Niger coup soldiers closing airspace: war, mediation, or silence?, Depth | The deadline has passed for the Western Community | The coup soldiers have closed their airspace | Niger
In recent days, the uncertain fate of a West African country has touched the nerves of all parties.
A coup nearly two weeks ago pushed Niger into unpredictable waters. On July 30th, the Economic Community of West African States issued an ultimatum demanding that coup soldiers surrender power and restore their elected presidential powers within a week, or else take all measures, including military intervention.
August 6th is the deadline. On the day of the Niger coup, military personnel claimed that the country was facing the threat of external military intervention and announced the closure of its airspace.
The Western Community has not yet responded and there are no signs of sending troops so far.
"The deadline has passed, war, mediation, or silence?" The New York Times expressed concerns about the next steps in the situation.
Is there no turning arrow when bowing?
Since the arrest of President Bazum on July 26th and the sudden change in the situation in Niger, the two sides have been fighting and not making concessions to each other.
The Western Community and the United States and Europe are urging coup soldiers to hand over power, reinstate Bazum, and even issue warnings of military intervention, with a deadline set. The coup soldiers refused to obey.
On August 6th, the deadline is approaching.
That evening, Niger's coup soldiers issued a statement announcing the closure of the country's airspace.
The statement stated that in the face of military intervention threats from neighboring countries, Niger will immediately close its airspace, and all attempts to violate this ban will receive a "timely and strong response.".
Zhang Zhongxiang, director of the Africa Research Center at Shanghai Normal University, believes that the confidence of Niger's coup soldiers may come from the support of some people.
In addition to military complaints about the President's excessive pro French stance, insufficient support for counter-terrorism, and personal grudges between the President and the President who launched the coup, Zhang Zhongxiang pointed out that the cause of Niger's coup has some commonalities with other African countries involved in the coup, including backward economic development and poor domestic governance. For example, in 2022, the per capita GDP of Niger was only $584, and some people may hope to see the possibility of national change during the coup.
After the coup, many people held marches and demonstrations in the capital of Niger, Niamey, to express their support for the coup. On August 6th, thousands of protesters gathered at a sports stadium in the capital to support the coup and oppose external intervention.
"Moreover, after launching a coup, if there is no turning back, there is little possibility of giving up voluntarily," said Zhang Zhongxiang.
How does the Western Community play cards?
After the coup soldiers took the lead in building their defenses, the outside world's attention turned to the reaction of West African countries.
Previously, the Western Community stated that it had developed a possible military intervention plan, including the necessary resources, deployment methods, and timing, to overturn the coup in Niger and restore constitutional order.
However, as of now, there are no signs of military action being taken.
In Zhang Zhongxiang's view, although the Western Community has a firm attitude and claims armed intervention, the possibility is not too high.
Firstly, as the rotating chair of the Western Community, Nigeria has different voices domestically. Although the new President Bola Tenub has a strong and firm stance, the Speaker of the Senate in China hopes that the government can peacefully resolve the crisis through political means.
Secondly, Niger's neighboring countries resist military intervention. Algeria, a neighboring country in the north, holds an opposing attitude and mentions the lessons of failed intervention in Libya and Syria. Mali and Burkina Faso, which had previously experienced coups, also opposed military intervention.
Thirdly, there has been no precedent in the past for African countries to restore order through military intervention by regional organizations after military coups.
Al Jazeera, citing analysts, pointed out that Niger poses the biggest challenge to the Western Community in 30 years, exposing serious cracks in West Africa and surrounding areas.
Senegal, C ô te d'Ivoire, Benin and other countries have agreed to participate in military intervention authorized by the Western Community, and these countries are concerned that the coup in Niger may be replicated in their own countries. Algeria and Chad firmly oppose military intervention, believing that it will pose a direct threat to their own security.
Li Hongfeng, Dean of the School of Africa at Beijing Foreign Studies University, believes that from the current situation, there is a possibility of military intervention by the Western Community, but the probability of sending troops is not very high.
On the one hand, the Western Community has formed a military peacekeeping system for decades, and there have been multiple precedents for initiating intervention processes. In addition, there may also be support from the United States and France behind it.
However, on the other hand, military intervention is also subject to multiple constraints.
Firstly, the military intervention system of the Western Community itself has inherent shortcomings, including insufficient military strength and legitimacy.
The inadequacy of military strength lies in the fact that if Nigeria does not agree to send troops, countries such as Senegal and Cote d'Ivoire that support military intervention will find it difficult to succeed because their strength is relatively limited.
"At present, Nigeria's attitude is not positive, and its Senate does not support sending troops. Moreover, Nigeria is not happy with France's continued intervention in West Africa, which will affect its cooperation and unity with the French speaking countries of the Western Community."
The lack of legitimacy lies in the question of whether the sovereignty of the intervened country is violated in the military intervention of regional organizations.
Secondly, once the Western Community intervenes, it means further disintegration within the community.
Thirdly, if the Sahel region falls into a military conflict, all member states of the Western Community will bear catastrophic consequences. "This is the most important reason. Therefore, the Western Community needs to weigh the consequences."
"The situation is expected to remain deadlocked for a period of time," Li Hongfeng judged.
"What will happen after the deadline?" asked the BBC. In addition to military intervention, the BBC also offers two other options: one is for the Western Community to extend the deadline for the ultimatum; The second is to compromise, and the Niger coup soldiers and the Western Community have reached an agreement on a timetable for restoring democratic governance in Niger.
Zhang Zhongxiang believes that currently, the Western Community finds it difficult to let go of its status and has taken measures such as sanctions and border closures. However, as the situation develops, there is still a possibility of a political solution through peaceful means, including sending a delegation for consultations. The ideal outcome for the future situation is to establish a transitional committee in a period of time and hold general elections one or two years later, in order to achieve the goal of restoring power to the people. However, this also depends on the development of the situation.
Stirring up the game of great powers?
The unresolved situation in Niger seems to also affect the presence and balance of power of major powers in the region.
The United States and Europe have always regarded Niger as an important pivot to curb the spread of ISIS and Al Qaeda in the Sahel region of Africa. Nowadays, the stalemate in Niger has brought uncertainty to the Western anti-terrorism forces and military bases stationed in the country, with over 2500 personnel.
As the former suzerain of Niger, France was hit even harder by this coup.
The coup soldiers have shown their strength against France, threatening to abolish the security and defense agreement signed with France.
On the other hand, the West is concerned that this coup will open a window of opportunity for Russia.
Multiple media outlets have pointed out that anti French sentiment such as dissatisfaction with interference in internal affairs is on the rise in the former French colony of West Africa. Similar to countries such as Burkina Faso and Mali where previous coups occurred, some people in Niger see Russia as a powerful alternative.
Al Jazeera commented that changes in the situation in Niger may further stir up changes in regional patterns and the game of major powers around African affairs.
"The balance of power among major powers in West Africa is undergoing some changes," said Zhang Zhongxiang. For example, the powerful France showed signs of contraction, and the Niger coup soldiers abolished the military cooperation agreement with France. For Russia, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it has encountered multiple rounds of sanctions and diplomatic isolation from Western countries, and has also paid more attention to Africa than ever before to win the support of African countries. But France and the United States will not easily give up their political, economic, and military interests in Africa. In short, the Western control over Africa is gradually declining, and competing for power in the region is no longer in line with the trend of the times.
Li Hongfeng believes that from the perspective of power growth and decline, after this coup, Russia's influence in West Africa will expand, but the intervention of the United States in the region is also constantly increasing. In contrast, France's voice and action power in its traditional influence areas are weakening. At the same time, Africa itself, whether at the African Union level or the sub regional level, has shown insufficient intervention and governance capabilities.
Why is the situation so turbulent?
Since 2020, in the Sahel region from Guinea in the west to Sudan in the east, political instability has occurred in multiple countries, with coups taking place in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Sudan is still in fierce conflict, and the economic and security situation in the region has worsened.
Taking Niger as an example, due to Nigeria's suspension of energy supply, this country, which relies on Nigeria for 70% of its electricity supply, has fallen into widespread darkness. Meanwhile, 40% of the country's fiscal budget relies on foreign aid. As the West cuts off aid, millions of impoverished Niger people will face even more hardship.
Analysts point out that as we enter the third decade of the 21st century, there are underlying reasons why the situation in West Africa remains volatile.
Zhang Zhongxiang analyzed that first of all, Western interference is inevitably to be blamed. In 2011, the West launched a military operation against Libya to overthrow the Gaddafi regime. The rest of Gaddafi infiltrated West Africa by land and desert, and the turmoil in Mali was related to it, which in turn affected neighboring countries.
Secondly, Western intervention to a certain extent has also activated terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda that are entrenched in West Africa, further leading to instability in the situation.
Thirdly, in recent years, the epidemic has had a serious impact on African countries, exacerbating economic and livelihood difficulties, laying hidden dangers of instability, and having a particularly serious impact on West African countries where political instability persists.
Li Hongfeng believes that the Sahel and Central Africa regions already have various complex and unstable factors, and the game of great powers further causes fluctuations, one of which.
Secondly, security risk factors within the region, such as terrorism, tribal disputes, conflicts between political and armed forces, environment and development, and food crises, are intertwined, posing great challenges to local governments and regional organizations.
Thirdly, the varying levels of development and government governance capabilities among countries in the region, coupled with the gap in the cooperation capacity of the Western Community, hinder the efforts of each country to explore independence and achieve peaceful development. Due to the low living standards of the people and the difficulty in improving the level of national development, it has also led to insufficient cohesion at all levels.
