What do Russian media think?, Russian Lunar-25 probe lost contact with the moon | Russian media | Lost contact with the moon | Lunar-25 probe | Russia

On the 20th, the Russian National Space Group announced that preliminary analysis results showed that due to deviations between actual and predetermined parameters, the Russian "Lunar-25" probe deviated from the predetermined orbit and collided with the surface of the moon before losing contact. At present, the cross departmental committee is investigating the cause of the accident.

Although the final investigation results have not yet been released, Russian media quoted Russian aerospace scientists as suggesting several possibilities for the cause of the accident and discussed the impact of the accident on Russia's moon landing career.

Lost contact during lunar collision

According to the Russian National Space Corporation, according to the flight plan, the control center should send a pulse signal to send the probe into the landing orbit on the 19th, and then the probe will descend to the moon in an elliptical orbit near the moon.

However, on the afternoon of the 19th Moscow time, communication between the ground and the detector was interrupted. From the 19th to the 20th, relevant departments searched for the detector and attempted to contact it but were unsuccessful.

Preliminary analysis shows that the actual pulse parameters deviated from the calculation, causing the detector to enter an uncertain orbit and ultimately lose contact with the moon. The Russian side has established a cross departmental committee to investigate the cause of the accident.

The outside world has noticed that there were technical issues with the detector before the accident occurred. On the 19th, the Russian National Space Group announced that the probe encountered an abnormality while performing orbit change control and entering the landing preparation orbit, and could not operate according to the predetermined parameters.

The Lunar-25 probe took off from the Eastern Space Launch Site in Amur Oblast, Far East Russia on the Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket on the 11th of this month and successfully entered lunar orbit on the 16th.

According to previous plans, the Lunar-25 probe is expected to make a soft landing near the Boguslavsky crater in the South Pole of the Moon on the 21st. If successful, "Lunar-25" will become the first probe in human history to land at the South Pole of the Moon.

Causal conjecture

Although the final investigation results have not yet been released, Russian aerospace scientists believe that the failure of the mission may be related to the following factors.

One is parameter deviation.

Space technology expert Andrei Yemeiyanov said that atmospheric parameters and gravitational field parameters have never been ideal, and there are always fluctuations of one kind or another. The task of modern astronauts and engineers is to set acceptable deviation parameters and approach the preset orbit as closely as possible.

Nastan Esmont, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Space Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that for experts, not everything goes according to plan. When changing orbits, some preset parameters will be obtained, but there is still a risk of whether the final landing in the critical stage is carried out according to the parameters.

The second is engine failure.

Spaceship expert Ilya Ovchenikov said that during the landing of Moon-25, the engine seemed to have malfunctioned. The probe was supposed to descend and land on the moon in an elliptical orbit at a distance of 18 kilometers from the lunar point, but it felt like it had plunged into the moon. This means that the engine's working time may have exceeded the necessary time. "This is a possibility. I can only guess."

Ovchenikov said that this situation may have occurred automatically - the power system was shut down at the wrong time, or it could have been caused by a calculation error, and further analysis is needed.

Nastan Esmont also pointed out that the engine of the detector did not operate as designed and could not adjust its heading. "The last launch was to send the probe to the landing preparation orbit, but it did not proceed as planned, possibly due to thrust issues or incorrect direction."

The third issue is scheduling.

Nastan Esmont said that decision-makers issuing landing dispatch instructions for probes should have been more careful in evaluating whether the expected parameters were met and whether the error values were acceptable.

"The worrying signs of the probe were even noticed before attempting to enter orbit... The management may have made a mistake by causing the probe to land too early." The expert said that the probe could have "made a few more turns" in orbit, cleared the anomalies, and landed cautiously.

The fourth is personnel adjustment.

Andrei Yemeiyanov said, "Looking back, our previous moon landing occurred nearly 50 years ago. Now we have new employees, new electronic products, new software and hardware. All of these need to be relearned... You must realize that we have different people working. In any situation, personnel factors can have an impact."

Alexander Baoulin, editor in chief of the Russian space media "Pro Universe", said that in the past 47 years, designers, engineers, and maintenance personnel have undergone intergenerational changes, and young engineers are able to complete most tasks - launching from orbit to interstellar space stations - but not always successful. "For example, the failed 'Phobos Soils' Mars probe in 2011 was left in near Earth orbit."

How does it affect geometry?

Russian analysts believe that the incident may first affect Russia's plan to land on the South Pole of the Moon, or a new rocket may not be launched until a few years later.

Nastan Esmont estimated the duration to be "one to two years later.". He also noticed that the lunar landing competition is currently fierce, and "there are many countries waiting in line to land on the moon."

The Russian television station "tsargrad" pointed out that the "Lunar-25" is not only a very important project, but in a sense, it is also Russia's plan to return to the moon race.

The television station stated that although Western media and Ukraine are gloating over the failure of Russia's moon landing, please remember three things: first, there are very few countries in the world that can land on the moon, and Russia is one of them. Secondly, there is a Russian proverb: the first cake is burnt, and we haven't been to the moon for over 40 years. Thirdly, despite wars and Western sanctions, Russia's space program has been very successful.

"So we can easily figure out what caused this failure, and then launch the next lunar spacecraft," the television station said.

Russian space historians recall that "Luna-9" achieved a soft landing on the moon in 1966, and the Soviet Union did not achieve its first success until its 12th attempt. The United States also experienced three failed attempts before landing safely. Looking at Israeli and Indian astronauts, they have also encountered difficulties when attempting to land on the moon. In just the past five years, half of the 18 lunar missions have been considered partial or complete failures... These are all natural situations that any astronaut will experience.

Alexander Bahrin said that Russia believes that even under sanctions, it can still manufacture rockets, interstellar space stations, and lunar exploration equipment on its own. "This is important because the sanctions will last for a long time, and the next similar lunar mission is expected to be even more difficult."

"What is important now is that the space program must be pushed forward with greater intensity and learn from its failures," said Alexander Bawlin.