During the Saudi Arabian Conference, what kind of competition is going on between Russia and Ukraine?, Depth | Unmanned attack "normalization" conference on Saudi Arabia and Ukraine | Unmanned attack | Russia-Ukraine conflict
A few days ago, after Russia and Ukraine launched a drone attack on each other's capital, on August 5th, Russian civilian oil tankers were hit by Ukrainian unmanned boats in the Kerch Strait, marking the second such attack on Russia in less than 24 hours. On the same day, multiple areas including Kiev were attacked and exploded, and air defense alerts were sounded throughout Ukraine. As the "war drama" between Russia and Ukraine unfolds repeatedly, a "diplomatic drama" related to the Ukrainian issue also appears on stage. From the 5th to the 6th, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia held an international conference on Ukraine, in which Chinese representatives were invited to participate, with the aim of playing a constructive role in promoting a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis.
What kind of competition is going on between Russia and Ukraine? What are the things worth looking forward to at the Ukraine Conference?
Embodied as "Black Sea regulars"
On the 5th, a Russian oil tanker was attacked by a Ukrainian unmanned boat in the Kerch Strait. Russia condemns the attack on civilian ships by the Ukrainian side and vows revenge. According to the Ukrainian side, it attacked a large oil tanker transporting fuel for the Russian military. Ukraine also stated that any explosion on Russian ships or the Crimean Bridge is an "absolutely reasonable and effective step".
The outside world has noticed that unmanned Ukrainian devices have frequently appeared in attack operations for a period of time.
Taking unmanned boats as an example, they played a crucial role in the attack on Sevastopol Port in Crimea in October last year and the attack on the Kerch Bridge in July this year. Since entering August, they have become frequent customers in the Black Sea, launching three attacks against Russian military and civilian targets in just six days. The first two were destroyed and repelled, and the third attack was finally successful.
Compared to unmanned boats that appear and disappear in the water, the "Heavenly Descending Killer" drones are equally defenseless.
On August 1st, the Moscow International Business Center was once again attacked by drones, marking the fifth time Moscow has been hit by a drone attack since July. On August 2nd, the Russian side used drones to exchange colors. Multiple explosions were heard in Kiev, and the mayor stated that drones were flying in groups towards Kiev
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian East European and Central Asian Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated that there is a trend towards the normalization of the use of unmanned driving equipment. Especially for Ukraine, these devices have low costs, good concealment, and have achieved mass production and localization with the help of the West, which helps the Ukrainian military launch surprise attacks on targets within Russia.
On the other hand, Ukraine has limited access to long-range strike weapons from the West. Since there is not enough treasure in the box, let's use drones to join in - they can enable the Ukrainian army to launch frequent attacks on important Russian military and political targets hundreds of kilometers away.
In Zhang Hong's view, the attack targets of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles highlight their strategic intentions.
Unmanned boats have recently targeted targets near the port of Novorossiysk multiple times. The port, along with six other ports such as Sochi and Taman, is considered a "military threat" by the Ukrainian military and falls within the scope of the expanded attack by the Ukrainian side. Zhang Hong said that Novorossiysk is an important hub for the export of oil from Russia and Kazakhstan. Ukraine hopes to implement reciprocal retaliation against Russia for cracking down on Ukrainian grain ports and putting pressure on the Russian economy.
Drones are specifically used to harass major cities within Russia, such as Moscow, with the aim of exerting political and security pressure on Russia and achieving the goal proposed by Ukrainian President Zelensky that "war will gradually return to Russian territory.". Zhang Hong said that although the S-400 has been deployed around Moscow, it mainly targets missiles and fighter jets, and is somewhat inadequate for "low speed and agile" drones. The number of armor S is not enough, and there may be "fish in the net" when defending.
Military expert Wang Qiang pointed out that unmanned aerial vehicles, as remote firepower delivery platforms, have advantages such as low cost and are favored by Ukraine, which seriously lacks human resources. The Ukrainian drones can also be combined with NATO intelligence and command systems to achieve efficient combat and improve attack accuracy. In addition, NATO has set a no go zone for Ukraine, meaning that it cannot use the weapons it provides to attack Russian territory. Now, adopting the model of "NATO providing spare parts and Ukraine producing its own military" can reduce NATO's concerns.
"From Russia's perspective, it still has ways to deal with drone attacks despite relying on traditional defense forces. It is difficult for the Ukrainian military to launch surprise attacks on strategic targets solely by drones. However, striking civilian targets will be relatively easy," said Wang Qiang.
In Wang Qiang's view, it cannot be said that unmanned equipment has changed the form of war at present, and there has not yet been a large-scale unmanned driving equipment war supported by artificial intelligence and information technology. But unmanned equipment has indeed become an important combat method in modern warfare, especially for Ukraine as an effective supplementary means of firepower strike.
Failed to break through the "triple defense"
Turn your gaze from the Black Sea area where the Russian ship was attacked to the entire Ukrainian battlefield. It has been two months since Ukraine launched a counterattack in early June. What is the current battlefield situation and how will it develop?
Zhang Hong said that currently, the Ukrainian army has not achieved the expected results quickly and has not "recovered lost territory" on a large scale. This indicates that the triple defense deployed by the Russian army in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - Dragon Teeth, trenches, and minefields - has played a role. The death toll during the Ukrainian counterattack announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense is 43000.
However, at the same time, the Ukrainian side is still launching an offensive at any cost, such as breaking through the first line of defense of the Russian army in the direction of Zaporizhzhia and launching an attack on the second line. This highlights two points.
Firstly, the Ukrainian army regards counterattack as a necessary political task. Because only by producing decent results can we live up to the support of the West, and Western countries that aid Ukraine can also explain to their own voters and continue to invest in Ukraine.
Secondly, the Ukrainian military has obtained anti-mine devices, cluster ammunition and other military equipment from the West, and has extensively used them in southern Ukraine. These armaments help Ukraine slowly advance forward. Although the speed is slow, there is a possibility of breaking through the second line of defense while maintaining this pace and momentum.
In Wang Qiang's view, the battlefield situation is still in a stalemate. In the words of John Kirby, the strategic communication coordinator of the White House National Security Council, the progress of Ukraine's counterattack is slower than expected and "really requires some patience.". From this, it can be seen that in the eyes of the West, neither the tactics taught to the Ukrainian side nor the effectiveness of the weapons used to aid Ukraine have been fully utilized.
When evaluating the trend of the war situation, Wang Qiang believes that the internal conflict in eastern Ukraine has been ongoing for 9 years, during which both sides of the conflict have built military projects and require group level offensive capabilities to "break through defenses". But what Ukraine has invested so far is mostly brigade level or lower combat units, mainly competing around villages, towns, and residential areas. Therefore, there is still a long way to go before breaking through the military engineering defense circle.
There is also public opinion that "for Kiev, the clock is ticking." Because in autumn, the arrival of the rainy season will make unpaved roads muddy, making military advance difficult. More importantly, by the end of next spring, the US presidential election cycle will begin: if Ukraine cannot make any decisive progress on the battlefield, the support of the US and NATO is likely to not continue to maintain its current high level.
The voice of "promoting harmony" expands
In sync with the "war drama" of Russia Ukraine's sharp confrontation, a "diplomatic drama" about Ukraine is also being staged. Chinese government's Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, has gone to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to attend the International Conference on Ukraine from the 5th to the 6th.
It is reported that Saudi Arabia has extended invitations to 30 to 40 countries, including Western countries that support Ukraine and most developing countries that hold neutral positions. Although Russia has not received an invitation, Saudi Arabia is expected to inform the Russian side of the meeting results.
Zhang Hong said that the Ukraine International Conference held in Copenhagen in June did not narrow the position gap between Ukraine and developing countries, and it is uncertain whether this conference can achieve a breakthrough. After all, the Ukraine issue involves competition among major powers and also involves historical disputes between Russia and Ukraine, making it unlikely to simplify such complex issues.
"However, dialogue is always stronger than war." Zhang Hong said, "If the conference can expand consensus and narrow differences, it would be a good result." Through this occasion, developing countries, Ukraine, and the West can also listen to each other's concerns, including energy security, food security, refugees, humanitarian issues that developing countries are concerned about, which can help all parties adjust their positions or soften their attitudes towards the struggle.
Wang Qiang believes that China's adherence to the principle of neutrality is a favorable condition for playing a constructive role. China's status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and the release of political stance documents on resolving the Ukrainian crisis are also highly valued by all parties. This time, China will still stand on the side of peace and justice, and engage in candid exchanges with all parties.
In Zhang Hong's view, this international conference also proves that the voices supporting peace through dialogue are increasing. The international community realizes that the West's blind pursuit of conflict will not help resolve it, but rather exacerbate it. Unfortunately, some countries such as the United States have not abandoned this approach.
There are reports that the United States may announce $400 million in military support for Ukraine next week. The US Army's M1 Abrams main battle tank is expected to arrive in Ukraine as early as early as early September. In addition, the United States is still waiting for Europe to submit the final training plan for Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilots.
Zhang Hong said that on the one hand, the Ukrainian military did not achieve a breakthrough after using the "Panther" tanks provided by the West, indicating that the impact of Western "equipment delivery" on the Russian Ukrainian situation is limited. On the other hand, the United States is trying to turn the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a protracted war, so that Ukraine can act as a pawn in the game of great powers to constantly consume Russia.
Wang Qiang said that the United States is actually using this war to kidnap Europe, forcing Europe to take sides and adjust its industrial chain in order to benefit the United States. The United States is also preparing for longer-term competition among major powers in the future, and should be vigilant about this.
