Don't you bring Russia to play yet?, Depth | Saudi Arabia plans to host the Ukraine Peace Conference next week | Jeddah | Ukraine Peace Conference | Saudi Arabia

According to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, according to informed diplomats, Saudi Arabia plans to hold a peace conference in the second largest city of Jeddah from August 5th to 6th, inviting high-ranking officials from Ukraine, Western countries, and developing countries to attend and discuss the path to peace in Ukraine.

As of now, Saudi Arabia and Ukraine have not responded to the reported meeting.

Analysts believe that the proposed meeting aims to continue wooing major developing countries to support Ukraine's peace plan and further isolate Russia. However, given that most developing countries have their own ideas for resolving the Ukrainian crisis and are unwilling to take sides, it is expected that the expected results will not be achieved.

Continue to woo the "Global South"

In foreign media reports, the planned Jeddah meeting is seen as a bridging event on resolving the Ukrainian issue.

Moving forward, the goal of continuing the Copenhagen Conference in June is to persuade major developing countries in South America, Africa, and Asia to support Ukraine's peace plan.

In the future, prepare for the upcoming global peace summit this year. The United States and Europe hope that the summit will sign a common principle document to resolve conflicts. These principles can lay the foundation for future peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and benefit Kiev. The European side hopes to narrow the differences between Ukraine and developing countries on how to resolve conflicts before the peace summit.

According to informed officials, senior officials from approximately 30 countries and organizations have been invited.

According to the invited parties disclosed by foreign media, they can be divided into two circles.

One is Ukraine and its Western countries and allies who support Ukraine. Including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Poland, Japan, South Korea, and other major European countries.

The other is the majority of neutral developing countries, including China, India, Brazil, Egypt, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Chile, and Zambia.

But Russia, the other protagonist of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, was not invited.

However, it is currently unclear how many invited countries will attend the meeting. Foreign media predict that countries that participated in the Copenhagen Conference in June this year are expected to attend the conference again.

The outside world has also noted the background and timing of the proposed Jeddah meeting.

In terms of warfare, since Ukraine launched a counterattack in early June, although it has recently entered the "main offensive" stage, from attacking the Crimean Bridge to buildings in Moscow, Ukraine has also faced fierce counterattacks from Russia. At present, both sides are still engaged in a fierce tug of war and are unable to break free from the deadlock.

In terms of diplomacy, this meeting coincides with a crucial moment in the game between the West and Russia to gain support from developing countries.

From a Western perspective, the United States and Europe are pushing for global condemnation of Russia's interruption of the Black Sea food export agreement; Recently, Europe and Latin America held a summit, deeply concerned about the prolonged crisis in Ukraine; Last month, the United States and India reached a defense agreement aimed at preventing New Delhi from purchasing Russian weapons.

The planned Jeddah conference is seen as the latest move by the West to woo countries from the "global south".

"The United States and Europe hope to promote international support for peace terms that are beneficial to Ukraine through this meeting that does not include Russia," commented The Wall Street Journal.

From Russia's perspective, it has just received visits from leaders from multiple African countries. At a time when the agreement for the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports has broken down and impoverished countries are at risk of a food crisis, President Putin has promised to provide free food to some African countries.

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian Institute for Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that an important background in planning to hold the Jeddah Conference is that the communication between the West and developing countries so far has not achieved the expected results. At the Copenhagen Conference in June, most of the participating developing countries did not fully agree with Ukraine's proposed "peace formula", which included demanding that Russia return all its territory and withdraw its troops before the peace talks.

"If Saudi Arabia holds this Ukraine issue conference, the main purpose is still to seek and accumulate consensus with developing countries, or to find relatively feasible and actionable solutions."

Dynamic Balance in Riyadh

A proposed international conference on the prospects of peace in Ukraine, hosted by Saudi Arabia, a major Middle Eastern country, has also attracted attention from the outside world.

The public opinion believes that this meeting is Saudi Arabia's latest move to position itself as a peace mediator between Russia and Ukraine, attempting to play a greater diplomatic role in the Ukraine issue.

Previously, through Riyadh's mediation, it has successfully facilitated the release of combatants from the United States, Britain and other countries, and the repatriation of Ukrainian children who remained in Russia.

Professor Ding Long from the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Foreign Studies University pointed out that from a strategic perspective, Saudi Arabia has always carried the "Dream of a Great Power" and "Dream of a Strong Country", striving to surpass the Gulf and the Middle East and become an influential and important country on the international stage. The Ukrainian crisis has given Saudi Arabia an important opportunity to enhance its international status.

The Financial Times commented that Saudi Arabia seeks to position itself as a medium-sized power with greater regional influence, while balancing its relations with the United States, Russia, and China. A person familiar with the Saudi government's ideas said that acting as a mediator has been proven to help achieve this goal.

In addition, according to Western diplomats, the reason for choosing Saudi Arabia as the host country for the second round of talks on Ukraine this time is partly because they hope to use the close contacts between Riyadh and Beijing to persuade Saudi Arabia to participate in the meeting. China has successfully facilitated the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, allowing the West to see China's diplomatic influence.

If the news from foreign media is true, then why didn't Saudi Arabia, which maintains a neutral stance and friendly relations with Russia, invite Russia to attend the meeting after the Ukrainian crisis occurred? Does this mean that Riyadh is starting to "reduce" its holdings in Russia and shift towards the West during the Ukraine crisis?

Ding Long does not agree with this. He analyzed that this is still a part of Saudi Arabia's dynamic balance policy.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries did not follow up the US sanctions against Russia. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia has also closely coordinated and cooperated with Russia, especially under the framework of "OPEC+" to support oil prices, which has given Russia political and economic support.

Since the beginning of this year, Saudi Arabia has made some moves in the Ukraine crisis: providing financial assistance to Ukraine in February, inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to attend the Arab League summit in May, and planning to hold the Jeddah meeting to exclude Russia in early next month.

"These three major actions indicate that Saudi Arabia, after providing valuable support to Russia earlier, is now slightly leaning towards Ukraine and the West, attempting to further balance between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and the West," Ding Long said.

Ding Long further pointed out that if Saudi Arabia does not maintain a delicate balance, but chooses sides, it is not in its interests, and will also limit its mediation role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Can the meeting achieve results?

If the Jeddah Conference is held, can it "light up" Ukraine's path to peace and even push for the start of negotiations?

Both scholars have no expectations about this.

"The interests and demands of all parties are vastly different, and the important party Russia has not been invited to attend the meeting. The meeting hosted by Saudi Arabia may only be an attempt and may not achieve breakthrough results," Zhang Hong said.

Zhang Hong pointed out that the main difference between the West, led by the United States, Ukraine, Russia, and many developing countries regarding the Russia Ukraine peace talks lies in the former's demand for the restoration of 1991 territories based on the status quo, while the latter advocates for the status quo as the basis. The positions of both sides are far apart. Moreover, all parties have set too many difficult thresholds for peace talks, including politics, security, international law, and so on. Therefore, even if negotiations can be initiated, they often have their own words and ineffective communication.

According to foreign media reports, relevant sources revealed that there were significant differences between Ukraine and most participating developing countries at the Copenhagen Conference. Ukrainian officials urge attendees to support Ukraine's ten point peace plan.

Developing countries have made it clear that they are more willing to discuss common principles rather than unilaterally supporting Ukraine's peace plan.

Ding Long said that although the Jeddah Conference was hosted by Saudi Arabia, the real promoter behind it was the United States. Its main purpose was not to seek to start peace talks or make breakthroughs and progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but to attract developing countries and further isolate Russia. "This is a conference with strong political purpose".

As for the winning effect, analysts are also not optimistic. Zhang Hong believes that developing countries have increasingly diversified views on the Western and even global order, and will not simply blindly follow.

The Power of Developing Countries

The two scholars also noted that in the process of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, developing countries have become increasingly sought after, which also reflects the growing status and influence of developing countries.

Ding Long pointed out that on the one hand, after the collective rise of developing countries, their economic size, diplomatic vitality, and international discourse power have all changed, and their opinions and viewpoints are more valued than before.

For example, for a period of time, there have been more voices and figures from developing countries on the diplomatic stage of dealing with the Ukrainian crisis. China, Africa, Indonesia, Brazil, and others are offering advice and strategies to promote peace talks, ceasefire, and end the war, running around. The position documents or peace plans proposed by China and Africa have also received attention from multiple parties, including Russia and Ukraine.

On the other hand, behind the crisis in Ukraine is a game of great powers, and the importance of developing countries as intermediate zones is becoming increasingly prominent, becoming objects of attraction and struggle for by the United States and Russia.

Zhang Hong interpreted multiple meanings from the voices and negotiations of countries from the "global southern" region.

Firstly, it indicates that more and more countries are concerned about the issue of Ukraine. The longer the Russia-Ukraine conflict lasts, the greater the harm to developing countries or countries in the "global south", the more they hope that the conflict will end as soon as possible.

Secondly, it indicates that the Western approach of pouring oil and attempting to solve problems through war is not recognized. "Because this road is impassable, it will actually bring greater risks and more loss of life and property, and even trigger nuclear conflicts. Therefore, countries in the 'Global South' are trying to propose other ideas and solutions."

Thirdly, it is of great significance for developing countries to release their voices. It can not only accumulate more positive energy to promote peace talks, but also exert more political and diplomatic pressure on the United States and the West, making the latter realize that they can no longer dominate the international system and dominate international public opinion in a multipolar world.