury of separation".

Ten years ago, the relationship between Türkiye and Egypt fell to a low point.

In 2013, the Egyptian military led by the current President Sesi dismissed then President Mohammad Morsi. Due to the close relationship between Türkiye's ruling party and Morsi's Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Türkiye's President Erdogan has repeatedly supported Morsi, and the bilateral relations have deteriorated.

In November of the same year, Egypt expelled the ambassador of Türkiye and reduced the diplomatic relations between the two countries to the agency level. Türkiye also took reciprocal measures. Afterwards, the two countries also had serious differences on issues such as the Libyan civil war and the development of oil and gas in the Eastern Mediterranean.

However, since 2020, as Türkiye has repeatedly extended olive branches to try to repair its relations with neighboring countries, Turkish Egyptian relations have also shown signs of thawing.

Since 2021, Türkiye and Egypt have started high-level diplomatic official consultations, and since then, the interaction between the two sides has increased.

During the opening ceremony of the Qatar Football World Cup in November 2022, Erdogan and Sesi made their first stand together and shook hands in history, agreeing to accelerate reconciliation dialogue. This eliminates a major obstacle for the two countries to resume communication at the leadership level.

In February this year, after a strong earthquake hit the border area between Türkiye and Syria, Egypt also took the opportunity of disaster relief to express goodwill and create space for bilateral diplomacy again. Not only did Sisi immediately call Erdogan to express condolences, but Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukairi also visited Syria and Türkiye on February 27, the first visit at this level in nearly a decade.

In March, Türkiye's then Foreign Minister Chavushiolu paid a return visit to Egypt to discuss the steps to resume bilateral relations between the two countries. On May 29th, Cesi and Erdogan agreed to quickly enhance their diplomatic relations and exchange ambassadors.

What is the catalyst behind it?

It took Türkiye and Egypt ten years from their relationship to freezing point to sending ambassadors again. What is driving the restoration of normal relations between the two countries? What are the considerations of each party?

Analysts point out that the restoration of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt is taking place against the backdrop of the Middle East and the end of the tide.

Since the beginning of this year, multiple Middle Eastern countries have been moving towards reconciliation: Saudi Arabia and Iran have resumed diplomatic relations, Syria has returned to the League of Arab States, Qatar and Bahrain have resumed diplomatic relations, and the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have resumed diplomatic representation in each other

Al Jazeera stated that the regional environment, which had complicated the Turkish Egyptian crisis in the past, has now become a "catalyst" for reconciliation between the two countries.

"It is reasonable for Turkey and Egypt to resume diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level. This is also the reflection of Türkiye's diplomatic route to the Middle East since Erdogan entered his new term of office," said Guo Changgang, director of the Institute of History of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Türkiye Research Center of Shanghai University.

In the past, due to Türkiye's political philosophy and support for the Muslim Brotherhood since the "Arab Spring", Türkiye's relations with neighboring countries were strained. At that time, Davutoglu, the former Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye, put forward the "zero problem of neighboring countries", which was even called "zero country zero problem".

However, Guo Changgang pointed out that in recent years, with Türkiye's diplomatic turn and its commitment to repairing relations with neighboring countries, its relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Syria and other countries have begun to ease, and the restoration of relations with Egypt is also under this background. In addition, Türkiye has been committed to expanding its influence in the Arab world north of the Sahara Desert in recent years, and Turkish Egyptian reconciliation will also benefit from this.

Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at the Middle East Research Center of Fudan University, also believes that Türkiye has eased relations with neighboring countries since 2021, and now the diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt have returned to normal, which can be said to be a natural result. Against the backdrop of the easing tide in the Middle East, regional countries have increased their strategic autonomy and realized that factionalized confrontation is not conducive to national interests.

In addition, the analysis also points out that both Egypt and Türkiye have a strong desire to enhance bilateral relations.

In recent years, Türkiye has faced economic difficulties, high unemployment rate and serious inflation due to multiple internal and external factors.

Guo Changgang believes that the economic factors in the reconciliation between Turkey and Egypt cannot be ignored. For Erdogan, he needs to fulfill his election promise to improve employment and inflation in Türkiye. Türkiye urgently needs to find a larger market for its products. Egypt, with a population of more than 100 million, is a market that Türkiye attaches great importance to.

Guo Changgang pointed out that previously, although diplomatic cracks still existed between Turkey and Egypt, the two countries still maintained strong economic and trade relations. In 2022, the bilateral trade volume between Türkiye and Egypt has increased to 7.7 billion US dollars. Egypt's exports to Türkiye reached a record US $4 billion, an increase of 32% over the previous year, and Türkiye became the largest natural gas importer in Egypt.

Zou Zhiqiang also believes that, challenged by internal and external factors such as economy and international environment, Türkiye hopes to create a more favorable and positive external environment through cooperation with neighboring countries, attract more investment, expand foreign trade, and obtain practical benefits.

From the perspective of Egypt, Zou Zhiqiang said that since 2021, Türkiye has restricted the activities of members and groups of the Muslim Brotherhood in its territory, meeting the requirements of Egypt. In addition, Egypt's relations with neighboring countries have been greatly affected by Saudi Arabia. With the improvement of Saudi relations with Türkiye and Iran, obstacles in this regard have disappeared.

Guo Changgang also believes that Egypt needs to maintain good relations with Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and other countries if it wants to maintain its status as a major country in the Arab world and play an important role. Especially when Türkiye is repairing relations with other Arab countries, Egypt will not stray.

Will reconciliation form a synergy?

The normalization of diplomatic relations between Egypt and Türkiye has added new waves to the tide of reconciliation in the Middle East. However, analysts also pointed out that due to the differences between Türkiye and Egypt on many hot issues, the future relations between the two countries may still face challenges.

Zou Zhiqiang believes that compared with the detente between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, the detente between Turkey and Egypt is the slowest, which reflects that the political mutual trust between the two sides is still low and they are wary. Specifically, the differences between the two sides on the Libyan issue and the development of oil and gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean are still ongoing, as they involve multiple interests and a political solution has yet to be reached. In addition, there are subtle differences in Turkey's stance on issues such as Palestine and Syria.

However, Zou Zhiqiang believes that although there are still irreconcilable contradictions and differences between the two sides on regional hot topics, it does not affect the easing momentum of their relationship.

Guo Changgang believes that Türkiye has played a more active role in repairing relations with neighboring countries in recent years, and the improvement of relations with all parties is also based on Türkiye's appropriate restraint. Therefore, as long as Türkiye does not take radical measures on issues such as oil and gas development in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, the conflict with Egypt is not expected to intensify again.

Not only may reconciliation between Turkey and Egypt face challenges, but due to regional instability, there may also be setbacks in the Middle East and the tide of reconciliation.

On July 3rd, the Israeli Defense Forces launched the "largest" military operation in 20 years in the Jenin area of the northern West Bank, once again reminding people of the instability and unpredictability of the situation in the West Bank. On July 4th, the Yemeni government forces also engaged in fierce clashes with the Housai armed forces in the southwestern province of Taiz in Yemen, indicating that the Yemeni peace process, which has made positive progress, has also experienced setbacks.

Guo Changgang believes that some long-term conflicts in the Middle East cannot be resolved in the short term, and decades of struggle cannot suddenly return to calm. However, the trend of resolving the tide has emerged, and seeking development and cooperation, strengthening strategic autonomy, has also become a consensus among regional countries.

Zou Zhiqiang also stated that regional hot spot issues are not recent, but have formed over the long term. Therefore, regardless of the rise or fall of regional power relations, these issues are difficult to resolve quickly. In the view of some scholars, there is still uncertainty about whether the region and the tide will continue and be reversed.

However, Zou Zhiqiang pointed out that the easing of bilateral relations between Turkey and Egypt is expected to form a joint force in the large-scale and resolution of regional tensions, which will play a positive role in cooling down hot issues such as the Libya and Palestine issues and advancing peace talks. This allows all parties to sit at the negotiating table, present their demands and solutions, rather than resorting to force to resolve the issue.