"The French political landscape is changing every day", Macron's early election has triggered a scramble among parties to form alliances

Release time:Jun 14, 2024 13:06 PM

The left is busy uniting, the right is engaged in infighting, and divisions on the far right are emerging... Since French President Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections on the evening of June 9th local time, all French political parties have been scrambling to form alliances in the past five days.

"The political landscape in France is changing every day." Some Western analysts said that the situation may not become more stable until the deadline for candidates to submit their applications on the 16th.

The French National Assembly has a total of 577 seats and is directly elected by voters using a two-round majority voting system.

According to the schedule announced by Macron, the first round of voting for the new National Assembly election is scheduled for June 30, and a possible second round of voting is scheduled for July 7. The deadline for candidates to submit their applications is before the evening of the 16th.

Macron said the early election was aimed at respecting the will of the people and "clarifying" France's political landscape. He urged voters to reject extremism and embrace his centrist coalition after his centrist Ennahda party suffered a crushing defeat in European Parliament elections, winning less than half the votes of the far-right National Rally.

With just three days left until the registration deadline and two weeks until voting day, parties are looking for allies, coordinating candidates and printing leaflets for the shortest campaign cycle in modern French history.

Many members of Macron's ruling Ennahda Party were surprised by the early election. Insiders said that the president warned people to be wary of the extreme left and right forces and firmly believed that early elections were the "right decision." However, you can't achieve your goal just by crying wolf.

For the French left, the early election has brought about a rare unity among the political parties. "Do we want to win together, or do we want to lose separately?" a senior official of the left-wing party "France Indomitable" asked on the 10th.

Late on the 13th, the French Socialist Party, the "Unbowed France" Party, the European Ecological Party-Green Party and the Communist Party put aside months of quarrels and agreed to work together in the election. They announced that they had formulated a common political platform that excluded competitive candidates; if they could win a majority of seats in the National Assembly, they would jointly govern.

It is noteworthy that Jean-Michel Mélenchon, a radical far-left figure who has run for French president three times and founder of the "France Indomitable" party, said on the 12th that if the left-wing coalition wins a majority of seats in this election, he is capable of becoming the new French prime minister. However, the left-wing coalition has a cold attitude towards this, and most members are worried that Mélenchon is too divisive to lead the entire left.

Some French public opinion said that since there is still no figure who can unite the people, the left-wing alliance may choose not to designate a leader for the time being.

For France's right-wing parties, early elections have triggered an "implosion."

On the 11th, French right-wing Republican Party leader Sciotti broke a long-standing taboo and discussed an alliance with far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen. The National Rally agreed not to send candidates to compete with Sciotti and Republican candidates in other constituencies. However, Sciotti's move caused great confusion within the party.

The Republican leadership was furious that Sciotti had gone behind their backs and reached a deal with the National Alliance, calling him a "traitor." Almost all of the party's top brass called for Sciotti's resignation.

On the 12th, Sciotti closed the party's headquarters in central Paris, allegedly to prevent party colleagues from meeting to remove him. Party leaders then loudly accused Sciotti in front of the locked headquarters building and held a meeting in a nearby building instead, unanimously deciding to expel Sciotti from the party.

On the 13th, Sciotti returned to the party headquarters and delivered a brief speech, emphasizing that he is still the party chairman and that the party's expulsion of him was "illegal."

"This is surreal," said one French public opinion. "The chaos on the right is a clown show, and Sciotti's dealings with the National Rally are disgraceful," said Eric Le Goff, 62, who works at a French chamber of commerce.

For the far-right forces, early elections also make internal divisions more prominent.

The far-right Reconquista party, led by far-right TV commentator Zemmour, is showing signs of splitting. Marechal, a senior figure in the party and Le Pen's niece, is dissatisfied with Zemmour's plan to send his party's candidate to compete with the National Rally candidate. Zemmour announced on the 12th that Marechal would be excluded from the Reconquista party's candidate list.

Whether Marechal will return to the "Le Pen family" has attracted attention from the outside world.

"The political landscape in France is changing on a daily basis," Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at U.S.-based risk consultancy Eurasia Group, wrote in a note to clients.

“It’s tragic and a bit ridiculous,” Gaspard Ganze, a former adviser to former French President Francois Hollande, said of this week’s political chaos. “But I think things will stabilize by the weekend.”

After the registration of candidates ends on the evening of the 16th, the election campaigns of various parties will officially begin. According to the poll data released recently, the National Rally leads with 34% support and is expected to win 235 to 265 seats in the election, far exceeding the current 88 seats; Macron's support rate is only 19%.

Some voters questioned why Macron wanted to stir up a political chaos that might not be worth the cost.

"Frankly, it's not a wise move by the president to subject the French people to a three-week hasty campaign trapped between two extremes of the political spectrum," said Le Goff, a 62-year-old Paris resident.

Ariane Bogan, a French politics scholar at Northumbria University in the UK, said French voters were annoyed by having to vote "against whom" rather than "for whom".

comment
Is the Speaker of the US House of Representatives involuntary?, Impeachment investigation of "sword finger" Biden Biden | impeachment
Is the Speaker of the US House of Representatives involuntary?, Impeachment investigation of "sword finger" Biden Biden | impeachment

According to Xinhua News Agency and CCTV News, on September 12th, US House Speaker McCarthy stated on social media that he has requested relevant House committees to initiate a formal impeachment investigation into President Biden. McCarthy explained that the decision was made because House Republicans found in an investigation into members of the Biden family that Biden may have engaged in abuse of power, obstruction of justice, and corruption. In fact, the Republican investigation into the Biden family by the House of Representatives has been ongoing for a long time, and no specific evidence has been produced regarding the President's violation of the law. So, why did McCarthy change his cautious stance and suddenly press the "impeachment investigation" button? What does this mean for Biden? McCarthy was kidnapped? The US Constitution stipulates that when the ruling president commits "treason, bribery, or other serious crimes," Congress may issue a bullet

The British Foreign Secretary's visit to China at the end of August? Sunak wants to initiate a "contact route with China"? Visiting China at the end of August | British Foreign Secretary | Sources
The British Foreign Secretary's visit to China at the end of August? Sunak wants to initiate a "contact route with China"? Visiting China at the end of August | British Foreign Secretary | Sources

Multiple foreign media outlets have quoted informed sources as saying that British Foreign Secretary Cleverley is expected to visit China at the end of this month. If successful, he will become the first British Foreign Secretary to visit China in five years. The analysis points out that the Sunak administration's policy towards China highlights the dual nature of cooperation with the US strategy while emphasizing its engagement with China. If the visit is successful, it may help stabilize and ease the low level China UK relationship, but the long-term improvement of the relationship is still constrained by a series of factors. Restart relations with China? Cleverley was originally scheduled to visit China at the end of July, but was unable to make the trip due to a change in the position of Chinese Foreign Minister. Now, the delayed itinerary may restart. Reuters reported on the 21st, citing a source, that Cleverley is expected to arrive in Beijing on August 29th. Two other sources stated that the visit is expected to take place at the end of this month, but did not specify the specifics

Prime Minister Modi will give his final Independence Day speech before the election, in depth | India celebrates Independence Day tomorrow | Modi | Independence Day | India
Prime Minister Modi will give his final Independence Day speech before the election, in depth | India celebrates Independence Day tomorrow | Modi | Independence Day | India

On August 15th, India will celebrate its 77th Independence Day. Indian Prime Minister Modi will raise the national flag on the walls of the iconic Red Fort in New Delhi and deliver a speech to the country. This will be Modi's 10th consecutive Independence Day speech and also his last Independence Day speech before the 2024 election. Analysis suggests that currently, whether it is the inflation risk caused by the soaring prices of tomatoes and rice, the deadly three-month racial conflict, or the formation of an alliance among 26 opposition parties, all are unavoidable issues for the Indian People's Party. At the same time, Modi's foreign policy of approaching the United States and the West has also sparked controversy. In this context, Modi will take Independence Day as an opportunity to showcase his achievements in governance, depict a "strategic opportunity period", and strive to create a favorable atmosphere for next year's election. Declaration before the election in August

See you on August 26th?, Musk and Zuckerberg's "cage fight" social media live broadcast | "cage fight" | Zuckerberg | Musk
See you on August 26th?, Musk and Zuckerberg's "cage fight" social media live broadcast | "cage fight" | Zuckerberg | Musk

On August 6th, American entrepreneur Musk announced on his social media platform that his duel with another tech guru, Zuckerberg, will be broadcast live on Facebook, but did not disclose specific information. Zuckerberg responded, "I'm ready.". Since the two of them engaged in a standoff over a month ago, a new storyline has emerged in this Silicon Valley peak showdown. Although it remains to be seen whether Musk and Zuckerberg will eventually meet on the fighting field, their every move is enough to attract public attention. "Ready," Musk said on the same day that his duel with Zuckerberg would be live streamed on the Twitter platform, and the proceeds would be donated to veterans. At present, this tweet has received over 60000 reposts and over 600000 likes from netizens. Musk also stated that despite being busy with work, he has been taking time to practice weightlifting recently

Observer | Israel moves towards China in the midst of changes | United States | Middle East | Visit to China | Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
Observer | Israel moves towards China in the midst of changes | United States | Middle East | Visit to China | Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu

According to the mainstream Israeli media Israel Times on the 26th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will visit China next month. The report suggests that Netanyahu will seek help from China on this trip to enhance relations with Saudi Arabia, and also suggests that this may make the United States unhappy, but Israel has also lost patience with the United States. Although it has not yet been officially confirmed by both countries, the author believes that the credibility of this news is high, and also believes that the significance of this trip is not limited to this. From a personal perspective, Netanyahu may be the most positive Israeli government in terms of relations with China. In 2013, he visited China almost simultaneously with Palestinian leader Abbas and had very good talks with the Chinese side. In 2017, he visited China again and witnessed the establishment of the "Innovation Comprehensive Partnership" between China and Israel. On the eve of the Chinese Spring Festival a few years ago, he sent Cantonese to the Chinese people