What does it mean?, Depth | Far Right German Choice Party First Place of Governance First Place of Governance | Far Right | German Choice Party

On June 25th local time, Robert Zeselman, the candidate of the German Select Party, won the local chief executive election in Sonneberg, Thuringia, marking the first time the party has won a local chief executive election since its establishment in 2013.

Public opinion has noticed that this is happening against the backdrop of the prolonged crisis in Ukraine and the increasingly prominent backlash of Western sanctions against Russia. If mainstream political parties in Germany and even Europe still find it difficult to come up with effective countermeasures in political, economic, social and other fields, it is not ruled out that the local right-wing populist forces will continue to dominate.

Political "earthquake"

According to reports, in the Songneberg District Chief Executive election held on June 11th, no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, so a runoff election was held on June 25th. From the perspective of the election situation, the local mainstream political parties are trying to bridge their differences and work together to squeeze the Choice Party out of the campaign stage, but it seems to have the opposite effect.

According to the statistics department of Thuringia, Zeselman was elected as the Governor of Sonneberg on the 25th with 52.8% of the vote. And his competitor, the current leader of the center right Christian Democratic Union, Yurgen Keppel, lost with 47.2% of the vote.

For this result, some are happy while others are worried. The party side stated that this result has given the party a shot in the arm. Alice Weidel, the chairman of the Federal House caucus of the Choice Party, said, "Zeselman made history.".

The best-selling German tabloid Bild claimed that Zeselman's victory in the election was a "huge success for the far right political party", sparking a political "earthquake".

The Guardian called it a "watershed moment" in German politics.

On the side of the old party, there is a stronger sense of surprise and disappointment. Saskia Esken, the chairman of the Social Democratic Party under German Chancellor Scholz, said that the victory of the Chosen Party was a "political breach.".

The Secretary General of the Christian Democratic Union, Mario Chaya, stated that the election results are a "bitter fruit" for centrist parties.

As one of the ruling parties, Green Party Chairman Ricarda Lang said that the election results have sounded an alarm for mainstream political parties and called on all parties to unite.

The statement of German government spokesperson Stefan Haberstracht seems more objective. He stated that this result indicates the need for more cross party "objective" discussions in the context of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, intensified climate change, high energy prices and inflation in Europe, and the immigration crisis.

What are the advantages

As an emerging political party with right-wing populist tendencies and a radical and skeptical attitude towards issues such as immigration and European integration, the Chosen Party has long been excluded by mainstream German political parties.

Sun Keqin, a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, and Professor Zheng Chunrong, director of the German Research Center at Tongji University, both noticed that the Chosen Party is a political party that started with immigration issues.

In 2017, the Chosen Party also achieved results that shook Europe. In the German general election held that year, the German Choice Party, which had only been established for four years, received nearly 13% of the vote, becoming the third largest party in the lower house of the Federal Parliament for the first time, after the Alliance Party composed of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, as well as the Social Democratic Party, the two old political parties.

CNN reported that in recent years, the Chosen Party has consolidated its position as the most successful far right political party in Germany since World War II, while also attracting attention from mainstream political parties. In 2019, the Federal Constitutional Protection Agency responsible for domestic security affairs in Germany stated that it would strengthen monitoring of the Select Party and investigate whether it had engaged in unconstitutional and extreme behavior.

In recent years, with the outbreak of the epidemic, immigration issues have gradually cooled down, and coupled with internal struggles within the Chosen Party, the support rate for the Chosen Party has dropped to around 10%.

At present, the Choice Party has once again set a new record. Both scholars indicate that this is mainly related to three factors.

Firstly, since its establishment ten years ago, the Chosen Party has continuously expanded its influence and has certain strength in federal and local councils, especially in the eastern region of Germany.

At the federal level, in the September 2021 German general election, the Select Party received 10.3% of the vote, ranking fifth, only behind the three political parties that later formed the ruling coalition and the Alliance Party.

"One of the highlights of this election is that the party has begun to enter local government governance, and this identity transformation is worth paying attention to," said Sun Keqin.

At the local level, Zheng Chunrong stated that the Chosen Party has a certain advantage in the eastern region of Germany. This is because the local economic situation is poor, and issues such as difficult employment for the people are more prominent, making it easier for voters to be attracted by right-wing populist views.

The Governor of Thuringia, Puerto Ramelo, also mentioned that after more than 30 years of reunification between East and West Germany, the "fault line" of economic development still exists. This phenomenon only attracts attention when something "bad" or "unpleasant" happens. Ramelo called on people to pay more attention to economic inequality in development.

Secondly, with changes in the political, economic, and social situation in Germany and even Europe, the Chosen Party is facing opportunities. Two scholars have noticed that the first time the Chosen Party has gained local governance comes at a time when the Ukrainian crisis has had a significant impact on Europe and the backlash of Western sanctions against Russia is becoming increasingly prominent.

The data released by the German Federal Bureau of Statistics last month showed that Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.3% month on month in the first quarter of this year, marking the second consecutive quarter on quarter decline and a "technical recession" in the German economy.

"As the crisis in Ukraine continues, Germany is paying an increasing price, which will shift to voters and cause dissatisfaction," said Sun Keqin. Local people have a firsthand feeling of high energy prices and inflation.

According to The Guardian, as part of the campaign, Zeselman called on the Scholz government to push for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and opposed Germany's military support for Kiev. Both scholars have noticed that the support from Germany and even within Europe for continuing to support Ukraine and Russia is showing a downward trend, such as multiple anti war protests.

Furthermore, mainstream political parties have failed to come up with effective measures to address high inflation, climate change, and other issues, which are both influenced by the international situation and related to the domestic political situation in Germany.

Both scholars have stated that the German ruling coalition is composed of three political parties from different camps with different considerations, making it difficult to reach consensus and implement policy measures, thereby hindering national development.

In this context, using the dissatisfaction of some voters to win support has become another option outside of the established major party.

As a candidate, Keppel stated that it was "the poor policies of the German government" that led to the success of the Select Party. He said that unlike in the past, this election has evolved into an election centered around political parties rather than the selection of officials.

The New York Times also wrote that such local elections often revolve around issues such as parking, garbage, and local finances. But unusually, this election has focused to some extent on criticism of federal politics.

Hans Forlander, a political scientist based in Dresden, Germany, said that the latest election results indicate that "the chaos in the German government has caused very bad emotions, and people's trust in Berlin is almost at its lowest level in history.".

The dissatisfaction of German voters seems to be reflected in the Berlin local elections held in February this year. At that time, Berlin held state council elections and the Social Democratic Party, to which Scholz belonged, suffered a heavy defeat, losing to the Christian Democratic Union for the first time in more than 20 years in the capital region.

Zheng Chunrong also stated that in Thuringia, mainstream political parties lack strategies to deal with the rise of right-wing populist forces, providing a "window of opportunity" for the latter.

Just the beginning?

Next, as the local administrator, Zeselman will be responsible for many policies and services that directly affect the lives of residents in the region, including infrastructure, employment, and refugee resettlement.

The public opinion believes that although the population of Sonneberg is relatively limited, the symbolic significance of this election result goes beyond the town itself, and may push the Choice Party onto the stage of competition with mainstream political parties. Sun Keqin noticed that choosing the party also has the intention of advancing into the Prime Minister's Office.

Weidel also stated that Zeselman became the first local governor of the Chosen Party, "and this is just the beginning.".

It is worth noting that the upward trend of choosing the party is not only reflected at the local level, but also at the national level. A German public opinion survey shows that the Choice Party has surpassed the Social Democratic Party, which Prime Minister Scholz belongs to, to become the second highest supported political party in Germany.

Both scholars have stated that although this is a local election, the victory of choosing the party this time will raise the alarm of mainstream political parties. Sun Keqin said that the three parties in the ruling alliance will consider how to compare their own abilities with the strength of the chosen party.

Zheng Chunrong also stated that this result may promote the unity of mainstream political parties. "Facing common opponents, mainstream political parties can more easily reach consensus when formulating policies."

Zheng Chunrong also stated that in the short term, choosing the party will not have a disruptive impact. This is because in national polls, there is still a gap in support between the Chosen Party and the Alliance Party, with the latter having a support rate of about 28%.

Reuters also wrote that given Germany's Nazi history, the power of the Chosen Party is particularly sensitive in Germany. However, senior members of the Chosen Party have stated that they are not the "Nazis" that some public opinion fears.

Meanwhile, both scholars have stated that the possibility of choosing the party to continue to dominate has not been ruled out, and whether its upward momentum can continue will depend on multiple factors both inside and outside Germany.

One is whether the crisis in Ukraine will continue, as it will affect the German public's perception of mainstream political parties. The second is whether the ruling party and opposition coalition parties can adjust their policies in a timely manner and come up with effective countermeasures in areas such as high inflation, refugee arrivals, and climate change.

"In the coming local elections, we will see to some extent an upward trend in right-wing populist forces," Zheng Chunrong said. This is because effectively solving economic and livelihood issues is not easy, and there are constraints within the German ruling coalition, and mainstream political parties seem to still find it difficult to come up with strategies to deal with the rise of right-wing populist forces.

Sun Keqin also stated, "In the short to medium term, choosing the party will be an undeniable force." However, given the extreme color of choosing the party and other factors, it is expected that the party's support rate will fluctuate between 10% and 18%. Moreover, even if the party chooses to stand on a higher governing platform, the extent of its achievements is still unknown.

Zheng Chunrong also pointed out that in the context of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, the trend of right-wing populist forces rising is not only appearing in Germany. In the Italian parliamentary elections held in September last year, the center right coalition of political parties led by the Italian Brotherhood Party was far ahead in the election. This is another time that right-wing political forces gained significant public support in major European elections that year. Previously, the Swedish Democratic Party jumped to become the second largest party after the Swedish parliamentary elections in the same month, and French far right party candidates also gained support in the April presidential election last year.

"It can be foreseen that as the Ukrainian crisis continues, internal issues within Europe will become more prominent." Zheng Chunrong said, "How to play a constructive role in promoting the end of the Ukrainian crisis is worth considering by European governments."