Is the handover of power in trouble after the election?, Popular candidate for Thai Prime Minister Pita faces investigation into power transfer after the election | Facing investigation | Popular candidate for Thai Prime Minister Pita
According to recent reports from foreign media, more than a month after announcing his victory in Thailand's general election, the leader of the Far Progressive Party in Thailand, Pita Linchallan, is facing an investigation by the Thai Election Commission for suspected ownership of shares in a media company. This may result in Pita being disqualified from running for office and add more variables to his ability to serve as the Prime Minister of Thailand. Analysis suggests that due to the lack of sufficient support from the Far Progressive Party to form a government, the handover of power in Thailand after the general election is facing difficulties, and the possibility of a power vacuum is increasing.
The path of the Prime Minister has been thwarted
It has been over a month since the Thai general election on May 14th, but Pita, who is considered a popular candidate for the prime minister by the outside world, has encountered another setback.
According to Agence France Presse, on the 12th, the Chairman of the Thai Election Commission, Eti Pung, stated that he is currently investigating whether Pita meets the candidate requirements as he may hold shares in a media company, which violates Thai election regulations.
Yi Tipeng also stated that there is sufficient information and evidence to further investigate whether Pita is eligible to participate in the election. At present, the Election Commission has established an investigation team.
According to Agence France Presse, it is currently unclear how long the investigation will take, but according to Thailand's election law, if Pita is found to have violated the law, he will be disqualified from running and face up to 10 years in prison.
Pita is facing an investigation involving shares in a company called ITV Television owned by his deceased father. Pita claimed that he inherited the shares of ITV Television from his father, but this was only to execute his father's will and he was not the owner of the shares. He also stated that these shares have been transferred and denied any improper behavior.
It is reported that ITV TV has gone bankrupt and has not aired any programs since 2007.
Analysis suggests that this matter may become the military's trump card against Pita. This is not without a lesson from the past.
In 2019, the predecessor of the Far Progressive Party, the New Future Party, performed outstandingly in the lower house elections. However, the election committee subsequently submitted the case to the Constitutional Court for acceptance, citing that the leader of the New Future Party, Tanaton, still held media shares in violation of the Constitution and election laws after participating in the election. The Constitutional Court subsequently ruled to suspend Tanaton's membership as a member of parliament. In 2020, the Constitutional Court dissolved the New Future Party on the grounds of violating the election law.
However, legal scholar Kantong from Chulalongkorn University in Thailand believes that since ITV has been suspended for many years, the original intention of election laws prohibiting candidates from exerting undue influence on public opinion has become meaningless. Moreover, Pita holds less than 1% of the company's shares, which is far from meeting the requirements for controlling stake.
Handover of power faces obstacles
If everything goes smoothly, the new Thai government will emerge at the end of July or early August. However, public opinion believes that the future direction of Thailand's political situation is still unclear, and the smooth transfer of power may face obstacles.
On the one hand, it is difficult for Pita to easily seek the position of Prime Minister. In addition to facing an investigation by the election committee, the current election system is also unfavorable for Pita.
The Far Progressive Party announced in May that it had signed memorandums of understanding with seven other political parties and formed an "eight party alliance" to seek governance. This alliance holds 313 out of 500 seats in the House of Commons.
But according to the current election system, the new prime minister will be elected by a joint vote of 500 members of the House of Commons and 250 members of the House of Lords. Candidates for the Prime Minister can only be elected if they receive more than half of the total number of votes, or at least 376 votes, from both houses of parliament.
Analysis suggests that the Far Progressive Party is the only political party that has promised to reform laws such as blasphemy against the monarch in Thailand, which has attracted a large number of young voters and made conservatives stay away from it. In addition, the 250 members of the House of Lords are all appointed by the military, which is also unfavorable for Pita.
On the other hand, if a new government cannot be formed in the near future, the "lame duck" government led by the current Prime Minister Bayo will also face difficulties.
In 2014, the Thai military launched a coup, with then Army Commander Prayut as Prime Minister and re elected in 2019. However, in this election, the Thai Solidarity and National Power Party led by Pak Yau only won 36 seats, while the Pride Thai Party led by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Health Anutin ranked third with 71 seats, and the People's National Power Party led by Deputy Prime Minister Bawi won 40 seats.
According to Nikkei Asia, the ruling coalition that currently supports the military can still temporarily retain power, but as they only hold a small number of seats in the House of Commons, if the opposition party unites, they may pass a no confidence motion against Bayo and others.
Regarding the possibility of a stalemate in the transfer of power in Thailand, Nikkei Asia pointed out that not only is the possibility of a power vacuum increasing, but Thailand's economic policies will also come to a standstill. Against the backdrop of soaring prices and declining exports, Thailand's economic growth has slowed down, and a series of economic problems urgently need to be solved.
According to Agence France Presse, if the highly popular Pita is prevented from becoming prime minister, it may trigger a street protest. In 2020, the decision to dissolve the New Future Party triggered protests and opposition from students in multiple universities in Thailand, putting pressure on the government.