"The French political landscape is changing every day", Macron's early election has triggered a scramble among parties to form alliances
The left is busy uniting, the right is engaged in infighting, and divisions on the far right are emerging... Since French President Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections on the evening of June 9th local time, all French political parties have been scrambling to form alliances in the past five days.
"The political landscape in France is changing every day." Some Western analysts said that the situation may not become more stable until the deadline for candidates to submit their applications on the 16th.
The French National Assembly has a total of 577 seats and is directly elected by voters using a two-round majority voting system.
According to the schedule announced by Macron, the first round of voting for the new National Assembly election is scheduled for June 30, and a possible second round of voting is scheduled for July 7. The deadline for candidates to submit their applications is before the evening of the 16th.
Macron said the early election was aimed at respecting the will of the people and "clarifying" France's political landscape. He urged voters to reject extremism and embrace his centrist coalition after his centrist Ennahda party suffered a crushing defeat in European Parliament elections, winning less than half the votes of the far-right National Rally.
With just three days left until the registration deadline and two weeks until voting day, parties are looking for allies, coordinating candidates and printing leaflets for the shortest campaign cycle in modern French history.
Many members of Macron's ruling Ennahda Party were surprised by the early election. Insiders said that the president warned people to be wary of the extreme left and right forces and firmly believed that early elections were the "right decision." However, you can't achieve your goal just by crying wolf.
For the French left, the early election has brought about a rare unity among the political parties. "Do we want to win together, or do we want to lose separately?" a senior official of the left-wing party "France Indomitable" asked on the 10th.
Late on the 13th, the French Socialist Party, the "Unbowed France" Party, the European Ecological Party-Green Party and the Communist Party put aside months of quarrels and agreed to work together in the election. They announced that they had formulated a common political platform that excluded competitive candidates; if they could win a majority of seats in the National Assembly, they would jointly govern.
It is noteworthy that Jean-Michel Mélenchon, a radical far-left figure who has run for French president three times and founder of the "France Indomitable" party, said on the 12th that if the left-wing coalition wins a majority of seats in this election, he is capable of becoming the new French prime minister. However, the left-wing coalition has a cold attitude towards this, and most members are worried that Mélenchon is too divisive to lead the entire left.
Some French public opinion said that since there is still no figure who can unite the people, the left-wing alliance may choose not to designate a leader for the time being.
For France's right-wing parties, early elections have triggered an "implosion."
On the 11th, French right-wing Republican Party leader Sciotti broke a long-standing taboo and discussed an alliance with far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen. The National Rally agreed not to send candidates to compete with Sciotti and Republican candidates in other constituencies. However, Sciotti's move caused great confusion within the party.
The Republican leadership was furious that Sciotti had gone behind their backs and reached a deal with the National Alliance, calling him a "traitor." Almost all of the party's top brass called for Sciotti's resignation.
On the 12th, Sciotti closed the party's headquarters in central Paris, allegedly to prevent party colleagues from meeting to remove him. Party leaders then loudly accused Sciotti in front of the locked headquarters building and held a meeting in a nearby building instead, unanimously deciding to expel Sciotti from the party.
On the 13th, Sciotti returned to the party headquarters and delivered a brief speech, emphasizing that he is still the party chairman and that the party's expulsion of him was "illegal."
"This is surreal," said one French public opinion. "The chaos on the right is a clown show, and Sciotti's dealings with the National Rally are disgraceful," said Eric Le Goff, 62, who works at a French chamber of commerce.
For the far-right forces, early elections also make internal divisions more prominent.
The far-right Reconquista party, led by far-right TV commentator Zemmour, is showing signs of splitting. Marechal, a senior figure in the party and Le Pen's niece, is dissatisfied with Zemmour's plan to send his party's candidate to compete with the National Rally candidate. Zemmour announced on the 12th that Marechal would be excluded from the Reconquista party's candidate list.
Whether Marechal will return to the "Le Pen family" has attracted attention from the outside world.
"The political landscape in France is changing on a daily basis," Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at U.S.-based risk consultancy Eurasia Group, wrote in a note to clients.
“It’s tragic and a bit ridiculous,” Gaspard Ganze, a former adviser to former French President Francois Hollande, said of this week’s political chaos. “But I think things will stabilize by the weekend.”
After the registration of candidates ends on the evening of the 16th, the election campaigns of various parties will officially begin. According to the poll data released recently, the National Rally leads with 34% support and is expected to win 235 to 265 seats in the election, far exceeding the current 88 seats; Macron's support rate is only 19%.
Some voters questioned why Macron wanted to stir up a political chaos that might not be worth the cost.
"Frankly, it's not a wise move by the president to subject the French people to a three-week hasty campaign trapped between two extremes of the political spectrum," said Le Goff, a 62-year-old Paris resident.
Ariane Bogan, a French politics scholar at Northumbria University in the UK, said French voters were annoyed by having to vote "against whom" rather than "for whom".
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