Can we change the situation?, The United States agrees that Denmark and the Netherlands will provide F-16 to Ukraine. The United States | provides F-16 to Ukraine | Denmark and the Netherlands

Multiple Western media outlets revealed on the 17th that the US government has agreed for Denmark and the Netherlands to provide Ukraine with these fighter jets after completing training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. It is expected that Ukraine will use this American made fourth generation aircraft next year.

Analysis suggests that US President Biden changed his previous attitude in May this year and gave the green light to Western allies to provide the F-16 to Ukraine. The current new move reflects the urgency of the United States to deliver fighter jets as soon as possible. But the symbolic significance of this move is greater than its actual significance, which may not help change the situation.

Expected to use fighter jets next year

On the 17th, the US "Politician" website quoted a spokesperson for the State Department and anonymous US officials as saying that the US has sent letters to Denmark and the Netherlands this week, promising to "accelerate" the approval of all necessary F-16 transfer requests so that fighter jets can be sent to the battlefield after Ukrainian pilots finish training.

"In this way, Ukraine can fully utilize its new military capabilities after the first batch of pilots have completed training," said an official familiar with US letters.

Reuters also disclosed this news on the same day. The report indicates that the 11 country alliance led by Denmark and the Netherlands is ready to train Ukrainian pilots to pilot the F-16. According to the Ukrainian side, the training will start this month and last for at least 6 months, possibly in Denmark, the Netherlands, or Romania.

The Politician website stated that Ukraine has submitted a training list of 32 pilots to the United States, but only 8 pilots have the necessary English proficiency to complete the training. Another 24 pilots must pass the language barrier before they can start training on the plane. Ukraine expects that trained pilots will not be able to fly F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine until spring 2024.

Forbes News reported that Denmark has about 36 F-16s in service and has kept over 20 more as backup. There are 24 F-16s in service in the Netherlands, and an additional 18 can be handed over to the Ukrainian side. In this way, the actual number of fighter jets that Ukraine can obtain from both countries is quite limited.

Forbes News pointed out that although the United States has stored many F-16s, most of them have been in the desert of Arizona for many years. Before handing over these fighter jets, maintenance and repair will take several months. Therefore, Europe's F-16 is the best short-term solution for Ukraine's fighter demand, while the United States serves as the long-term solution.

The United States is showing a new sense of urgency

Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February last year, although Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly called on Western countries to provide American made F-16 fighter jets, the enthusiasm of the United States has not been high. The main reason is concerns that this move will seriously stimulate Russia.

The Russian side has repeatedly reiterated that the F-16 is a fighter jet capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and the Russian side will consider providing the F-16 to Ukraine as a nuclear threat from the West.

However, in May this year, US President Biden's attitude changed on the F-16 aid to Ukraine, giving the green light for Western allies to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine. Analysis suggests that there are several major factors behind it.

One is that the war has gradually evolved into a tug of war, presenting a long-term trend. The United States believes that Ukraine should lend a helping hand at a critical moment to enable it to continue consuming Russia as a strategic competitor. And Ukraine has also made it clear to the United States that the F-16 will not be used to target targets within Russia, reducing concerns about the United States being dragged down.

Secondly, Biden is under increasing pressure from Congress and European allies. The Associated Press revealed that Biden's shift in stance was made after months of internal debate, particularly with Central and Eastern European countries showing interest in aiding Ukraine. US government officials instead believe that it is time to provide Ukraine with fighter jets and training to maintain the country's "long-term security.".

The Politician website points out that the Biden administration's decision to approve the two European countries providing F-16s to Ukraine indicates a new sense of urgency in the United States, calling for the aircraft to be deployed on the battlefield as soon as possible.

Not Ukraine's "magic weapon"

If the F-16 joins Ukraine's "arsenal", to what extent can it change the situation?

Analysts, including the US military, believe that for now, the role of the F-16 on the battlefield is limited. Even the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mili, admitted that the F-16 would not become Ukraine's "magic weapon".

Firstly, Ukraine has a limited number of fighter jets available, and the Ukrainian side expects that fighter jets will not be available within this year. Ukrainian Air Force Brigadier General Grubzov stated that a squadron consisting of 12-16 F-16 fighter jets would require 3-4 squadrons to change the balance of air power in a single direction. Today, Russian television stated that in order to achieve the desired results in Kiev, 200 to 300 aircraft are needed. The enormous financial costs and extensive infrastructure adaptation work are both major challenges.

Secondly, due to concerns from the US that the fighter jets may be captured by the enemy on the battlefield, Ukraine may not be able to obtain the latest F-16 fighter jets, which are expected to be F-16AM/BM. In contrast, Russia has around 1000 fourth generation fighter jets, many of which have higher performance than the F-16AM/BM. In addition, with the strong cooperation of the Russian military's air defense system, the F-16 cannot get any advantage.

Thirdly, the training duration for F-16 is usually 18-24 months, but the training duration for Ukrainian pilots during the "emergency period" has been compressed to 6 months, making them unable to handle high demand operations and reducing aircraft combat efficiency.

In addition, F-16 fighter jets are much more expensive compared to shells and ground vehicles, and logistics support and maintenance are more complex and costly. It also has a process of coordinating and exerting combat power with other American and Soviet made weapons.

Russian Senator Pushkov told Russia News Agency that the United States' decision to approve the dispatch of F-16s from European countries to Ukraine is symbolic rather than practical, highlighting its firm support for Ukraine at a time of stalemate in the war.

In Pushkov's view, the situation in Ukraine and the United States has not improved, which is why several F-16s are used to create illusions about military prospects.

The US Defense News believes that in terms of air combat alone, Ukraine's acquisition of the F-16 is not significant, as the clearly disadvantaged Ukrainian military finds it difficult to challenge Russian air superiority. But the reason why the Ukrainian army hopes to obtain the F-16 is more because of its powerful external capabilities. Ukraine has received some advanced air launched weapons from the West, and there are no technical barriers to using F-16 fighter jets to launch these NATO standard weapons. In the future, it is even possible for the Ukrainian military to use F-16 to launch cluster bombs.